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Rupee rise may extract due of Rs 1 lakh cr
Asit Ranjan Misra in New Delhi
 
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July 26, 2007 06:24 IST
Massive retrenchment and a potential financial loss of nearly Rs 1,00,000 crore due to a loss in value and competitiveness are the key findings of a three-month field survey on the impact of the rising rupee on Indian exports conducted by the commerce ministry between March and June.

The sample survey, the first of its kind, covered eight export-driven sectors in which import intensity is low and export dependence high. Its overall findings suggest massive lay-offs as units close following order cancellations, reduced profit margins and a loss of competitiveness.

The rupee has appreciated from a low of Rs 46.83 since July 2006 to around Rs 40.50 at present.

Worst hit among the sectors is leather, which saw profitability drop 75 per cent and 1,900 workers lose their jobs in the six units surveyed.

The processed agricultural products sector saw loss of export orders to the extent of 25 per cent and lay-offs between 35 and 40 per cent. The handicraft sector fears business losses of around $5 million, which will impact 20,000 families of weavers directly or indirectly.

The report, prepared by a committee of officials led by additional secretary, the commerce department, R Gopalan, states that the textiles and garments industry alone cut around 11,000 jobs between March and June in the 45 units surveyed.

"It is on the verge of reducing the workforce by 200,000 workers. In Tirupur (Tamil Nadu) alone, the job losses are expected to be around 80,000," the report says.

Overall, the report said the loss in terms of export growth would be more severe than predicted by the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, which revised the methodology for estimating provisional figures for the current financial year.

The report says the unadjusted provisional figures for export growth would have been 13 per cent in dollar terms and merely 2 per cent in rupee terms in May 2007 against 18 and 6 per cent, respectively, under the revised formula.

The survey was conducted by Directorate General of Foreign Trade officials and submitted to Commerce Minister Kamal Nath on July 12, the day the government announced a relief package for exporters.

The report adds that exporters are constrained by the fact that about 70 per cent of India's exports are still invoiced in dollars, despite the currency's falling value. The valuation loss due to such rupee appreciation is around Rs 53,000 crore at an average annual exchange rate of Rs 40.5 per dollar.

Since Indian exporters sell in a buyers' market and the Indian rupee is not fully convertible, exporters have not been able to change the invoicing pattern to rupees, which would have been in their favour.

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