Benchmark lending rates unchanged with repo rate at 5.25%
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review.
The Indian stock market is poised for a volatile week, influenced by the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision, crucial global macroeconomic data, and the escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, according to market analysts.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
Even if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold interest rates in the October meeting, it acknowledged the scope for further rate cuts while waiting for the impact of the past steps to play out.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opted to keep its key interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, anticipating a global economic recovery following a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations.
The Indian rupee saw a significant appreciation against the US dollar following President Trump's suspension of military strikes against Iran and the Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain its key interest rate. Market sentiment was further buoyed by positive comments from the RBI regarding the health of the banking sector.
Indian stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, marking the first reduction in five years. The central bank also projected GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 at 6.7 percent and inflation to come down to 4.2 percent in FY26 from 4.8 percent in FY25. The RBI said the global economic backdrop remains challenging but the Indian economy continues to remain strong and resilient.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation.
Inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global trends would dictate sentiment in the stock market this week, according to analysts.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally, amid a weak trend in global stock markets.
The rupee appreciated 13 paise to close at 90.34 against the US dollar on Thursday, on trade deal optimism and overnight decline in commodity prices, even as the upside remained capped as investors look for more clarity on the India-US trade deal.
RBI cuts GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent for current financial year, from earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent.
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets' movement would highly depend on macroeconomic data announcements, global trends, RBI's interest rate decision and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. India's industrial production data for October 2025 will be released on December 1, an official statement said on Friday.
Strong domestic growth will continue to draw foreign investment into the Indian economy, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Tuesday. He said this was reflected in recent free trade agreements and investment commitments by large technology companies.
'Economic activity appears to have peaked in the second quarter of FY26, with industrial output, exports, and business confidence all softening from October 2025.'
From the Sensex pack, Power Grid, Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, HCL Technologies, Sun Pharma, Nestle, IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel and ITC were the major laggards. Tech Mahindra, Wipro, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, Titan and ICICI Bank were among the major gainers.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.4 per cent, from 6.9 per cent, on increased consumer spending and improved sentiment boosted by GST reforms.
'The government's decision to keep interest rates unchanged on small savings schemes will certainly constrain banks' ability to cut deposit rates further.'
Major laggards among Sensex constituents included Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel and ITC. Power Grid, UltraTech Cement, NTPC and Titan emerged as winners.
'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
The apex bank hiked its repo, reverse repo (overnight lending and borrowing rates) to 5.25 per cent and 3.75 per cent, respectively, while the cash reserve ratio, or the portion of deposits banks park with RBI, to 6 per cent in line with analysts' expectations.
Benchmark interest rate hiked by 50 basis points to 3-year high at 5.90 per cent. Economic growth projection for FY23 cut to 7% from 7.2% estimated in August. GDP expected to grow at 6.3% in September quarter, 4.6% each in December and March quarters.
From liquidity, monetary policy operations to financial inclusion, know about RBI monetary policy
The highlights of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
'Given the lag in transmission, further softening of lending rates may happen in the coming months.'
Reserve Bank will "wait and watch" the evolving situation before deciding on any further rate cut, Governor Sanjay Malhotra has said as he emphasised that both growth and price stability are equally important. With inflation on a downward trend, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has been reducing the benchmark repo rate and has adopted a neutral stance, which also gives the flexibility to either cut or hike the rate going forward. The central bank has cummulatively reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points since February.
'The statistical confidence bands of the fan charts of the forecasts will provide a better sense of the potential variability of outcomes.'
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday lowered India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5 per cent from 6.7 per cent on account of trade uncertainty and higher US tariffs that are expected to impact exports and investment. Despite the downward revision from the April 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO), India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.
The RBI's monetary policy committee is expected cut benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in its policy review meeting next month to push growth, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said on Thursday. "We expect the headline inflation in FY25 to cool off to 4.7 per cent. Monetary easing may be limited to 75 bps in FY26," Ind-Ra Chief Economist and Head Public Finance, Devendra Kumar Pant said.
Rs 5,000 crore additional liquidity facility to be provided by the National Housing Bank to boost liquidity in housing sector, the RBI said.
Monetary Policy Committee keeps key interest rate (repo) unchanged at 4% for 7th consecutive time; Consequently, reverse repo rate too remains unchanged at 3.35%; Bank rate also remains same at 4.25%;
Mixed views were expressed by top economists on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to hold the repo rate at 5.5% and maintain a neutral stance. While some say the decision was as expected and one more rate reduction is expected this fiscal, there is also a view that rate cut by MPC was warranted given the evolving global situation.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the status quo on policy rates for the fourth consecutive time in its October 4-6 review meeting. The incremental information available since its last meeting in August suggests that growth and inflation prints for the second quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24) will exceed the committee's projections. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is expected to moderate in the second half (H2) of FY24.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data announcements and global trends are the key factors that would dictate the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept key repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent in view of rising inflation and faint signs of economic growth amid gradual lifting of coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown. The central bank's newly-constituted monetary policy committee (MPC) began its three-day meeting on October 7 and maintained the stance as accommodative. It also kept the reverse repo rate unchanged at 3.35 per cent.
Let's wait for the monetary policy on February 8 -- to see how it complements the fiscal commitments, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
These are the highlights of the seventh bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2019-20 by the RBI amid COVID-19 pandemic:
'Deposit and lending rates have started to fall considerably. It is likely to spur investment and consumption of durables.'
© 2026 Rediff.com - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances