With Wikileaks set to disseminate another tranche of classified Pentagon documents, B Raman peers into the crystal bowl to see what this installment of the releases might contain
Wikileaks announced on Twitter, that it will be shortly releasing its third instalment of classified US documents.
The first instalment of 77,000 documents related to the American military campaign in Afghanistan. The second instalment of 400,000 documents related to the American military presence Iraq. According to the Twitter message, its third instalment will contain a much larger number of documents.
While Wikileaks did not say in its message what the third instalment of their release would cover. However, a Reuters despatch from Washington DC said that classified US diplomatic cables reporting corruption allegations against foreign governments and leaders are expected to feature in the official documents that Wikileaks plans to release. It added:"Three sources familiar with the US State Department cables held by Wikileaks say the corruption allegations in them are major enough to cause serious embarrassment for foreign governments and politicians named in them. They said the release was expected next week, but it could come earlier. The detailed, candid reports by US diplomats also may create foreign policy complications for the administration of US President Barack Obama, the sources said. Among the countries whose politicians feature in the reports are Russia, Afghanistan and former Soviet republics in Central Asia. But other reports also detail potentially embarrassing allegations reported to Washington from US diplomats in other regions, including East Asia and Europe.
State Department spokesman Philip J Crowley said Washington was assessing the implications of what Wikileaks may reveal and was notifying foreign governments about the possible release. "We wish that this would not happen, but we are obviously prepared for the possibility that it will," he said.
The media has reported that the US has warned India and other key governments across the world about the expected release. Crowley has been quoted as saying: "We have reached out to India to warn them about a possible release of documents." Among other Governments reportedly cautioned are those of Israel, Russia, Turkey, Canada and the UK.
After October last year when Wikileaks reportedly developed electronic access to the data bases of the US State Department and the Pentagon and the US military formations in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US authorities were reported to have tightened document security to prevent further leaks. If this tightening has been effective, it is likely that the latest load of documents acquired by Wikileaks related to the period before October last year.
While corruption allegations as collected by the US Embassis in these countries could form a part of these documents, it is likely that considering the large number of documents mentioned by Wikileaks, the documents also cover US Embassy reporting on other subjects. Previously, Pakistan's relations with the US were the focus of Wikileaks. It now seems to be focusing on India's relations with the US too. It is, therefore, possible that in addition to corruption involving Indian personalities, the documents about India which have reached Wikileaks also relate to India's policies on Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran.
Among the various events relating to Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran in which India figured during this period, four could be sensitive from India's point of view. Firstly, the pressure exerted on the Atal Behari Vajpayee government by the George Bush administration to send Indian troops to Iraq. By July,2003, the Vajpayee government had decided to say no to Washington DC, but there was a lot of voices in Delhi in favour of accepting the US request.
Secondly, the papers captured by the US intelligence after the occupation of Iraq from the Iraqi government departments showing or corroborating the alleged involvement of Indian lpoliticians in contact with the Saddam Hussein government to acquiring preferential quotas for the import of oil from Iraq (the oil for food scandal).
Thirdly, the pressure exercised by the Bush Administration on the Manmohan Singh Government for voting against Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. The government of India succumbed to this pressure as a quid pro quo for the Indo-US civil nuclear co-operation agreement of July, 2005.
Fourthly, the analysis and assessment made in the State Department and the Pentagon regarding Pakistani allegations of Indian involvement in Balochistan.
Is it possible that Wikileaks might have also got hold of diplomatic cables between the US Embassy in New Delhi and Washinton DC on Indian political leaders, bureaucrats and policy-making? Has it also got hold of messages sent by the US Embassy in New Delhi to Washington DC about the escape of Major Rabinder Singh, the mole of the Central Intelligence Agency in the Research & Analysis Wing, to the US in 2004 and about the detection by the Indian counter-intelligence of a US mole in the sensitive National Security Council Secretariat in 2006? The documents to be released by Wikileaks need to be carefully scrutinised.