Indian Oil Corporation's (IOC's) Q2FY26 operating profit of 14,600 crore beat Street estimates and was up 16 per cent on a sequential basis. It surged 287 per cent over the year-ago quarter on account of an improved refining performance.
Ahmedabad-based Torrent Group has completed the acquisition of a majority 67 percent stake in Indian Premier League (IPL) franchise Gujarat Titans.
Trends in the global energy markets are crucial if India's growth outlook is to remain healthy. Prices for the Indian crude basket were averaging around $86.2 per barrel through Q1FY25 and then moderated to $84 in July and to $78-79 in August (so far). But global crude supply may outpace weak global demand in the short term.
State-run Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) reported a weak performance in the fourth quarter of FY24 (January-March 2024), and the turmoil in the energy market indicates it could endure another lacklustre quarter. The oil marketing company (OMC) reported an Ebitda of Rs 10,400 crore, down 27 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) due to weak reported gross refining margin (GRM) of $8.4 per barrel in Q4FY24, which was almost half the consensus expectation of $15 per barrel.
The market responded positively to the Q1 results of oil marketing companies (OMCs), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) despite numbers being weaker than consensus. BPCL's reported gross refining margin (GRM) was in line at $7.9 per barrel (bbl) in Q1FY25, which implies marketing margin stood at Rs 4.8 per litre. Standalone profit after tax or PAT at Rs 3,000 crore was down versus consensus due to under-recoveries in LPG business.
Margins for the oil refining and retailing sector have moved off their peaks, and the average integrated margins (refining plus marketing) for oil marketing companies (OMCs) have normalised. The ascent in crude oil prices, combined with static retail prices, has depressed marketing margins for diesel and petrol. However, the fall in marketing margins has been offset by increased gross refining margins (GRMs).
The medium-term scenario for oil marketing companies (OMCs) is high risk due to the surging crude and gas prices. Apart from OPEC-plus cutting production, the Hamas-Israel conflict has caused fears of supply disruption. The July-September quarter of 2023-24 (Q2FY24) saw positive surprises for OMCs. Strong gross refining margins (GRMs) more than offset weak marketing margins.
Shares of Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) rose nearly 1 per cent on Tuesday, hitting an intraday high of Rs 2,986.05 per share, after most brokerages reacted positively to the company's March quarter (Q4FY24) results. The bullish outlook stems from Reliance Jio's potential tariff hikes, given the competitive landscape, along with slow but steady improvement in the oil-to-chemical (O2C) vertical.
Lower crude oil costs and higher marketing margins are expected to raise the fortunes of oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), while city gas distribution (CGD) companies could also benefit from lower spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, in a break from the past, growth trends are expected to diverge for various segments within the broad energy sector. Analysts expect the earnings from gas production to go down for upstream national oil and gas companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) due to the introduction of the new domestic gas pricing regime on April 1. After showing steep losses over the first half of 2022-23 (FY23), the marketing margins of OMCs have steadily recovered in four months.
After a spike in crude oil and gas prices in October following the Hamas terror attack, prices eased down 9 per cent month-on-month in November. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and Opec+ agreed to a further voluntary production cut in January-March 2024 to try and support global crude prices. The best guess here is that crude prices (currently at $75/barrel, or bbl) will not likely cross significantly above $80, and gas prices are also likely to remain subdued unless there's a further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Reliance Industries may report a muted performance for the April-June quarter of FY24, with most brokerages expecting it to have witnessed a year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) contraction in revenue and net profit during the period because of a poor showing by its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division. The O2C division, which includes refining and petrochemical businesses, accounts for a little over half of RIL's revenue and profit. A muted showing by RIL in the first quarter of 2023-24 may weigh on the overall corporate earnings, as well as the equity markets.
Crude and gas supply concerns have eased amid reports that Israel and Hamas have struck a peace deal. The International Energy Agency estimates oil demand may drop slightly in calendar 24 but Opec probably has enough pricing power to maintain $80/ barrel Brent prices. Russia's share of India's crude imports remained strong at about 35 per cent in September 2023.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the nation's biggest oil firm, on Tuesday reported a 31.4 per cent drop in the fourth quarter net profit as record refining margins were wiped away by a margin squeeze in petrochemicals and losses on auto fuel sales. Standalone net profit of Rs 6,021.88 crore, or Rs 6.56 a share, in January-March, compared with Rs 8,781.30 crore, or Rs 9.56 per share, in the same period a year back, the company said in a stock exchange filing. Sequentially, the profit was higher than Rs 5,860.80 crore in the previous quarter.
India's decision to ban the export of non-basmati white rice has pushed up global prices, prompting multilateral lending agencies, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to call for a reconsideration of the move. Though nothing has been spelled out yet officially, sources said, the government might consider requests for government-to-government sale of non-basmati white rice, especially to West African nations where India is a major supplier. Also, traders and exporters of specialty regional rice varieties like sona masuri or gobindo bhog feel that they have been short-changed.
Institutional shareholders of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) are expecting big-ticket announcements from the company, including timeline for listing of its telecom and retail subsidiaries. They expect this to unlock value in the company, which has seen a sharp fall in market valuation on Friday. This is due to windfall tax imposed by the Centre on refiners and oil producers.
The southwest monsoon has started on a weak note and this has delayed the sowing of kharif crops. Though a cause for concern, the situation hasn't reached a stage where it warrants any panic response. Moreover, according to meteorologists and industry players, monsoon rains will witness a revival in the coming few weeks.
The average estimate of 12 brokerage houses stands at Rs 6,994 crore for the June 2020 quarter. This is 30.8 per cent lower than the June 2019 quarter net profit of Rs 10,104 crore.
Reliance Industries Limited on Wednesday became the first Indian company to hit the Rs 19 lakh crore market valuation mark following a rally in its share price. The market heavyweight stock jumped 1.85 per cent to its record high of Rs 2,827.10 on the BSE. Following the gain in the share price, the company's market valuation jumped to Rs 19,12,814 crore in morning trade on the BSE.
A looming global shortage of diesel in Europe presents India with more than one opportunity to profit from strong margins. A shortage of the fuel, a key contributor to inflation, has been exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, and western sanctions on Russian fuel supplies. The slowdown in natural gas supply means the West needs diesel to heat their homes this winter.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said uncertainty over the bidder consortiums and process complexity, including valuation, may lead to potential delays in privatisation of India's second-largest fuel retailer, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL). Affirming BPCL's rating at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook, Fitch said it continues to treat the potential divestment of the company by the Indian government as an event risk. "Bidders are conducting due diligence, but uncertainty over the bidder consortiums and process complexity, including valuation, may lead to potential delays.
Analysts expect RIL to report consolidated revenue of Rs 1.40 trillion and 10 analysts expect RIL's net income to be Rs 9,629 crore
Gross refining margins may decline sequentially but improving petro-chem margins will boost earnings
'I would not suggest buying these stocks in the dip, as the upside in profit is dented without a safety net for a rainy day.'
The company's turnover dipped to Rs 64,990 crore.
The company raised Rs 53,124 crore through a rights issue and sold nearly 33 per cent stake in Jio Platforms Ltd - the firm that houses telecom business and apps - to likes of Facebook and Google for Rs 152,056 crore.
Reliance Industries is expected to report a 24 per cent drop in its net profit for the June 2012 quarter as compared to its profit in June 2011.
UBS said RIL's $10 billion petchem capex by 2016 will drive 12 per cent volume CAGR.
Refining major optimistic on planned investment of $16 bn for expansion and new technology to post healthy margins
The Street expects lower earnings from RIL's shale business to be offset by the sharp uptick in refining margins and the gradual improvement in petrochemical earnings.
Indian energy conglomerate Reliance Industries reported a nearly flat profit of Rs 5,511 crore ($895 million) for the December quarter but beat analyst estimates, helped by stable margins in its main refining business.
Reliance Industries on Friday reported a 4.5 per cent drop in its December quarter net profit at Rs 5,256 crore (Rs 52.56 billion).
Reliance announced a rights issue of Rs 53,125 crore, which it said was the biggest in India.
RIL's December quarter performance is likely to be muted
Consolidated revenue rose to a record Rs 163,854 crore.
Despite a massive underperformance at the bourses since the last six months, analysts are turning optimistic on Reliance Industries (RIL). Those at Jefferies, for instance, say that the company is a proxy play for India's consumption growth story. The key catalysts for the stock, according to a Jeffries note, include faster-than-expected market share gain in retail, oil-to-chemicals (O2C) stake sale, recovery in gross refining margins (GRM), potential public listing of Jio and even a possible banking licence going ahead. That apart, analysts feel any tariff hike in Reliance Jio (RJio) - its telecom venture - will also aid performance. With balance sheet adequately de-levered, proceeds from a strategic stake sale in the O2C business will create a sizeable war chest for the company, analysts say.
Profit from its retail business jumped 77 per cent to Rs 1,923 crore and that from telecom rose by 78.3 per cent to Rs 2,665 crore.
Reliance reported record pre-tax profit from its retail and telecom businesses. The two now account for nearly 32 per cent of EBITDA, up from close to 25 per cent previously.
Analysts remain confident RIL's refining and petrochemical segment will continue to support growth.
The database of 194 companies has shown a revenue contraction of 2.6%.
A plunge in fuel demand after the raging pandemic forced people to stay home and stifled the economy dealt a body blow to the firm's traditional cash cow oil refining and petrochemicals, even as consumer-facing businesses, which account for 35 per cent of the oil-to-telecom-to-retail conglomerate's revenues, continued to do well.
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