The dramatic appreciation of rupee against the dollar during the last 6-7 months and pricing pressure on billing rates are forcing Nasscom (National Association of Software and Service Companies) to revise the total Indian software export figure for the fiscal year 2002-03 lower by 2-3 per cent from the earlier projection of 28-29 per cent.
Nasscom chairman and GlobalSoft managing director Som Mittal told rediff.com in Bangalore on Thursday that the final figures along with the exact growth rate would be put out in the next couple of weeks, as the official body, representing the Indian software companies, was collecting the data from its member firms.
"Though major software firms such as Infosys, Wipro and Satyam have declared their annual results, several other companies are in the process of doing so. Once we get all the numbers, we will be able to compile them and arrive at a correct figure to indicate the exact growth rate.
"But the indications so far are realisation will be less by 2-3 per cent from the estimated 29 per cent growth rate for the fiscal year under review. As our assessment is based on rupee terms, a marginal dip is likely on account of the dollar depreciating over the last few months," Mittal stated.
Asked about the outlook for the new fiscal year (2003-04) with the Iraq war coming to an end and oil prices starting to stabilise, Mittal said the upward trend was expected to continue though the growth rate may not be much higher.
"On a conservative estimate, the Indian software sector is expected to grow over 30 per cent during this fiscal (2003-04). We are upbeat about a rebound in the US economy during the post-Iraq war period though the ongoing SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) menace in China and South East Asia is a cause for worry, " Mittal declared.
Mittal, however, hastened to claim that whether the Indian software industry grew by 25 per cent or 30 per cent, reaching such targets was no mean achievement as no other country was in a position to grow as fast and higher than India in the face of a global tech meltdown.
Asked about the impact of the US call centre's decision to shift its base from Mumbai back to America as a result of the New Jersey's Bill against outsourcing from India, Mittal said Nasscom was in touch with the US governments (Federal and state) and North America's IT representative body (IDA) to prevent a repeat of such a move.
"As the call centre, eFunds Corp of Scottsdale, Arizona, which processes claims for New Jersey welfare and food stamp recipients, is purely a US-based company, there is little that Nasscom can do.
"Moreover, the call centre is handling the operations of the New Jersey department of human services, and not of any private company. We are, however, in touch with the authorities concerned to convince them of the benefits of outsourcing from countries like India due to availability of human resources and cost advantage," Mittal asserted.
"The Indian government and Nasscom has been assured of support by the chairman of the Indian caucus and the American IT industry in maintaining the current outsourcing trend. The decision of eFunds should be treated as a one-off incident," Mittal affirmed.
Allaying fears about curtailment in outsourcing, especially from the US, Mittal said there were bound to be such hiccups and noises as the services sector was also getting globalised on the lines of the manufacturing that happened over 10-15 years ago.
