'It brings precarious peace because the red lines have shifted.'
'The next Pahalgam attack would mean a full scale war.'
"India's Pakistan problem does not exist in isolation. It comes with other geopolitical factors like the difficult relationship with China," says Praveen Donthi, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, an independent organisation working to prevent war.
Mr Donthi is responsible for analysing existing and emerging conflict situations in India.
In a two-part interview with Rediff's Archana Masih, Mr Donthi discusses the precarious ceasefire and the long term instability that the India-Pakistan hostilities have triggered.
An unpredictable, uneasy truce has come about between India and Pakistan after rapid escalation. Will this ceasefire hold?
The situation between India and Pakistan has been very delicate since 2019. There was no diplomatic engagement and this escalation is a blow to the languishing relations.
The ceasefire brings a precarious peace because the red lines have shifted. Both sides are willing to take huge risks and therefore have boxed themselves into a corner.
The next terror attack will be the trigger for a higher level of escalation. The political climate and domestic pressure on both sides is compelling them into greater forceful escalation every time.
This ceasefire is a band-aid solution.
It has come at the right time because both sides were in the race for armed one upmanship and inflicting damage which prompted the US and other international powers to step in.
The ceasefire would have come as a relief.
Some observers believe this could be the lull to reinforce before another offensive.
I don't believe it's just a strategic pause before they retaliate further. I'm not pessimistic in the short term.
I'm pessimistic in the long term.
If India and Pakistan go back to striking each other after the US intervened to bring about a ceasefire, then they will be on their own.
The US has enough handle on both countries to rein them in the short term.
The worry is the long term instability that these hostilities have triggered. The next Pahalgam attack would mean a full scale war. And this time it will start on a much higher escalatory ladder.
How difficult are India Pakistan relations going to be after this near war?
India is looking at two difficult relationships at the same time -- China and Pakistan.
After the Galwan crisis with China in 2020, India renewed its ceasefire agreement with Pakistan in 2021 because it did not want to have two live borders at the same time.
This escalation has created a two front problem for India. India's Pakistan problem does not exist in isolation. It comes with other geopolitical factors like our difficult relationship with China.
India has to manage all of this along with its own ambitions of becoming a superpower, its growing economy and favourable external climate in the world.
As a rising global power, India has a lot to lose and has a lot to manage because of this escalation. The next few years will tell us how it's going to play out.
What do you think brought America into playing peacemaker after categorically saying that it was for India and Pakistan to figure it out. What changed?
In the first couple of days, Trump characterised the India, Pakistan hostilities as a problem going back thousands of years. It conveyed a sense that it's a benign conflict that has gone on for years. It is a periodic escalation that will sort itself out.
The US administration did not realise that the escalation dynamics have changed since 2016 and definitely after 2019.
The intelligence received by them must have revealed the spiralling matrix of escalation and probably forced them to intervene.
India has declined talks at a neutral site and reiterated that Kashmir is a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan.
How has Trump's offer complicated the situation? Will it have any bearing on US-India relations?
India-US relations are growing stronger and both sides are eager to build on it. This one incident is not going to affect it. But, yes, next time, India will be careful to impress upon the US administration not to claim the credit or make it public.
I would read President Trump's second post on X commending both sides as a damage control after taking all the credit for the ceasefire.
It's a battle for optics everywhere. Be it Ukraine, India or Pakistan, and every country wants to claim that they are in the right.
New Delhi's battle for optics has taken a beating because of President Trump's post.
The United States is a powerful, strategic partner for India. India is not going to get offended, but I think they will be more careful in the future.
It was undiplomatic of Trump to put India and Pakistan on the same page when the US has a deeper relationship with India than it does with Pakistan.
That is typical President Trump. He is undiplomatic.
This level of escalation was bound to invite international intervention.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
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