Explore the 'Thucydides Trap' and its implications for potential conflict between the United States and China, as highlighted by Xi Jinping, and understand the historical context of rising powers challenging established ones.
Key Points
- The Thucydides Trap describes the risk of war when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, exemplified by Athens and Sparta.
- Political scientist Graham Allison popularised the term, questioning if the US and China can avoid this trap.
- Historically, in 11 of 15 cases since 1500 AD where a rising power challenged a ruling power, war occurred.
- Peaceful transitions have also occurred, such as the United Kingdom's relationship with the rising United States in the 20th century.
- Avoiding the Thucydides Trap requires stronger communication and mutual understanding between the US and China to prevent potential catastrophe.
China's President Xi Jinping on Thursday spoke about the 'Thucydides Trap' during his summit with US President Donald Trump in Beijing.
The phrase is often used in discussions about tensions between powerful countries.
Xi said that China and the United States should avoid falling into this trap while talking about the importance of cooperation between the world's two largest economies.
Both countries must work together instead of moving toward confrontation, Xi said, in the context of Taiwan, warning against actions that could increase tensions in the region.
Taiwan remains one of the most sensitive issues in China-US relations.
Here is a quick primer on the origin of the Thucydides Trap, and why the ancient political theory still remains valid.
What Is The Thucydides Trap?
The 'Thucydides Trap' is a political theory describing the structural risk of war when a rising power threatens to displace an established ruling power.
The first time this was recorded in history was by ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who observed that the Peloponnesian War (431 BC-404 BC) was made inevitable by the rise of Athens and the fear it instilled in Sparta.
Athens vs Sparta: A Historical Perspective
Sparta and Athens were the two most powerful city-States in ancient Greece. Only 150 miles apart, they developed completely opposite cultures: Athens was a democratic centre of art, philosophy, and naval power, whereas Sparta was a militaristic oligarchy focused on strict discipline and land dominance.
The Peloponnesian War was caused by the growth of Athenian power and the fear that sparked in Sparta.
Modern Usage Of The Term
It was coined by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison first in an article in the Financial Times newspaper in 2012, where he argued that the defining question about global order in the decades ahead will be: Can China and the US escape the Thucydides trap?
Professor Allison elaborated on this concept further in the book, Destined for War (2017), where he examined the historical precedents of rivalry between established and rising powers.
Historical Outcomes: War Or Peace?
In 11 of the 15 cases since 1500 AD where a rising power emerged to challenge a ruling power, war has occurred.
In other words, only four times has the Thuchydides Trap been avoided in the last 600 years.
In the mid to late 17th century, war broke out between Dutch and the then emerging power England.
Later, in the 17th and 18th centuries France and England were locked in a battle for supremacy which finally ended in the battle of Waterloo in 1815 where French emperor Napoleon Bonaparte was defeated.
History was repeated when rising power Germany under Adolf Hitler's leadership went to war against the United Kingdom.
Examples Of Peaceful Transitions
The United States was a rising power in the 20th century but the United Kingdom, on whose colonies the Sun never set, never went to war with it. This despite the USA getting liberated from England in 1776, after which the last war the two countries fought was in 1812 resulting in the Treaty of Ghent.
Following this, the two nations gradually transitioned into an era of peace for 100 years.
In the years before the First World War the US liberated Cuba, threated Britain and Germany with war to force them to accept its position on disputes in Venezuela and Canada, backed an insurrection that split Columbia to create a new state of Panama -- which immediately gave the US concessions to build the Panama Canal -- and attempted to overthrow the government of Mexico, which was supported by the UK and financed by London bankers.
The Cold War Era: USA vs Soviet Union
When the Soviet Union rose to power and different Communist governments ruled Eastern Europe, the USA and the Soviet Union were at constant daggers drawn, especially during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.
Having promised in May 1960 to defend Cuba with Soviet arms, then Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev assumed that the United States would take no steps to prevent the installation of Soviet missiles in Cuba. The missiles could hit much of the eastern United States.
This led to the Cuban Missile Crisis and the threat to war only ended when the Soviet Union agreed not to send missiles to Cuba to avoid nuclear war, and the pledge that the USA would not invade Cuba.
Will History Repeat Itself Now In Asia?
If it does, despite Xi's warning to the USA, then historians will quote Thucydides to explain the catastrophe and ruins that will surely follow.
