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As gold hits all-time high, jewellery sales drop sharply

By Dilip Kumar Jha
February 21, 2019 13:40 IST

Irrespective of the global movement, gold prices in India are nearing the level of Rs 34,000 per 10 grams in the physical markets.

Gold hit the highest in Zaveri Bazaar in Mumbai on Wednesday, following global move amid investors’ interest to take shelter in bullion on concerns of geopolitical tensions and the global economic slowdown.

On a medium-term base (last 3 months), gold price has gone up over 12 per cent in Mumbai.

However, analysts see hurdles in the near term for gold to rise further.

 

Standard gold jumped 0.5 per cent, or Rs 170, to close at the highest-ever level of Rs 33,725 per 10 grams.

Buyers were seen deferring purchases on expectation of a decline in gold prices in the near future.

Pure gold moved up similarly to hit the highest level of Rs 33,850 per 10 grams on Wednesday, compared to Rs 33,680 per 10 grams the previous day.

Gold price jumped by over 1 per cent in late on Tuesday trade in the London spot market after the London Bullion Markets Association (LBMA) reported a golden picture for its price move for 2019.

A survey conducted by the LBMA forecast gold prices would hit $1,405 an ounce (oz), $60 or 4.5 per cent increase from the current trading level of $1,344 an oz.

“Gold has more resistances than support. In the past seven-eight years, gold prices have come close to $1,400 an oz, but failed to breach this benchmark.

"This time again, fresh triggers are required for gold to surpass the psychological barrier of $1,400 an oz in the international markets,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director, Commtrendz Research.

Meanwhile, the LBMA report suggests gold price might witness a modest gain of 1.8 per cent this year - the figure is somewhat overshadowed by a $325 trading range.

“The markets have factored in some of the downside risks of Brexit and the US-China trade war.

"Other factors such as the US real interest rates, strength/weakness of the dollar, the likely impact of geopolitical factors, and the pace of global economic growth continue to provide some uncertainty,” said the report.

Leading global precious metals analysts have forecast gold price to move between $1,170 and $1,365 an oz throughout the rest of the current calendar year.

“Though the price of gold is rising, it still it has to cross a decisive bear channel that comes around $1,355-1,360 levels.

"Bears may not leave this channel easily and the price could come down,” said Debajit Saha, senior analyst-precious metals demand, GFMS Thomson Reuters.

Irrespective of the global movement, gold prices in India are nearing the level of Rs 34,000 per 10 grams in the physical markets.

“There has been pin-drop silence in jewellery stores, with hardly any customer footfall.

"One or two customers come only for exchange of gold ornaments.

"Even scheme-related purchases are being deferred on expectation of a price fall,” said Kumar Jain, director, Umedmal Tilokchand Zaveri, a bullion dealer and jewellery retailer in Zaveri Bazaar.

Silver followed suit and closed with a gain of 1 per cent to Rs 40,630 a kilogram on Wednesday.

Photograph: Reuters

Dilip Kumar Jha in Mumbai
Source: source
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