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5 states that matter the most to Modi

May 13, 2014 09:35 IST

5 states that matter the most to Modi

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Electoral results in five crucial 'swing states' are likely to determine the cliffhanger of the 2014 polls, in which there has been intense public debate on whether or not the Bharatiya Janata Party's prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, will achieve his party's 'Mission 272' and if the United Progressive Alliance will be sidelined.

These five states, which account for 249 of the country's 543 seats, have traditionally seen regional parties ruling the roost.

But this time, BJP is keen to make a decisive mark, either on its own or with help from allies.

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Uttar Pradesh

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With 80 seats, Uttar Pradesh plays a decisive role in government formation at the Centre.

According to all exit polls, BJP is likely to make massive gains in the state, riding mainly on the 'Narendra Modi wave'. The party is projected to bag more than 40 seats, compared with only 10 seats in 2009.

While the Nielsen-ABP survey has given BJP 46 seats, CSDS-CNNIBN pegs it between 45 and 53. The Times Now-Org survey predicts a massive surge to 52 seats, while CVoter sees BJP getting 54 in the state.

If these numbers indeed turn out to be true, the gambit BJP played here by making some major changes would have worked. The changes include moving veteran Murli Manohar Joshi from varanasi to make way for Modi and making party president Rajnath Singh contest from Lucknow.

The party had pumped in all its might here by bringing in Modi's close aide Amit Shah as incharge for the state.

For the Congress, which had performed very well in 2009, bagging 21 seats, the projections are disappointing - less than 10 seats according to the exit polls.

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Bihar

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For the BJP, which was banking on UP and Bihar, the two states seem to have delivered, bringing in as many as 20 seats.

According to exit polls, Modi might deal a body blow to Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United), which had split ranks with NDA over elevation of Modi as the PM candidate.

BJP's ally, Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party, most poll predict, could bag two to three seats.

For Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress party the exit polls predict a combined 13 to 14 seats.

This could mark, with 10 seats, the comeback of RJD, which had been written off after Prasad's conviction in the fodder scam last year.

If there's one unanimous view among all polls, it is that JD(U) will be wiped out in Bihar in these Lok Sabha polls, bagging only two to five seats -- a complete decimation from its exalted tally of 20 last time.

While Kumar could make a comeback in the assembly polls next year, Prasad would continue to matter at the Centre, though he cannot contest polls himself for 10 years.

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Andhra Pradesh

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Though Andhra Pradesh is voting as a unit in 2014, it is essentially the bifurcated states of Seemandhra and Telangana that are in the fray.

In the Seemandhra region, Congress held 21 of the 25 seats in 2009.

This time, it is left with just nine. Most polls have predicted a washout for the Congress here, with zero to three seats.

Several of the Congress MPs and ministers have quit and the fight here is between Y S Jaganmohan Reddy's YSR Congress and BJP's alliance with Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party. Reddy's YSR Congress might make an impressive impact, with all exit polls giving it more than 11 seats (Nielsen-ABP as many as 18).

The TDP, which had won four seats here last time, could bag nine to 15 seats, helping NDA in its overall tally.

In the Telangana region, the new state, there are 17 Lok Sabha seats. In 2009, the Congress held 12 of these seats, TDP two, TRS two and Owaisi's AIMIM one.

Congress is banking on taking credit for the new state here, but exit polls have given it between five and eight seats.

The TRS, which didn't ink a pre-poll alliance with the Congress, perhaps to ensure it got credit for to the new state, seems to make gained. The exit polls give TRS eight to 12 seats. The party and its chief K Chandrasekhar Rao are clearly on top in the new state.

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Tamil Nadu

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In this southern state, All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam supremo and state chief minister J Jayalalithaa appears to be making a massive sweep.

Most exit polls give the party more than 22 seats.

The CSDS-CNN-IBN survey sees it getting 28. It is clearly a win-win for 'Amma', whose party had won only nine seats in 2009.


For BJP, which has forged a grand alliance with several regional parties, the gambit appears to have worked. The NDA umbrella alliance could get four to six seats according to most surveys.

The M Karunanidhi-led Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam, which had 18 seats last time, might be reduced to a mere six seats, most exit polls suggest.

For the Congress, with no alliance in the state, it is but a footnote with just one seat; it had eight last time.

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Maharashtra

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The BJP is expected to have made massive gains, taking its combined tally with ally Shiv Sena from 20 to more than 30 seats.

The CSDS-CNN-IBN survey has given it 37.

The party, which was banking on its alliance with Dalit leader Ramdas Athvale's Republican Party of India (Athvale) to reap electoral dividends, seems to have succeeded in that.

The ruling Congress-NCP combine, which has been working despite its past hiccups, are projected to get nine to 14 seats.

The Congress had bagged 17 last time and NCP eight.

The Aam Aadmi Party might have made its poll debut in the state, bagging one seat. Both Nielsen-ABP and CVoter have given it a seat each.




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