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Rediff.com  » Business » Fear of the unknown tempers IPO hopes

Fear of the unknown tempers IPO hopes

By Joanna Chung, Sundeep Tucker and Joe Leahy
January 25, 2008 13:19 IST
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Last week's frenzy surrounding India's record initial public offering of Reliance Power was extraordinary - it seemed that everyone wanted a piece of it.

The company, expected to make its public debut next month, attracted $190bn for $3bn worth of shares from institutions and retail investors. This week, things could hardly be more different.

In Mumbai on Wednesday, there was talk of retail investors trying to get out of their commitments by allowing their cheques to bounce and there were also some withdrawals.

But Asian IPOs are not the only ones to fall victim to this week's precipitous falls in global stock markets. 

Stock market introductions from Hong Kong to Copenhagen to New York have lost their sheen.

Globally, 11 new share issues aiming to raise up to $5.7bn have been withdrawn or postponed since the beginning of last week, adding to the five already pulled before that, according to data from Dealogic.

But many fear the worst is yet to come - as the stock market upheaval of recent days takes its toll. "The last two weeks leading up to Monday was an unpalatable environment for IPOs," says one equity capital markets banker. "This week's market falls and the volatility have made it a near impossible environment." Wild swings in stock market prices make it difficult to price deals.

But, equally, as anxiety over global economic prospects - due to credit market turmoil and growing fears of US recession - deepens, investors are reluctant to take on what are perceived to be riskier assets, such as shares of companies coming to market for the first time.

On Monday, the Danish government postponed the Dk18bn ($3.5bn) flotation of Dong Energy, citing the poor condition of global equity markets.

The negative sentiment has even hurt prospects for well-known names such as Tommy Hilfiger, whose private equity owners' plans for a $2bn flotation of the designer clothing brand was thrown into doubt amid the stock market turmoil and concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending.

Until recently, bankers and investors were relatively optimistic about the prospect for new share activity globally, not least because they expected fast-growing emerging economies - and their roaring stock markets - to drive overall activity as they had done last year. 

The markets had priced in the idea of "decoupling" - the idea that even if the US slows down, the rest of the world will not, helped by growth in the biggest emerging markets such as China and India. However, the turmoil in Asia has raised big doubts about this idea.

"The new issues market was expected to be driven by emerging markets but now investors are reassessing everything about the new world they are investing in," says John Crompton, Merrill Lynch's head of equity capital markets for Europe, Middle East and Africa.

Sentiment is being affected by other factors. For instance, China's Ping An Insurance announced a $22bn share issue over the weekend, nearly double the country's largest IPO, exacerbating fears about the glut of shares for sale.

Smaller IPOs may be particularly vulnerable to shifting market sentiment. Steven Barg, head of equity capital markets Asia for UBS, says: "Big, liquid, quality companies should not be a problem, but some smaller listings could experience difficulties in getting away in the current environment."

On Wednesday, Cebu Air, the Philippines budget airline - which was set to raise $300m next week - and Changsheng China Property - a mainland commercial real estate developer that had planned to raise $145m this month- each put their IPO plans on hold.

But Jing Ulrich, managing director and chairman of China equities at JPMorgan Securities, says the IPO pipeline for Hong Kong and China is "very busy."

She adds: "The first quarter could be quite slow given market conditions and the volatility we've seen. However, I think the IPO market will pick up in the second half of the year."

Some issuers intend to press ahead with existing plans. Japan's Seven Bank said on Tuesday that it remained on track to list on Jasdaq next month, and raise up to Y50bn ($470m) - though the group, which offers banking services at 7-Eleven convenience stores, warned that it could pull the offer if market conditions deteriorated further.

The volatility is not expected to affect the timetable for the listing of several state-owned Chinese companies in Shanghai and Hong Kong in the coming weeks. The $4bn listing of China Railway Construction on Wednesday received regulatory approval from mainland authorities.

Meanwhile, a person familiar with Reliance Power's IPO says: "We are seeing some pulling out but nothing that worries us at this point of time."

Jing Urich, View from the Markets: www.ft.com/vftmDealmakers say the imminent Hong Kong listing of Maoye International, a mainland department store chain, expected to raise $905m, represented a key test of sentiment for the region. Meanwhile, in the US, 10 IPOs - worth about $2bn and coming from across a range of sectors including financials, chemicals and healthcare - are expected to price before the end of the month, according to Dealogic.

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Joanna Chung, Sundeep Tucker and Joe Leahy
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