ISRO has projected wheat production of 122.24 million tonnes.
Using its various earth observation satellites, the Indian Space Research Organisation has estimated the total wheat production from eight major wheat growing states at 122.724 million tonnes. The estimates are as on March 31, 2025.
Interestingly, ISRO's wheat production estimates are higher than the government's earlier estimates of 115.43 million tonnes for the Rabi season 2024-2025. The government announced its advanced estimates on March 10, 2025.
ISRO used the Optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) remote sensing datasets from the satellites EOS-04 (RISAT-1A), EOS-06 (Oceansat-3), and Resourcesat-2A, for the Rabi season (October-March), 2024-2025.
The space agency said it monitored the sowing progress of wheat crop, across eight Indian states -- Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, Gujarat and Maharashtra -- during the 2024-2025 Rabi season.
The wheat sown area derived from satellite data by March 31, 2025 stands at 330.8 lakh hectares, which is close to the statistics generated by the ministry of agriculture and farmers welfare (324.38 lakh hectares) as on February 4, 2025.
ISRO in an experimental assessment of wheat production, at the national scale, assimilated satellite-derived parameters (crop area, sowing date information, in-season crop condition) in a process-based crop growth simulation model at 5km x 5km spatial resolution.
Based on a multi-source data integration, ISRO has projected wheat production of 122.24 million tonnes.
According to ISRO, the multi-source data integration is expected to enhance the accuracy of production estimation at a finer spatial level, supporting precise and scalable estimation of wheat production.
ISRO also monitored crop conditions, drought stress and the overall health of the vegetation using remote sensing based Vegetation Health Index (VHI).
As per the monthly monitoring, ISRO found the crop conditions in January was generally stable. But in February, rising temperatures and rainfall deficits triggered apprehensions about heat-induced stress during grain filling stages, raising concerns over potential yield losses.
'However, by the end of March, Rabi crops across India showed remarkable resilience, supported by favourable weather in late February and March. By March, crop maturity progressed well under improved weather conditions, leading to optimistic projections,' ISRO added.
Overall, Rabi crop conditions have remained favourable through late March 2025. Rabi crop harvest commenced in December, showing a progressive increase through January, February, and March and 1st week of April 2025, ISRO said.
The study demonstrates a methodology for near real-time, in-season monitoring of crop sown and harvested areas using multi-source satellite data.
The approach also includes progressive mapping of wheat crop area and production estimation. This pilot implementation of the framework serves as a Proof-of-Concept, highlighting the potential for operational scalability, ISRO said.
The methodology is subject to further refinement and automation to enhance accuracy and timeliness, ultimately aiming to support informed decision-making in agricultural planning and food security at the national level, ISRO said.
Venkatachari Jagannathan can be reached at venkatacharijagannathan@gmail.com
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
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