Vijay is counting on what was once proclaimed as his last filmi outing, Jana Nayagan, or 'People's Hero', to do the trick for him, when it releases on January 9, 2026, only months before the assembly poll, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Actor-politician Vijay's Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam's (TVK) formal announcement to field him as its chief ministerial candidate in next year's Tamil Nadu assembly elections has multiple ramifications for the evolving poll scene in the state.
First and foremost, it ends speculation of the TVK joining the AIADMK-led BJP-NDA Opposition combine, which was touted as being the 'victorious alliance', if formed.
It means that the state is poised for a four-cornered contest, with the ruling DMK-led INDIA bloc and another filmmaker Seeman's entrenched Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK) already in the fray -- of course alongside the AIADMK combine.
Secondly, the ruling DMK's allies like the VCK, MDMK and the two Communist parties had silently worked on the premise that a possible delay on the announcement of Vijay's chief ministerial announcement could be used to privately speculate on the AIADMK snapping ties with the BJP and joining hands with the TVK.
They could then either expect the DMK to be more generous in seat-sharing, or they could actually explore the possibility of joining the 'new, still-born front'.
Of course, even then some of them can hope to sign up with the TVK, if and only if Vijay could muster massive crowds when he kick-starts his state-wide poll campaign, now set to commence in September. But that's a different story.
No one is talking about the DMK's Congress ally, in turn the national leader of INDIA combine, having any such ideas, but that by itself is unlikely to alter the DMK's tough-talking on seat-sharing.
As coincidence would have it, the TVK's announcement on chief ministerial candidate comes at a time when the DMK's Stalin and AIADMK's Edappadi K Palaniswami have near-simultaneously launched their poll campaign.
Stalin's sloganeering on 'Orey Aniyil Tamil Nadu', loosely translated as 'Tamil Nadu stands as one team', is being keenly watched mainly to know the response to the DMK's simultaneously-launched membership drive.
Edappadi has since sought to drown, if not silence the BJP's idea of a 'post-poll coalition government' repeatedly reiterated by the party's chief national strategist Amit Shah while in the state recently.
The AIADMK felt that Shah was wantonly sowing confusion within the alliance by modifying his earlier stance that EPS would be the chief minister candidate, and declaring that if elected to power, the chief minister candidate would come from the AIADMK.
This gave rise to multiple possibilities that were being hotly discussed within the AIADMK: Did Amit Shah have a few AIADMK cards up his sleeve?
Or did he plan to force the merger of the OPS and T T V Dhinakaran factions with the parent AIADMK, the same way he had forced alliance-revival without much effort a couple of months ago?
EPS has since declared that the alliance remained, and he would be the chief minister candidate -- and there was no question of any talk on a coalition government until after the results were out.
The contention is that Tamil Nadu had abhorred coalition governments after the failed one at the end of the first general elections in 1952, and any talk now of a post-poll alliance dispensation could prove counter-productive.
Despite Amit Shah's initiatives and the BJP-RSS' efforts at centralising their Hindutva agenda through the likes of the well-attended conference on Lord Murugan recently, EPS seems to be keen on hijacking the alliance agenda, leadership and focus to the self and the AIADMK.
Early indications are that he might succeed, as Tamil Nadu is traditionally conditioned to pit only the DMK and the AIADMK against each other -- leaving other parties, however big, as their minor allies.
It used to be the case with the Congress when in power at the Centre and in many states across the country. It is the BJP's turn just now.
Or, that is the message that the AIADMK and EPS want to send out across Tamil Nadu, and also to distant Delhi, with the intent of making the BJP leadership and their friends in the national media understand and accept the Tamil psyche.
Against this background, Vijay's much-delayed entry into the campaign scene can cut either way.
The cadres on either side of the Dravidian divide might have been re-energised, and even a section of the strong bank of 'swing voters' of the past three decades might have begun tilting towards one of them.
Can Vijay swing them back to the centre first and to his camp next? It is a Herculean task, yes, considering that even a year after launching his party and six more months after announcing it, neither the party, nor the promoter, has made them as visible at the grassroots-level as others are.
Maybe, the expectation is that a fresh approach to politics and a fresh face on the campaign trail by itself can make a difference.
In this social media era, the messaging can reach the youth, especially men -- but the question is if the TVK can reach out to women voters, among whom many are acknowledged to be his fans.
Will they all automatically become Vijay's voters unless he and the party are convincing enough in terms of implementable electoral promises pertaining to their aspirations and expectations?
Unlike what unfriendly sections of the national media may continue to paint, Tamils had voted in their government and voted them out, based not on promises but on performance -- in ways they (alone) can measure.
Will Vijay fit in?
For now, speculation is split on whose existing vote-share will Vijay and the TVK take away -- or, take away the most.
While there seems to be some kind of a general agreement that Seeman may stand to lose up to half of his substantial eight per cent vote-share from last year's Lok Sabha election, the last word is not out on the DMK and the AIADMK, rather their vote-shares.
At the latest meeting of TVK office-bearers where the party announced their chief ministerial candidate, Vijay reiterated his continued opposition to both the BJP and the DMK -- for reasons that he has been speaking about periodically but not yet on a daily basis, as is required.
While this rules out any truck with the AIADMK after EPS has sworn by the NDA combine, speculation is that the TVK would cut into the party's vote-share, which was already low when it contested without the BJP ally in the LS polls last year.
However, there are those who silently underscore his Christian background, and acknowledged fan-following in the southern district, where the community has a strong to substantial presence in select districts and sub-regions, to argue that the loss may be greater for the DMK-Congress 'secular' combine, in the form of split 'minority vote-share'.
The truth lies somewhere in between, but neither speculation shows up a figure of above 30 to 35 per cent for the TVK to form a government and Vijay to become chief minister in his maiden electoral outing.
Incidentally, the forgotten social media speculation that Vijay was the creation of the BJP has begun resurfacing, though sporadically at present.
As if to substantiate such unproven claims, the fact of former Indian Revenue Service official K G Arunraj joining the TVK after taking voluntary retirement and Vijay appointing him to a party post are cited as evidence.
If reports are to be believed, Arunraj had headed the IT team that had raided Vijay a couple of years ago -- and there has not been much progress in the case, since.
Independent of all these, Vijay is counting on what was once proclaimed as his last filmi outing, Jana Nayagan, or 'People's Hero', to do the trick for him, when it releases on January 9, 2026, only months before the assembly poll -- and beating the annual Pongal season competition by five days.
A female actor in the film has since gone on record that Vijay had told her that Jana Nayagan being his last film would depend on the election results.
There has been no denial from the Vijay camp -- but that has also sowed seeds of self-doubt in the party ahead of their maiden critical electoral outing.
Over the past close to a decade, Vijay has kept the Tamil box-office ticking, rather noisily.
The hope is also that Jana Nayagan would end the dry spell of big star, big budget Tamil movies bombing at the box-office, thus far in the current year.
Of course, that leaves out Rajinikanth's multi-lingual Coolie that is due for an all-India release on the eve of Independence Day.
The expectations are that the film, through its box office numbers, would re-assert the superstar's numero uno status, regained through his 2023 film, Jailer, again a multi-star, multi-lingual.
For Vijay, such box-office comparisons will remain. Going by early promos, he plays a tough and honest cop (a role that he has played many a time in the past few years).
Whether or not the film's box-office success will bring in more voters, or consolidate his women fans especially as committed voters, if it bombed, his fans-turned-cadre might be disheartened on the film front and discouraged on the election front.
Just now, that may be saying a lot.
N Sathiya Moorthy, veteran journalist and author, is a Chennai-based policy analyst and political commentator.
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff
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