Which way will WB, Odisha and Bihar go if LS polls are held today

CNN-IBN & CSDS has conducted a nationwide election tracker that covers the eastern states of Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha, the southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala; Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh of West India and three northern states of Rajasthan, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.

Lets’s look today at the eastern states of Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha.

The seat projection as per the survey says in West Bengal for the Trinamool Congress is between 20 and 28, Left Front 7 and 13, Indian National Congress 5 and 9, Bharatiya Janata Party 0 and 2.

The key findings of the survey say that the TMC is projected to get 33 per cent vote share if Lok Sabha polls are held on today in West Bengal.

If it slips further, it is likely to secure only 25 per cent vote share if LS polls are held today in WB cong likely to end up third in vote share; projected to get 19 per cent votes in WB.

WEST BENGAL

VOTE SHARE

Satisfaction with TMC govt in West Bengal has risen since July 2013

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 1264; Sample size in 2013 was 1397.

Six out of ten respondents satisfied with Mamata Banerjee’s performance as chief minister

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in January 2014.

3. Sample size is 1264.

Anti-state government sentiment in West Bengal seems to have decreased in last six months

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 1264; Sample size in 2013 was 1397.

 shifts from being pro-UPA six months ago to anti-UPA now

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 1264; Sample size in 2013 was 1397.

PM choice – Modi overtakes Rahul in West Bengal, popularity doubles; ahead of Rahul+Sonia+Manmohan combined

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 1264; Sample size in 2013 was 1397.

ODISHA

VOTE SHARE

BJD government still highly popular but satisfaction with its performance has declined somewhat in last six months

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Odisha in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 978; Sample size in 2013 was 627

Naveen Patnaik even more popular than his government

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Odisha in January 2014.

3. Sample size is 978

Anti-BJD government mood has increased since last survey in July 2013

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Odisha in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 978; Sample size in 2013 was 627

BIHAR

VOTE SHARE

JDU government’s performance still rated mostly positively but is down compared to last July

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 1317; Sample size in 2013 was 1735

Nitish Kumar’s performance as CM rated better than his government’s performance

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in January 2014.

3. Sample size is 1317

 state government’s popularity still as high as it was last July

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 1317; Sample size in 2013 was 1735

Most say Nitish govt. to blame for security lapse during Modi rally, including many Muslims

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in January 2014.

3. Sample size for overall is 1086

Lalu got adequate punishment in fodder scam case say most

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in January 2014.

3. Sample size for overall is 1317

AAP FACTOR

Awareness of AAP across the 18 states where the Tracker poll was conducted

Region wise vote share of AAP

Vote share of AAP across states

Vote shift towards AAP from other parties nationally (18 states)

Kejriwal as PM preference across the 18 states where the Tracker poll was conducted

Overall Methodology

• The findings are based on a survey conducted in 18 states, carried out by  Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies between January 5 and January 15. 
• 18,951 voters were surveyed across 1081 locations of 291 Parliamentary constituencies. 
• Women comprise 44.2% of the sample. 19.2% consists of Scheduled Caste respondents and 7.4% is made up of Adivasis.
• Muslims constitute 11.6% of the sample...24.5% are from urban areas.

Sample profile for Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and Assam

Note: Census figures for women, urban, SCs and STs are from Census 2011; *Census figures for Muslims are from Census 2001

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