Benchmark lending rates unchanged with repo rate at 5.25%
* Repo rate reduced by 25bps to 5.25 pc; * 4th rate cut, totalling 125 bps, since February 2025; * MPC also decided to continue with neutral stance; * GDP growth forecast for FY26 raised to 7.3 pc from 6.8 pc;
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opted to keep its key interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, anticipating a global economic recovery following a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations.
The Indian stock market is poised for a volatile week, influenced by the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision, crucial global macroeconomic data, and the escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, according to market analysts.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
Markets will look for clear guidance on how the MPC interprets the uncertainty and what it implies for the future course of monetary policy, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that recent regulatory measures to address foreign exchange market volatility, such as capping banks' net open positions, are temporary and aligned with current market conditions, not signalling any structural shift in policy.
India's banking system is grappling with a persistent liquidity surplus exceeding Rs 5 trillion, driven by significant government spending and bond redemptions, leading market participants to anticipate the Reserve Bank of India will step up Variable Rate Reserve Repo operations to manage the excess funds.
Even if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold interest rates in the October meeting, it acknowledged the scope for further rate cuts while waiting for the impact of the past steps to play out.
The Indian rupee saw a significant appreciation against the US dollar following President Trump's suspension of military strikes against Iran and the Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain its key interest rate. Market sentiment was further buoyed by positive comments from the RBI regarding the health of the banking sector.
Indian markets on Dalal Street rallied sharply as easing tensions in the US-Iran conflict and stable oil prices boosted sentiment. Track Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex performance and key global triggers.
"It is quite possible that the rates will remain low in the near to medium term, but that will depend on how conditions evolve," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
The Indian government has extended the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) mandate to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a tolerance band of 2 per cent on either side, for another five years until March 2031.
The Indian banking system's net liquidity surplus has reached a four-year high of Rs 4.57 trillion, driven by maturing government securities, with further maturities expected to push the surplus to around 5 trillion.
India's wholesale price inflation surged to 3.88 per cent in March, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase, primarily driven by a sharp rise in crude petroleum, natural gas, and manufactured items amidst the West Asia crisis.
S Mahendra Dev, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, expressed confidence that the rupee would stabilise around the 92-93 level against the US dollar, despite geopolitical tensions, and that foreign investment flows would return.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected a 6.9 per cent GDP growth for the current financial year, citing concerns over commodity prices and supply chain disruptions stemming from the West Asia crisis.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected that crude oil prices will average USD 85 per barrel and the rupee will weaken to 94 against the dollar by FY27, according to its bi-annual Monetary Policy report.
'In investing, poor sentiment is always a good vintage to build a portfolio.'
A foreign brokerage warns that sustained crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel could push India's inflation above the RBI's tolerance level, potentially triggering interest rate hikes.
'The March correction was clearly due to the war and with prospects of that coming to a conclusion, there is a natural rally.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has proposed new measures to combat financial fraud in digital payments, including lagged credit for authorised push payments and a 'kill switch' for users to disable all digital transactions.
Maharashtra's Governor and Chief Minister, along with other state leaders, paid tribute to Dr. B.R. Ambedkar on his 135th birth anniversary, recognising his profound impact on social justice, equality, and the Indian Constitution.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant rally following the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, coupled with a drop in crude oil prices. The Sensex and Nifty both closed nearly 4 per cent higher, mirroring gains in global markets.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, marking the first reduction in five years. The central bank also projected GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 at 6.7 percent and inflation to come down to 4.2 percent in FY26 from 4.8 percent in FY25. The RBI said the global economic backdrop remains challenging but the Indian economy continues to remain strong and resilient.
Fitch Ratings on Friday said persistently higher oil prices could cause India's retail inflation to rise faster than the expected gradual pace, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in the first half of financial year 2026-27 (FY27).
Fixed deposits from nationalised banks delivered higher returns than equities, outperforming both inflation and stock market benchmarks.
Lenders are actively monitoring gold price volatility, prompting them to ask borrowers for additional gold collateral or partial principal repayment when loan-to-value (LTV) thresholds are breached, particularly for loans disbursed in February.
'When there is such an elaborate and a strong process, one would have expected anyone to either place the issues so that they can be addressed or go to the regulator and probably tell them rather than creating a kind of uncertainty for the stakeholders.
India's wholesale price inflation (WPI) increased for the fourth consecutive month in February, reaching 2.13 per cent, primarily due to rising prices of food and manufactured goods, according to government data.
With inflation comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent median target and likely to undershoot its 3.7 per cent projection for 2025-26 (FY26), there is room for the monetary policy easing cycle to be sustained, the Finance Ministry said on Monday. The comments, featured in the ministry's Monthly Economic Review for June 2025, assume significance ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) scheduled to begin from August 5.
After a 25 basis point rate cut in December, the RBI on Friday decided to pause on the policy rate front amid geopolitical uncertainties.
RBI cuts GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent for current financial year, from earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent.
Brent crude prices surged sharply on Monday, rising by more than 25 per cent to $116.5 per barrel, amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which has made crude prices bullish.
Indian stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices.
Gold prices are expected to remain volatile next week as investors track geopolitical developments in the Middle East and key macroeconomic data releases that could shape the sentiment in the domestic market, analysts said.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the key policy rates will remain at low levels for a long period and may go down even further.
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