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Report sees India's coronavirus toll topping China's

By The Rediff News Bureau
March 12, 2020 17:29 IST
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In a report for Brookings Institute on the global macroeconomic impacts of coronavirus, Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando present 7 scenarios on the impact of the virus outbreak. 

While scenarios 1-3 assume that the epidemiological events are isolated to China, scenarios 4-6 present the pandemic scenarios that assumes the epidemiological shocks occur in all countries to differing degrees. The authors note that while scenarios 1-6 assume that the shocks are temporary, scenario 7 posits a case where a mild pandemic is expected to be recurring each year for the indefinite future, they add. 

 

To explore the different scenarios they have used a ‘hybrid of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Models and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models developed by McKibbin and Wilcoxen (1999, 2013)’. 

According to the authors, of the scenarios 4-7, even the lowest of the pandemic scenario predicts the global casualty figure to be 15 million. 

India tops this list, with 3.7 million deaths, and China comes a close second with 2.8 million deaths. 

In all the four scenarios outlined, India tops China in the number of fatalities. Scenario 6 is the worst, and predicts more than 16 million deaths in India and 12 million in China. 

Impact on populations under each scenario

Country/Region Population
(Thousands)
Mortality in First Year (Thousands)
S01 S02 S03 S04 S05 S06 S07
Argentina 43,418 - - - 50 126 226 50
Australia 23,800 - - - 21 53 96 21
Brazil 205,962 - - - 257 641 1,154 257
Canada 35,950 - - - 30 74 133 30
China 1,397,029 279 3,493 12,573 2,794 6,985 12,573 2,794
France 64,457 - - - 60 149 268 60
Germany 81,708 - - - 79 198 357 79
India 1,309,054 - - - 3,693 9,232 16,617 3,693
Indonesia 258,162 - - - 647 1,616 2,909 647
Italy 59,504 - - - 59 147 265 59
Japan 127,975 - - - 127 317 570 127
Mexico 125,891 - - - 184 460 828 184
Republic of Korea 50,594 - - - 61 151 272 61
Russia 143,888 - - - 186 465 837 186
Saudi Arabia 31,557 - - - 29 71 128 29
South Africa 55,291 - - - 75 187 337 75
Turkey 78,271 - - - 116 290 522 116
United Kingdom 65,397 - - - 64 161 290 64
United States of America 319,929 - - - 236 589 1,060 236
Other Asia 330,935 - - - 530 1,324 2,384 530
Other oil producing countries 517,452 - - - 774 1,936 3,485 774
Rest of Euro Zone 117,427 - - - 106 265 478 106
Rest of OECD 33,954 - - - 27 67 121 27
Rest of the World 2,505,604 - - - 4,986 12,464 22,435 4,986
                 
Total 7,983,209 279 3,493 12,573 15,188 37,971 68,347 15,188
                 

In scenario 5, India sees more than 9 million deaths and China 6 million plus, while scenario 7 is a mirror image of scenario 4. 

The authors also predict the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the GDP of different nations in 2020 as a percentage deviation from the baseline, and here India does not come off so badly in comparison to other countries. 

In scenario 4, the lowest of the pandemic scenario, India’s GPD will be hit to the tune of 1.4%, and China’s to the tune of 1.6%. The impact on other nations is greater: USA loses 2.0%, European Union 2.1%, and Australia and Brazil to the tune of 2.1%. 

GDP loss in 2020 (% deviation from baseline)

Country/Region S01 S02 S03 S04 S05 S06 S07
             
AUS -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -2.1 -4.6 -7.9 -2.0
BRA -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -2.1 -4.7 -8.0 -1.9
CHI -0.4 -1.9 -6.0 -1.6 -3.6 -6.2 -2.2
IND -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -1.4 -3.1 -5.3 -1.3
EUZ -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -2.1 -4.8 -8.4 -1.9
FRA -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -2.0 -4.6 -8.0 -1.5
DEU -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -2.2 -5.0 -8.7 -1.7
ZAF -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -1.8 -4.0 -7.0 -1.5
ITA -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -2.1 -4.8 -8.3 -2.2
JPN -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -2.5 -5.7 -9.9 -2.0
GBR -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -1.5 -3.5 -6.0 -1.2
ROW -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -1.5 -3.5 -5.9 -1.5
MEX -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.9 -2.2 -3.8 -0.9
CAN -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -1.8 -4.1 -7.1 -1.6
OEC -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -2.0 -4.4 -7.7 -1.8
OPC -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -1.4 -3.2 -5.5 -1.3
ARG -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -1.6 -3.5 -6.0 -1.2
RUS -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -2.0 -4.6 -8.0 -1.9
SAU -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -1.4 -2.4 -1.3
TUR -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -1.4 -3.2 -5.5 -1.2
USA -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -2.0 -4.8 -8.4 -1.5
OAS -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -1.6 -3.6 -6.3 -1.5
INO -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -1.3 -2.8 -4.7 -1.3
KOR -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -1.4 -3.3 -5.8 -1.3

India’s GDP loses a whopping 5.3% in scenario 5, but again it is much better than the impact on the other nations’ GDP. 

However, when the GDP loss is converted into US dollars, India’s loss ranges from $152 billion to $567 billion, while China is seen to lose up to $1618 billion. The impact on USA is no less severe, with its GDP losing up to $ 1769 billion in the worst-case scenario. 

You can read the entire report here.

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