Multi-cornered contests, deep divisions within the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi, reflected in the Congress and Shiv Sena-Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray fighting separately and lack of a robust plan among its rivals helped the Bharatiya Janata Party in Mumbai polls as it looks poised to rule India's richest civic body for the first time.
As per trends telecast by TV news channels on Friday evening for 210 of the total 227 seats in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the BJP was leading in 90 seats followed by the Shiv Sena (28), the Shiv Sena-UBT (57), the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (9), the Congress (15), the Nationalist Congress Party (3) and others 8.
The BJP contested the January 15 polls in an alliance with the Shiv Sena led by Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, while Shiv Sena-UBT and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), headed by Uddhav and Raj Thackeray, respectively, had a pre-poll pact.
The Congress, part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) along with the Shiv Sena-UBT and the Nationalist Congress Party-Sharadchadra Pawar at the state level, tied with the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and the Rashtriya Samaj Paksh (RSP).
The underwhelming performance of the Shiv Sena-UBT and Congress has dealt a severe blow to the MVA, exposing deep organisational weaknesses and raising questions about the Opposition bloc's ability to challenge the BJP-led ruling dispensation in Maharashtra.
Political observers pointed out that internal contradictions within the MVA, ideological differences between the Congress and the Shiv Sena-UBT, personality clashes, and lack of coordinated strategy have undermined the alliance's effectiveness in the polls.
The split in the original Shiv Sena and the NCP, coupled with the Congress's decision to contest independently, effectively diluted anti-BJP vote share across nearly 200 wards.
The poor showing of the Congress and the Shiv Sena-UBT in Mumbai, once considered their stronghold, marks a significant political setback for both parties.
For Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena-UBT, the outcome represents nothing short of a political disaster.
The loss of Mumbai, the city that was the launchpad of the original Shiv Sena movement and remained under the party's control for over two decades, symbolizes the dramatic decline in the outfit since the 2022 split.
The analysts said if trends transform into final results, they will vindicate Shinde's claim to being the 'real' inheritor of Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray's legacy and suggest that a significant section of traditional party voters have shifted allegiance to the ruling alliance constituent.
The debacle could marginalise Uddhav Thackeray within the Opposition bloc. If the MVA regroups later, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, whose party NCP-SP is also a partner in the alliance, could be sidelined as the Congress has joined hands with VBA and RSP, they said.
The Congress's poor show underscored its continued inability to connect with urban voters, particularly in cosmopolitan Mumbai. Despite being fulcrum of the Opposition alliance at the Centre through the INDIA bloc, the party has failed to translate national-level unity among anti-BJP parties into electoral gains at local level.
Party insiders admitted that organizational decay, lack of credible local leadership, and failure to address urban issues have contributed to its lacklustre showing.
The setback has precipitated an existential crisis for the MVA alliance. With both major partners, the Shiv Sena-UBT and Congress, performing poorly, the coalition's claim to being a credible alternative to the ruling Mahayuti alliance appears increasingly hollow.
Both Shiv Sena-UBT and Congress now face the daunting task of organisational rebuilding and strategic rethinking. For Uddhav Thackeray, the challenge is to prove his faction's continued relevance in Maharashtra politics beyond being a partner in the MVA.
According to the observers, the final outcome in BMC polls, could trigger realignment within the Opposition camp, with smaller parties potentially reconsidering their alliance options based on the perceived viability of partners.
The analysts pointed to a singular, decisive factor behind the BJP-led Mahayuti's surge past the 100-seat mark -- a fragmented Opposition that turned the contest into a series of 'friendly fights' and multi-cornered battles.
The most glaring division occurred in the traditional Marathi heartlands. While the Shiv Sena-UBT and the MNS formed a tactical front, they were countered not just by the BJP, but by Shinde's Shiv Sena also.
In over 80 wards, the two Senas engaged in a slugfest for the same 'bow and arrow' legacy.
The Congress's refusal to join the Shiv Sena UBT-MNS combine proved to be the second major blow to the Opposition's prospects. By contesting alone, the Congress aimed to consolidate its minority and Dalit voter base. However, this strategy only served to create a three-way split in secular votes, according to the observers.
In several pockets, the presence of Congress candidates, alongside the VBA and the Samajwadi Party (SP), appeared to have acted as a 'spoiler' for the Sena-UBT.
This fragmentation ensured that the 'anti-Mahayuti' sentiment never reached a critical mass, they said.
Reports indicated at least 15 'friendly fights' occurred where alliance partners (anti-BJP parties) fielded candidates against each other.
These internal frictions not only confused the electorate but also depleted the Opposition's resources, diverting their focus from challenging the BJP.
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