As the poll dates approach fast, the scenario in Assam is getting clear gradually with the emergence of new political equations and combinations, though there is no formal alliance in place among the parties.
Election is being held in two phases in Assam -- on April 4 and 11.
The ruling Congress, which started the campaign from a position of advantage with the two main opposition parties -- Asom Gana Parishad and Bharatiya Janata Party -- failing to hold on to their alliance struck during 2009 parliamentary polls, now has to rethink its strategy.
The reason? The AGP and the BJP have exposed their covert understanding by not fielding strong candidates against each other's big leaders in the fray.
In such a scenario smaller political parties like Bodoland People's Front and All Indian United Democratic Front have become potential kingmakers after the polls.
This has prompted Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi to comment, "The people of Assam very well understand the secret understanding between the myopic regionalism of the AGP and the communal BJP. Both the parties will not be able to hoodwink voters this time too."
Gogoi maintains, "We have proved that during the last 10 years it is only the Congress that facilitated overall development in Assam and restored peace in the troubled state. The state's economy was at doldrums and law and order situation was at its worst when we came to power in 2001. Today, we are paying our employees regularly at par with their counterparts in Central government. We have constructed over 25,000 km black-topped roads and 3000 concrete bridges linking far flung villages during the last 10 years. We have brought so many militant groups, including the ULFA, to the negotiation. We are sure to win people's mandate once again."
The Congress has won two consecutive assembly elections in Assam since 2001 and is exuding confidence to win the third one in a row, capitalising mainly on a divided opposition camp. But the situation is not so rosy.
The prevailing dissent within the party over allotment of poll tickets has already prompted many senior Congress leaders, including former chief minister and minority leader Anuwara Taimur to leave the party in a huff.
Another factor that is bound to affect the Congress prospects is the in roads made by All Indian United Democratic Front -- an amalgamation of a dozen minority political groups led by perfume mogul Badruddin Ajmal.
The AIUDF created trouble for the Congress in 2006 polls as well by snatching nine seats from the Congress in its minority bastion. Realising the AIUDF threat, the Congress in its poll manifesto promises many sops for the minority communities.
Chief Minister Gogoi too has stopped his rhetoric against AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal who may get to play the role of kingmaker after the polls.
The regional AGP has decided not to have pre-poll alliance with the BJP fearing that it would drive away minority voters. An alliance between the two parties would have prevented a split in the anti-Congress votes.
In the 2006 assembly polls, AGP's vote share was over 20 per cent and that of the BJP was 12 per cent; their combined vote share was marginally more that Congress vote share of 31 per cent. The won 23 seats in while BJP won 10. The Congress kitty was 55
Giving a second thought , the AGP leadership has now apparently decided to have some sort of informal but friendly contest in polls with the BJP so that strong candidates of both the parties are not affected because of absence of a formal alliance and to ensure that Congress doesn't enjoy the unassailable advantage.
The new equation between the AGP and the BJP has virtually isolated the AIUDF in the poll scene. The AIUDF was getting cosy to AGP, but in the aftermath of the AGP reviving its ties with the BJP, the AIUDF in principle can't remain close to the AGP anymore in the pre-poll scene.
The party in now focused on winning as much seats as possible so that it becomes a major player after the polls that may not give clear verdict to any of the parties. The AIUDF has fielded candidates in 86 constituencies out of a total of 126.
The AIUDF has a strong presence in the minority-dominated constituencies in Barak Valley in South Assam and lower Assam areas. The AIUDF was formed just before the 2006 assembly polls.
It played the spoilsport for Congress by winning nine seats mainly by eating into Congress' traditional bastion among immigrant Muslims. It was one of the key factors that reduced Congress' tally of 71 in 2001 polls to 55 in 2006 polls.
The support of its ally Bodoland People's Front (BPF) which won 11 seats, helped the Congress to form the government comfortably in 2006.
The BPF had a pre-poll alliance with the Congress in the 2006 assembly polls. But this time the Congress has decided do away with the pre-poll ties with the BPF in order to keep the party base intact in Bodo tribe-dominated districts I Assam where BPF rules the roost.
However, Gogoi has clearly stated that Congress has remained grateful for the 'wonderful alliance' with the BPF during the last five years and that the latter will remain an alliance after the polls even if the Congress wins majority seats -- a move aimed at preventing the BPF from shifting allegiance to opposition camp after the polls.
While other parties are focused on electioneering, the ruling Congress has to remain vigilant against banned ULFA (anti-talks faction) besides routine electioneering. The ULFA anti-talks faction led by fugitive 'commander-in-chief' Paresh Barua has threatened to target Congressmen during polls to avenge Congress government's 'design' that has created rift in the ULFA to facilitate talks with the faction led by 'chairman' Arabinda Rajkhowa.
Some weeks ago, the outfit triggered a blast in the state Congress headquarter injuring three Congress leaders.
However, Congress is putting up a brave front against ULFA threat with Gogoi saying that the threat from the ULFA was nothing new. "We have alerted the party men to remain vigil against the ULFA threat. It will not affect our electioneering as Congressmen won't be cowed down by the threat from the ULFA faction that has feeble presence in the state today," Gogoi said.
He also tried to exploit the ULFA threat saying, "Why has the ULFA only threatened the Congress, not other parties? It may be because it has an understanding with the AGP and the BJP." The charge has been vehemently dismissed by the AGP and the BJP as baseless.
