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Rising Re & job losses: What's the solution December 17, 2007 Articles and editorials in media have also commented on the issue. I have consistently argued against an overvalued exchange rate, in the interest of investment, growth and employment creation which, to my mind, need to remain the primary objectives of macro-economic policies. Many people in authority are advising exporters to adjust to the strong rupee: exporters are, of course, doing so and this has been reflected in the layoffs referred to by the commerce minister. Several myths are being propagated on the subject, that: Exports are not important to growth. The truth is that in 2006-07, export growth accounted for more than 40 per cent of the GDP growth. Our growth is domestic demand-led and, therefore, the exchange rate is not a very important macro-variable. The truth is that, with an uncompetitive exchange rate, domestic demand will fuel imports, rather than growth in domestic output. Car manufacturers, for example, are switching from domestic suppliers of components to imports. Import-intensive exports benefit from a stronger rupee. In recent weeks one has seen CRISIL economists and other academics (ET, Dec 10) making the point. The reality is that any business is established to add value, for which it incurs costs like wages, power, and so on. SMEs should index (ET, Nov 23) part of the wage costs to the exchange rate. This seems to be utterly unrealistic. As for intervening in the exchange market, some argue that "intervention is not only unnecessary; it is ineffective" (Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg, ET, Nov 17), given the market size. This argument does not seem very convincing: central banks become effective more through changing expectations than as a direct impact of interventions either in the money or exchange markets. To my mind, no amount of "sops" will work. The continuation of the existing policy will damage more and more the economy's capacity to create jobs and we should not fool ourselves otherwise. Powered by More Guest Columns | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||