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The 2020 Bihar Election Sentimeter

By REDIFF LABS
Last updated on: October 28, 2020 17:07 IST
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The Bihar elections are finally here in the midst of the raging COVID-19 pandemic.

Bihar will vote for the 243-member assembly in three phases -- October 28, November 3 and November 7.

Counting will be held on November 10.

IMAGE: Security personnel carrying electronic voting machines on their way to a polling booth on the eve of the first phase of the Bihar assembly elections in Gaya district. Photograph: PTI Photo

The major players in Bihar are the ruling alliance of the Janata Dal-United and the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Opposition alliance of the Mahagathabandhan led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal with the Congress and three Left parties.

In 2015, the JD-U was in alliance with the RJD and the Congress and defeated the BJP quite comfortably.

This time around, the JD-U is back in the National Democratic Alliance and looking promising to win the elections.

 

Rediff Labs analysed the 2015 assembly election results to develop a Sentiment Meter for the 2020 battle in Bihar.

A mathematical model is used to calculate how seat distribution will be altered as sentiment/percentage of votes towards a contesting political party changes.

Based on the change, each constituency is marked with the winning party.

A swing represents that the victory margin is close to the runner-up party.

Move the pointer on the Sentiment Meter (depending on who you think will get more votes) towards the political parties to see how the outcome is likely to change.

For more data driven journalism, check out Rediff Labs.

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