There's sombre news for job-seekers. The economic recovery may not create too many opportunities for job-hoppers and students graduating next year. For, Indian companies did not lay off many people in the downturn; they are unlikely to hire in large numbers now for middle-management or entry-level positions.
Companies may do strategic hiring for specific skill sets, or there may be some activity in sectors like infrastructure or power. "Barring a few sectors like these, it is likely to be jobless recovery," says K Sudarshan, managing partner, EMA Partners International, an executive search firm.
Unlike in the West, there were no large-scale layoffs in India. Most companies bore the brunt of the downturn. "There's slack in the system and companies have no intention of hiring in big numbers," says Bharat Grover, partner, Vernalis India, a management consultancy that helps companies with shopfloor, marketing and HR processes. Besides, there are no triggers for adding people, say experts.
After earlier downturns in 2001 or 2003-04, key sectors like telecom, BPO, telecom and retail banking drove jobs and absorbed loads of jobs.
Shiv Agarwal, CEO for recruitment firm ABC Consultants, says there's no next big wave like BPO, retail or telecom, as no new industry is coming up. ''The existing talent pool is fairly larg, as the base has expanded. There will be churn. The usual factors like no increments will come into play," Agarwal says.
HR experts point out that the recovery is yet to trickle down across sectors. While the stock market is at a 17-month high, the real economy is still trailing. "There's no significant improvement in corporate performance. Sales volumes are up only 10 per cent," says Grover.
Milind Sarwate, HR head of Marico, feels the same, too. The recovery is not creating as many jobs as people would expect it to. Recruiters are still circumspect, Sarwate says.
But not all is lost. As multinationals hunt for growth in India and China, they will make investments but these will be more of the start-up type of jobs. The second wave in telecom could create 10,000-15,000 jobs in the next 12-24 months, says Agarwal. Insurance has a long way to go, banking will see some growth and brokerages are picking up.
But, retail continues to be in correction mode, and won't hire in large numbers unless there's a change in regulations. Real estate is still not adding people, despite a pick up in sales.
The information technology sector is adding fewer jobs than it did last year or the year before last. Infosys, for instance, plans to add 18,000 people this year, against 25,000 in 2008 and 33,000 in 2007. BPOs are also reasonably staffed and may not add larger numbers. Sanjeev Bhikchandani, CEO, Naukri.com, says hiring will pick up in a quarter or two.
He thinks IT hiring would pick up by the end of the financial year. Hiring in export-driven sectors will pick up once demand perks overseas. "I see hiring picking up over the next six months. Wherever there's a slack, it will take a quarter or two to recover. Large-scale hiring happens when GDP is grows at 8-9 per cent," he said.
But things could pick up sooner for some infrastructure sectors like roads and power that may add a significant number of jobs. Take roads, for instance. Every 100 km of road-construction would require developers and contractors to add 1,000 people across levels (junior engineer, material manager, quality supervisor, structural engineer and project engineer), estimates Virendra Mhaiskar, CEO, IRB Developers.
