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Rains: North India need not worry

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi | August 06, 2004 01:37 IST

The monsoon arrived in north India well in time and the Indian Meteorological Department is optimistic that it will make up for any deficiency in rainfall, as it will last for two more months, till September 30.

"It is not correct to say that the monsoon arrived late in northern India," IMD Director S C Bhan told rediff.com on Thursday. "Barring 2002, the monsoon in this region has been arriving well in time. There is no pattern to indicate that the onset of monsoon is being delayed. The variation is at random," he said.

The reason Delhi and its surrounding areas received less rainfall earlier was because the monsoon's trough pattern was not strong enough.

Secondly, the trough (a long, narrow depression) in July this year remained close to the foothills of the Himalayas.

Bihar, Assam and the Northeast received abundant rainfall as they were situated at the foothills, he said.

In July, the trough was more pronounced for a larger number of days. Therefore, despite clouds gathering over Delhi and its surrounding areas, it did not rain and this sent out the erroneous impression that monsoon in this region had failed.

"Such a phenomenon is nothing unusual and it need not unnecessarily create misunderstanding. Monsoon remained in its weaker phase," he said.

"We knew that the monsoon was arriving in Delhi and the surrounding areas at this juncture (beginning August)."

The monsoon in the northwestern part came in phases, he said adding that it was 11% less than normal. But north India will receive rains for almost two more months. Bhan said the probability of the deficiency in this region being wiped out was as much as 53%.

"Out study of the historical records has shown that whenever there was deficient rain in July, it was made up in the next two months.

"The conditions are favourable. There is a low-pressure area in the central parts of the country and the western coast, including Maharashtra, Gujarat and south Rajasthan, where there has been good rain," he said.

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