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Good monsoon may help ease inflation
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July 02, 2007 18:12 IST

There is good news for the Central government, which is struggling to rein in inflation. Monsoon rains were more than normal in June and the government can hope for a better kharif crop, which in turn may help reduce inflation.

Moreover, the kharif sowing operations have picked up momentum following increased rainfall in the month.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country as a whole has received an area-weighted rainfall of 148.7 millimetres (mm) during June 1-29, which is 7.4 per cent more than the normal (long period average) of 138.5 mm for this period. The rains have been good in most parts, especially the South and North-West regions and also Maharashtra (barring Vidarbha), Chhattisgarh, Orissa and West Bengal.
It is only Central India (Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, mainland Gujarat and eastern Rajasthan), Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh that has witnessed a bit weak precipitation. But even that could change with the IMD predicting enhanced rainfall activity in Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh over the next week.

The Agriculture Ministry's Crop Weather Watch report shows that the area planted under rice and coarse cereals so far this year is lagging behind last year, but is higher in the case of cotton and pulses. The cumulative acreage has been lower for rice (31.64 lakh hectares against 34.33 lh), maize (8.76 lh versus 12.55 lh), bajra (6.47 lh versus 6.89 lh) and jowar (2.86 lh versus 4.62 lh).

The total area under pulses, at 11.35 lh, is way above last year's 7.45 lh, led by moong (5.04 lh versus 2.93 lh), arhar (2.70 lh versus 2.13 lh) and urad (2.04 lh versus 1.11 lh). It seems high price realisation has encouraged farmers to plant more area this time under pulses. Same is the case with for cotton, with the area sown so far, at 15.29 lh, being more than the 14.71 lh of last year. Significantly, out of the 15.29 lh, as much as 8.68 lh has come under Bt Cotton. Cotton acreage has particularly gone up in Punjab and Rajasthan.

As far as oilseeds are concerned, total area till now, at 13.04 lh, has been lower than the corresponding 16.65 lh of last year, though higher than the 8.12 lh for 2005. There has been a fall in groundnut area (5.95 lh versus 8.18 lh), soyabean (2.91 lh versus 3.40 lh), sunflower (2.04 lh versus 2.85 lh) and sesamum (1.49 lh versus 1.83 lh).




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