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Sensex may touch 7200 in a year

SI Team in Mumbai | December 13, 2004

Uncharted territory. With the markets at all-time high levels, technical analysts are gazing at the unknown. While there is no way to know what tomorrow might bring forth, there seems to be a clear consensus on the big question -- where are the markets headed?

Check out what the experts say

If you take the benchmark Sensex outlook as an indicator, there is only one thing that is clear -- the outlook is bullish. The levels at which the chartists are pegging the index at various future points vary.

For instance, the one-year outlook given by various analysts moves in a broad range, from 7,200 to 8,000. Which means even if they get it right on the lower end, the markets are in for a jolly good ride.

To find out the prospects of the markets, The Smart Investor spoke to several technical analysts. Some where extremely bullish on the long-term outlook.

Milind Karandikar, a Mumbai-based Neowave analyst, who predicted the end of the last bull-run (pre-Black Monday), expects a short-term correction followed by a period of consolidation.

He pegs the Sensex to test 8,000 levels by the end of 2005 -- a near 30 per cent appreciation from current levels in a year's time. Hemen Kapadia, partner at investment advisory firm Morpheus Inc, is also among those who bet on the good times to continue.

"Currently we are in the midst of what is turning out to be the greatest bull market in Indian history and it doesn't seem to be in a mood to stop in a hurry," says Kapadia.

His technical target? "6800-7200 in the next three quarters." Salim Dawoodani, who in October 2003 had predicted the Sensex to "re-test" 6150 levels in a year's time, now sets his sights even higher at 7200 (one-year target).

But there are others like Deepak Mohoni, managing director of www.trendwatchindia.com, who are cautious about the future.

"Recent bull markets have rarely lasted over a year. So unless this is a very extraordinary phase we can expect a bear market correction to start sometime in the next few months," reasons Mohoni.

"A one-year timeframe is too unpredictable as there will be many unpredictable fundamental and economic factors which will change trends," he adds, while not entirely ruling out "a very strong bull run."

Of course, in all these cases, analysts have put in caveats, which are about the index surviving short-term pressures. In other words, the growth will come, but be prepared for a few bumps along the way. Mohoni puts it thus.

"Though such uptrends have sometimes even lasted three months during strong bull markets, the odds are weighted in favour of a correction some time soon."

Vijay Bhambwani, CEO of BSPLIndia.com is of the opinion that future upsides will depend on higher volumes. "The indices are near their all time highs and need to surge higher with very high volumes to be able to sustain the upward momentum," he says.

According to Kapadia, the Sensex needs to remain above the 6230, 6151 and 6084 levels in the short-term (one month) for the positive trends to continue.

In short, if the index does somehow manage to close below these levels on the charts, there may be trouble ahead. But even if things turn gloomy, stay assured that there is support at hand. "On the downside, 5565 is a critical support level," notes Dawoodani.

Will the markets toe the line and chart a new course? Only time will tell.


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