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Rediff.com  » Business » 'Market is never guaranteed'

'Market is never guaranteed'

December 28, 2004 17:33 IST
stockcrazy : damani ji wish you a very merry xmas. i have sold my mcdowell and bought into arvind mills was that a wise decision? as mcdowell is coming down sharply so i booked lil profit and exited.
Ramesh Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. Investors must make own decisions.You should follow your own convcitions.

KATAKIA : ON TRACK SYSTEMS with a small equity base of rs. 5 cr is entering into HR outsorcing with its base in cal. have u had a look at the company.
Ramesh Damani : Yes, but have no great details on it.

impatient : Hello Sir, is VSNL a buy or wait&watch at current levels. The stock seems to be receding fast in the past 2 days.
Ramesh Damani : I can't and won't comment on every day price movements. Also I never know the reasons.

xyz : sir can we buy Hinduja TMT at current level
Ramesh Damani : They should do well over the next one year.

JesseLivermore : Sir, you've held UB holdings, you hold Tata Investment Corporation. By similar logic, do we assume you also hold Jindal Strips?
Ramesh Damani : No I don't. The quality of the underlying assets is also important.

shanth : Rameshjii at the outset wish you very happy profitable new year 2005 and joyable new year your family on behalf of all of your fans. Your last year top picks GAIL,SBI & sundaram fin. has not lived upto your expectation.Why? We request your top picks for 2005. Thanks.
Ramesh Damani : I am pretty happy with them. They are great companies doing well. When the market rewards them is the marekt's prerogative.

baracuda : do yu see the margins of nucleus also coming under pressure due to a rise in the rupee and the wage bill,even then do yu still recomend a buy
Ramesh Damani : It could but they are becoming a product company and that should protect them.

chints : HEllo sir any idea abt SAnjivani Parrental?
Ramesh Damani : No knowledge.

stockcrazy : damani ji I met you on the CNBC masterclass and benefited immensely from your lecture.now i wont sell my tata tele just because it double i will keep on holding it for a very long time.wish you a prosperous new year.
Ramesh Damani : That is the idea. Water the flowers not the weeds. Overtime this strategy will help you a lot. It may not be good over one stock.The principle is ride your winners and cut your losses.

KATAKIA : IA says, UB HOLDING will start generating revenues in the form of rentals from the current quarter. does it look a compelling buy at the current levels
Ramesh Damani : Stock looks cheap to me. I own it. It is going to be Mallya flagship company.

pawan : sir last week you said you will give new stocks this week. will you give it today sir
Ramesh Damani : Don't have any new ideas. However some of the stocks I have recommended previosuly looks good to me.

Sharad : Sir I also want your view about the Fertilizer ind...they have 8 yrs cycle and with the FM's views about Fert. Subsidy ,your pick in this segment????
Ramesh Damani : I own EID but have no great insight in this sector.

sanujkadavil : SirUB holdings ,definitely becoming the flagship of UB group. And it holds the huge and valuable assets like Mcowell, UB beer, aventis, UB city kingfisherairlines. Yesterday businessline quoted about UB holdings and says value of their listed investments equals to 340rs/ share.
Ramesh Damani : I read the article. I think when they launch the airline it will attract fresh attention.

ruthwick : Hi, Corporate governance is much to be improved. Room for transparemcy and disclosure norms need to be improved. But for the differences between the brothers, we would not have come to know about sweat deal in Reliance. In this regard, how sanguine your judgement to go long term investment in India. Your comments please.....
Ramesh Damani : Corporate governance world over is to be taken with a grain of salt. Only very very few companies actually follow it in spirit and letter.

Madhu : Hello Sir,Advance Happy New year
Ramesh Damani : Thanks the same to you.

sunil : SIR WHERE DO YOU SEE THE RETAIL INVESTORS FROM HERE ON
Ramesh Damani : They will have to enter the market. No other options.

baracuda : i suppose yu read that gillete india has now been included in the asia pacific basketand the process of restructuring at top managerial level has started do still like the co as a long term investment
Ramesh Damani : Yes, I think so.

Ramu : Why has the stock market Bull Run has not been hampered by the tsunami?
Ramesh Damani : Bull markets climb "seas" of worries. Tthat is the truism.

JesseLivermore : Sir, Jim Rogers is bearish on India. Recommeds Short selling. You read his Fortune Interview?
Ramesh Damani : No, but he is bearish. He is bullish on commodities.

pawan : sir all the low price stocks snalyst says dont enter. example hfcl was once 700 .. 8 days ago it was 8. now it is 17. sir its a cycle the stocks at 1000 would become at 10 & vice versa. whats your view on it sir'
Ramesh Damani : I don't believe these things.

shanth : Dear sir, I am listing your favorite stocks. Please rank them for the benefit all chaters. Godfrey, VST,GAIL,UB holding, Nucleous, tata Elxi,Venkeys Sundaram Finance, Honeywell,Tisco, VSNL,aravind products, Shri Raj, IGL, Gujarat gas, Swaraj Engines etc. Thanks
Ramesh Damani : The list is too widespread. Looking ahead Nucleus, Elxsi, Balmer, Honeywell should be good. I own them all.

ruthwick : Thanks for the reply. Regarding the product development S/W companies, we had a very bad experience with Visualsoft. Why and How do you think Nucleus Software is going to be different? What are the products it is developing? How can they withstand obsolence and piracy??? I am just curious.... Most of the prodcu development companies are not getting discounted properly in US? What are your comments on I2 technologies?
Ramesh Damani : Look at the market caps and quality of balance sheet. Visual at a peak had a market cap of over 6000 crs. This is touching 250 crs.There are no guarantees of course. I own Nucleus.

KATAKIA : how much dividend payout do u expect from swaraj engines.
Ramesh Damani : Between Rs 15-20. I own it.

shanth : Bharat ratna Ramesh S damani the stock market should do some thing to our beloved brothers who lost thier lives. Why it is not correcting for the natural disastor?! A strange thing which can happen in india alone?!
Ramesh Damani : I think they will and we can do it as individuals. By giving money to the PM's Relief fund.

sreedhar : SIR, PLEEEEEAAAAAAAAASSSEEEE Recommend some pharma stocks..b/w cipla, indswift and aarthi drugs, which one will u prefer???
Ramesh Damani : If I had to buy one I would buy Cipla.

warrenbuffet : Can anyone tell me Which stock is UB Holding? What is its price? NO ONE IS ANSWERING ME. Mr. Damani If you could.... I bought one at 108. IS THIS THE RIGHT ONE
Ramesh Damani : That seems right.

susmita : goodevening sir , pls let me know ur views on ispat industries ,sonata software , national steel & agro , supreme petro chem. if u were to pick from this , what would be ur pick?
Ramesh Damani : I don't like to comment on individual portfolios.

Madhu : Sir, is there any equation to calculate the stock price based on EPS,PE and MarketCap etc?
Ramesh Damani : eps*pe= Marpet priceMcap/nos of shares outstanding - price of share

sudhir : sir a lot of your stocks like macmillan, sundaram fin are untouchedin this bull run .do u think they would hold value when the market corrects
Ramesh Damani : It depends on your price point ... Mcmillan and Sundaram Finance were110 at the 2003 lows. They are currently at 350 and 260.

Sujal : Hello Sir, i am a finace student . i was doing a survey about valuations of Sensex stocks. Among on of the cheapest is Tisco. Last years peak was at 10X FY04 EPS. This year people say it will have a EPS Of 55 so what can be right Pe for this cyclical stock. Please answer
Ramesh Damani : That is difficult to decide. Market decides that. The wisdom is to buy cyclical stocks at high PE's and sell them when they are at very low PE's. Having said that Tisco looks good for a little more.

pawan : sir are you bullish on tisco ? please reply sir
Ramesh Damani : Yes

ashu  :  sir when you coming on taking stock , we need some sensible talk on taking stock .. is Nucleus still your favourite pick at the moment sir when you coming on taking stock , we need some sensible talk on taking stock .. is Nucleus still your favourite pick at the moment
Ramesh Damani : I like the stock a lot.

chandani : sir BALMER IS IT BALMER LAWRIE [160] current price?/as there are three balmer stocks and one has run up about 100 %
Ramesh Damani : The one around 160.

ashu  : is this you sir , I will sell everything and buy VST if its youIn February 2001, Mumbai-based stockbroker R S Damani made an open offer to acquire 20 per cent in VST at Rs 112 per share through Bright Star Investments, an investment company of Damani. In March 2001, Russel Credit, a subsidiary of ITC, made a counter offer to the original bid made by Bright Star Investments to acquire 20 per cent at Rs 115. On May 15, Bright Star raised the offer price to Rs 118 per share. Immediately, on May 22, Russel Credit revised its offer price to Rs 120 per share and further to Rs 125 per share on May 31. On June 4, Bright Star hiked the offer price to Rs 151 per share and also raised the offer size to 30 per cent from the previous 20 per cent.
Ramesh Damani : It's not me, though I own VST.

sudhir : thanks for answering but i think they had not generated returns like your other stockslike opto, nucleus and i think for the last 6 months they are stagnant
Ramesh Damani : I avoid trying to time the market.Good things happen to patient investors in good stocks. Have convcition is what I tell my dealing room.

sanujkadevil : sirdid you got any news on ABEE INFO CONSUMABLES. did you gone through its website. i didn't gwt the B/S yet.
Ramesh Damani : No news.

chetan : FCI OEN Connectors - i bought some on my brokers reco for 2-3 yr time. recently some brokerage house said on cnbc it is a huge growth story. any comments or advice?
Ramesh Damani : Good stock doing well having a good year. I own a small amount.

sanujkadevil : SirWhats your new year picks. Your 2004 portfolio outperformed all the competitors, UB HOLDINS, SUNDARAM, TATA EXSI, SUNDARAM, KSB, beml, ub,ub holdingc etcWhats your pick for YEAR 2005. last time you promised to give on 2004's last programme.. everybody is eagerly waiting to hear your 2005 picks
Ramesh Damani : What's great about Jan 1 for new ideas. Any day you get a new idea is a good time to invest. These top 5 are best left to TV companies.

KATAKIA : godfrey phillips, though not having strong brands like ITC, still commands a respectable mkt share in the tobacco industry. with its mkt cap at a huge discount to ITC is it not a crying buy at current levels? your comments please
Ramesh Damani : It is and with Press Note 18 restructuing that is bound to happen.

Madhu : Sir,there are too many stocks are listed in BSE/NSE, I guess you track some hundreds/thousands of stocks.I am surprised, how do track so many stocks?
Ramesh Damani : No I have a circle of competency like tech, ITES, PSU. The rest is a one of thing.

ruthwick : Too much talk is going on Internatioally about BRCIs ( India being I). Time for market tops.... or still lot of steam of left....Your guess please.....
Ramesh Damani : Market is closing at lifetime highs. Let us not prejudge the markets.

sanujkadevil : sirabsolutely right. no difference between dec31 and jan1 . thing is if you recommand any stocks it will hit upper circuit.
Ramesh Damani : As long term investors you need to get away fromt that kind of thinking. Good ideas work, bad ideas will eventually fail. It doesn't matter who recommends it.

chetan : FCI OEN - but most companies are having a good year (no offense to what you say). anything special (growth triggers) you see in this stock?
Ramesh Damani : Stock is cheap in PE terms and market cap terms. OEN is transferring work to India

ak : Sir, agreed, nothing great about Jan 1 for a new idea. However, for everyone's benefit, would you summarize 2004's buy ideas that are STILL STANDING?
Ramesh Damani : I am holding the portfolio I recommended in Jan 1. Pretty intact.

dhr : sir hindujatmt holds about 5 per cent in hutch what will be the value of it roughly
Ramesh Damani : It's actually about 1.8 % in the merged entity. It could be worth quite a bit.

kalyan : Please for new comers like me let me what is your portfolio. Damaniji, do not deny our last wish of the year
Ramesh Damani : Check the transcripts for stocks that I have invested in.

sunil : SIR TINPLATE COMPANY OF INDIA HAD GOOD RESULTS BUT DID OT PARTICIPATE IN THE BULL RUN..... SIR YOUR VIEWS IF ANY
Ramesh Damani : I have a small investment in it. It is a turnaround story.

rohit : Rameshji,any take on Abhishek Industries.. specially after lotus global investments (fii's) buying small stake..
Ramesh Damani : No idea on it.

mansri : Sir, NELCO- there is a market rumor that it will be merged with TATA POWER – no synergies at valuation of Rs. 75/-. Is it correct? What are the prospects of this stock going forward? Pl advise
Ramesh Damani : I have not heard that. However it could happen.

malik : In last chat show you said that Gas Sector Is looking Good .Do u cansider these comapnies in Gas Sector.1.IGL, BOC, National Oxygen
Ramesh Damani : Yes, I am still studying it.

BrijNiralay : New trading idea: reverse scle trading: Buy a fixed amount of shares. reinvest the same amount on every 5 % increase in value of the stock. When the stock again declines by 5 %... sell the stock - Your ideas - Your Value fan
Ramesh Damani : What about convction and vision? This system makes your broker rich.

sudhir : sir do u take it as a compliment about rj praising in bs as an admirable investor
Ramesh Damani : He is the Great Helmsan and his humility shows. It was probably a misquote.

WalterSchloss : At FY05 PE of 13, Market isn't as overvalued, is it?
Ramesh Damani : PE for a time is decided by the marekt.

baracuda : titan should have a good december qrt,consumer shopping has been really great this holiday season,tanishq jewellery is also very attractive both in design and price,has a market cap of700crs and should have a sales of1200crs,it still has to catch up with its peers
Ramesh Damani : They are having a good year and the retail story could become big.

Star : Sir, Is there a dirct relationship between p/e and ROCE? Can we say that p/e less than ROCE means undervalue? Please Answer.....
Ramesh Damani : This is for chat not financial details.

ak : Sir, Can you confirm these investment calls made in 2004, and that they are still valid - Nucleus Software, Arvind Products, VST, Balmer Lawrie, UB Holdings, Swaraj Engines?
Ramesh Damani : Yup.

sush : hello sir , one last tip from u at the end of the year
Ramesh Damani : For a trading call I bought Surya Roshni (37). I buy and sell it.

praveens : Sir, you said earlier that tata tele is a risky stock.what is the risk. it has moved very sharply
Ramesh Damani : Lack of earnings still.

BrijNiralay : Damaniji: New book: Bulls eye investing: Targetting real returns in a smoke and mirrors market -John Mauldin - Just so that it helps
Ramesh Damani : I have heard good things about it.

bc : TVS electronics - had a poor Q3. Is the outsourcing story still on?
Ramesh Damani : I think so. they have tied up with Huwaeii.

sudhir : sir great persons are generally humble and god does bless them in the long run . i think you too would be blessed as you have done a lot for us the common people
Ramesh Damani : My privelege and pleasure.

DamanisFAn : surya roshni will hit upper crkt tomorrow.All his fan will buy this
Ramesh Damani : It is a trading bet, so please don't go crazy. It looks good on the charts.

Manish : Sir, I have started looking stock market seriously and have been reading your tips regularly. Just wanted to know the approach which I should follow to generate a return of 25-30 % on stock investment to save my retirement life after 30 years. I don't believe in speculations and want to be a long term investor while rotating portfolio in every 1-2 years. I have observed that sensex sees a bull (5800+) as well as bear market (below 5000) every year. Do you see bear mkt next year. Sorry!!! for long question.
Ramesh Damani : It is difficult to predict that. Look at stocks rather than the market.

nanpal : Sir, Can we invest for long term in this kind of Bull Market, where the sensex is at all time high? Is it safe looking at 2 - 3 years perspective
Ramesh Damani : Market is never guaranteed. But investing over the next few years will be good for investors. It is my hope. Thanks all and have a great new year. See you in 2005. Bye.