Pakistan has failed to secure an invitation to next week's (December 5) Commonwealth summit, despite some discreet but energetic lobbying on its behalf by the United Kingdom and Australia.
The summit, due to open in the Nigerian capital of Abuja, is a prestigious event that confirms the respectability of those who are invited to participate.
But this is an honour that will be denied this year to both Pakistan and the Zimbabwean President, Robert Mugabe, who stands accused of electoral malpractice against opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.
Islamabad was originally suspended from the Commonwealth following General Pervez Musharraf's coup against the elected government headed by prime minister Nawaz Sharief.
The country has remained excluded ever since from the councils of the Commonwealth, although pressure for its readmission has been building up ever since last year's parliamentary elections.
The key to Pakistan's readmission lies in Musharraf's Legal Framework Order, which allows him to hold the positions of both chief of army staff and president, effectively reconfirming his position as the country's absolute ruler.
The Pakistani opposition has long advocated that the LFO must be abolished if the country is ever to return to proper parliamentary democracy. It is an argument that has found sympathy with the Commonwealth watchdog, the Commonwealth Ministerial Action group, which is required to endorse Islamabad's return to the fold.
When the eight CMAG members, including India, met in New York last September, they agreed that Pakistan's parliament remained deadlocked on the issue of the LFO, which remains an obstacle to Pakistan's full return to democracy and the Commonwealth.
At one stage in the months leading up to Abuja it seemed as if an under-the-table deal might be possible for Pakistan. This was because of those African Commonwealth members who wanted Zimbabwe back in the Commonwealth family.
Some African governments like Nigeria, according to Commonwealth Secretariat sources in London, let it be known that they would be prepared to do a deal on Pakistan if Mugabe was allowed to attend the Abuja summit.
But neither Britain, nor Australia, which is a member of CMAG, have been prepared to budge an inch on the Zimbabwe issue. So the end result is that both Mugabe and Musharraf will remain Commonwealth pariahs for the foreseeable future.
