Economic think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research expects India's Gross Domestic Product growth to decelerate to 8.3 per cent during current fiscal on account of poor external demand, lower capital inflows and rising interest rates.
The GDP growth rate in the current fiscal is expected to decline from a high of 9.2 per cent recorded in 2006-07 "as a result of tapered external demand, lower pace of capital inflows and higher average interest rate", NCAER's macro-economic forecast released today said.
According to the forecast, the growth rates of agriculture, industry and services are expected to decline to 2.6 per cent, 8.7 per cent and 9.9 per cent respectively from 2.7 per cent, 10 per cent and 11.2 per cent last fiscal.
Export growth rate, the NCAER said, is also likely to slowdown to 15.7 per cent from 17 per cent in the previous fiscal, while imports are expected to decelerate to 18.5 per cent as against 25 per cent.
NCAER's growth forecast is in line with the Reserve Bank of India projections that indicated deceleration in the GDP growth rate to 8.5 per cent as a result of global slowdown.
The International Monetary Fund in its recent forecast indicated that global GDP would decline by about 0.5 per cent in 2007.
The NCAER analysis, however, added it would be for fifth year in a row that India's GDP would be growing at a rate of over eight per cent.
