NDA edging towards 200-seat mark in LS polls: Survey

The CNN-IBN-THE WEEK pre-poll survey conducted by CSDS projects the National Democratic Alliance edging towards 200-seat mark in Lok Sabha polls. The NDA tally is projected to rise between 187 and 195 Lok Sabha seats just by gains in four states whereas United Progressive Alliance tally is projected to slip to between 134 and 142 Lok Sabha seats just by losses in four states.

Impact on alliance strength on the basis of swing in four poll bound states

(543 Lok Sabha Seats)

Tracker poll projects the BJP may trounce Congress in four direct contest states even in the LS polls. Congress is projected to lose 28 of 40 LS seats it won in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi in 2009. The BJP is projected to add 27 LS seats to 30 it won in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi in 2009.

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Tracker projects BJP may win 57 of 72 LS seats in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi and Congress may win only 12 of 72 LS seats in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi.

Delhi, MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan

(72 Lok Sabha Seats) 

The pre-poll shows that Narendra Modi gains as preferred prime minister in 4 poll-bound states. His tally has gone up from 26 per cent in July to 35 per cent in October, whereas ratings for Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi as preferred PM in 4 poll-bound states is up from 15 per cent in July to 17 per cent in October.

Modi’s popularity has gone up everywhere since the July tracker

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the rest gave other preferences;

Question asked: After the next Lok Sabha election who would you prefer as the prime minister of the country? (Do not offer any name and record exact answer. Consult codebook later for coding)

There is no change in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s 5 per cent approval ratings as preferred PM between July, October 2013.

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In a direct contest, Modi leads Rahul as preferred PM. 45 per cent back Modi against 29 per cent for Rahul. 39 per cent respondents in 4 poll-bound states also say Congress should declare Rahul as PM candidate and 36 per cent respondents in 4 poll-bound states say they have no opinion on Rahul as PM candidate.

(i.e., Rahul and Modi as only two choices before the respondent) Once again, Modi-Rahul gap is wide in Delhi and Rajasthan, narrows in MP and Chhattisgarh

Question asked: If you had to choose between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi as the country’s next Prime Minister, who would you choose?

Rahul as Cong’s PM candidate? Madhya Pradesh most positive about Rahul as Cong’s PM candidate; opinion polarised in Delhi.

Question asked: Should the Congress party declare Rahul Gandhi as its PM candidate?

Vote for Cong if Rahul is PM candidate? MP once again most positive

Question asked: If the Congress party declares Rahul Gandhi as its Prime Ministerial candidate, then in that case will you vote for the Congress in the next Lok Sabha election?  

Opinion on Rahul’s opposition to the controversial Ordinance

Question asked: Who should get the credit for stalling the recent controversial ordinance brought by the government relating to convicted leaders?

Opinion on Rahul’s opposition to the controversial Ordinance

Question asked: Now I will read out some statements related to the ordinance brought by the government relating to convicted leaders and Rahul Gandhi’s statements regarding it. Please tell me about each do you agree or disagree? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat)   

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Modi’s image among people is mostly that of a leader who takes strong decisions and who will develop the country. 

Question asked: I just read out five statements to you. Which of them is most applicable/suitable to Narendra Modi? 

According to the pre poll survey 26 per cent respondents feel Narendra Modi is a leader who takes good and strong decisions and 21 per cent feel he is capable of developing the country. Only 3 per cent feel he is not suitable for leading a coalition government. 

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