Capital expenditure by Indian companies is likely to see an uptick in the upcoming quarters as capacity utilisation has surpassed the critical threshold of 75 per cent, and numerous companies have deleveraged their balance sheets, according to analysts. The first quarter of the current financial year has shown improved profitability, driven by a decrease in input prices. This, according to analysts at Care Ratings, should stimulate a revival in the private capex cycle.
Wealthy Indians are adding new residential addresses to their assets, many of them in Dubai. The quality of life in the desert city is comparable to any coveted city in the world. Its property market is regulated to protect investors' interests.
'What will matter in 2024 from the market standpoint is the direction of interest rates globally, as well as in India.' 'The results of the general elections will also be keenly watched.'
The income tax department has notified rules for valuation of equity and compulsorily convertible preferable shares issued by startups to resident and non-resident investors. As per the changes in Rule 11UA of I-T rules, which comes into effect from September 25, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) provides that the valuation of compulsorily convertible preference shares (CCPS) can also be based on the fair market value of unquoted equity shares. The amended rules also retain the five new valuation methods proposed in the draft rules for consideration received from the non-residents viz., (i) Comparable Company Multiple Method, (ii) Probability Weighted Expected Return Method, (iii) Option Pricing Method, (iv) Milestone Analysis Method, and (v) Replacement Cost Method.
Floating-rate mutual funds are back in demand after a year-long period of consistent outflows. In the past three months, investors have poured over Rs 6,100 crore into these debt schemes, indicating a reversal in fortunes for the category that recorded outflows for 11 consecutive months (May 2022 to March 2023), totalling Rs 32,250 crore. Floating-rate funds invest at least 65 per cent in floating-rate instruments, which have their interest rates linked to the Reserve Bank of India repo rate.
After Bandhan MF's US Treasury Bond 0-1 year Fund of Fund (FoF), Aditya Birla Sun Life (ABSL) MF has come out with US Treasury 1-3 Year Bond ETFs FoF and 3-10 Year Bond ETFs FoF. US bonds, which generally offer low yields, have turned attractive post the 525-basis point hike in US interest rates. According to Bloomberg data, the 1-year and 2-year US treasury yields now stand at 5.4 per cent and 5.1 per cent, respectively. Although the yields remain lower than what Indian government bonds offer, the differential has come down steeply.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pulled out over Rs 10,000 crore from Indian equities in the first three weeks of September, primarily due to rising US interest rates, recessionary fears, and overvalued domestic stocks. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period. Mayank Mehra, smallcase, manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha,believes that strong economic growth prospects, attractive valuations, and government reforms could support foreign investment flows in the next month.
The contribution from asset management companies (AMCs) has surpassed the Rs 3,000 crore target for the creation of a Rs 33,000 crore backstop facility for debt mutual funds (MFs). The initial corpus for the Corporate Debt Market Development Fund (CDMDF) is nearly Rs 3,100 crore, according to multiple government officials and AMC executives. "The fund is operational now. "The required corpus has been raised by AMCs and the remaining part (Rs 30,000 crore) is in the form of a guarantee from the government which will be activated only in case of a credit event," explained D P Singh, joint CEO and deputy MD, SBI MF.
India's outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) nosedived to $11.12 billion in January-June (H1 2023) from $23.57 billion in the same period last year, indicative of the slowdown in the global economy, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data. The outward FDI expressed as the total financial commitment, has three components, namely equity, loan and guarantees. The sharp contraction in the commitments (outward FDI) was prominent in the April-June 2023 period.
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
To check digital frauds, the government has disconnected 70 lakh mobile numbers so far involved in cybercrime or financial frauds, Financial Services Secretary Vivek Joshi said on Tuesday. Emerging from a meeting to discuss issues related to financial cyber security and increasing digital payment fraud, Joshi, who chaired the meeting, said banks have been asked to strengthen the system and processes in this regard. More such meetings would take place, he said, adding the next meeting is scheduled in January.
The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield. While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent. Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.
It is a good option for parents of girl children who want a debt product and do not mind its low liquidity.
The accused has been apprehended, a senior police officer said.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) decision to withdraw the incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) is expected to benefit banks during the festival season. They are likely to increase deposit rates by up to 25 basis points (bps) in select maturity buckets. The rise in demand for funds to cover tax payments and meet quarter-end business targets could influence rate decisions by banks, according to bankers and money market executives.
The pharmaceuticals sector is expected to post a revenue growth of around 13.5 per cent and a net profit growth of 30.3 per cent for the third quarter of 2023-24 (FY24), riding on the approval for niche drugs in the US market, fall in raw material prices and correction in shipping rates. In the healthcare segment, hospitals are expected to post revenue growth of 13 per cent during the coverage, while net profit growth would be around 37 per cent, ICICI Securities said in a note. However, the performance may not be comparable on a sequential basis due to the offset of the festive season in Q3FY24, the analysts noted.
India's pharmaceutical exports to Iran have been hit owing to depleting rupee reserves in the West Asian country because of India stopping the import of crude oil from it in 2019 following US sanctions. Pharmaceutical exports dropped 71.25 per cent in April-August this year over the same period last year. The data from the Pharmaceutical Exports Promotion Council (Pharmexcil) showed exports to Iran had declined 31.29 per cent in 2022-23 as against the previous financial year.
'From a risk-return perspective, large-cap funds may generate lower-than-historical average returns in 2024, whereas mid-, and small-cap funds hardly have any upside left.'
Debt fund managers are reassessing their strategies after the setback delivered by the Reserve Bank of India recently. While most are refraining from any knee-jerk reaction to the central bank's surprise open market operation (OMO) announcements, they are taking a re-look at the duration of their schemes. Sandeep Yadav, head of fixed income at DSP Mutual Fund, said it has trimmed the duration of some schemes, considering the hawkish stance by the RBI.
'You cannot have only one product or one market or one customer segment.'
From 'Hitler isn't dead' to 'My documents have been stolen by the same thief who has stolen the Rafale files' creative posters were galore at the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act protests in Mumbai on Thursday. Take a look.
Brokerages believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) stronger-than-expected showing in state elections reduces political risks for the domestic markets going into 2024. However, after the short-term excitement, the focus will soon shift to earnings, global liquidity conditions, and the interest rate trajectory. "BJP's win in the three state elections is much better than what exit polls suggested and reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win in the 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of 300+ seats for the BJP.
The number of fraud cases reported by private banks outnumbered those by public sector banks for the second consecutive year.
The RBI interest rate decision, industrial production data for June and the ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the stock markets this week, analysts said. Other major factors such as global market trends, the movement of oil prices and the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence trading, they added. "The market will have an eye on the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which will be announced on August 10, 2023. We are heading towards the last batch of Q2 earnings of key companies such as Adani Ports, Coal India, Hero MotoCorp, Hindalco and ONGC, among others, which will lead to stock-specific movement," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Uttam Ghosh offers his take on the brouhaha after the prime minister could not attend what critics describe as a sparsely attended BJP rally in Ferozepur, Punjab, because protesters blocked part of the route.
Uttam Ghosh asks if Mamata Banerjee plans to make the Congress redundant in the run-up to the 2024 elections.
The total number of unique investors directly investing in the stock market has surged to 80 million for the first time, with the latest 10 million additions taking place in just eight months, according to data shared by the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the country's largest bourse. "The 80 million unique PAN (permanent account number) investors correspond approximately to around 50 million unique households in India amounting to around 17 per cent households directly investing in the Indian stock market via NSE's extensive nationwide network of trading members," said the exchange. In 2021, the number of domestic households were pegged at 300 million.
Benchmark indices ended lower on Wednesday, halting their eight days of rally, ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and mixed global market trends. Also, fall in index majors Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and Larsen & Toubro added to the weak trend in equities. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 161.41 points or 0.26 per cent to settle at 61,193.30.
Even as banks and finance companies are reporting record-high earnings, their weighting in the benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index has seen a downward trajectory. Investors expect a stronger performance from other sectors in the new year. Currently, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies collectively hold a weighting of 34.5 per cent, down from 36.7 per cent at the end of December 2022 and a record high of 40.6 per cent at the end of December 2019. This represents the sector's lowest weighting in the index since December 2021 when it stood at 33.7 per cent.
Uttam Ghosh offers his take on the Lakhimpur Kheri tragedy.
Several opposition ruled states expressed concern over Centre's decision to allow enforcement directorate (ED) to share information with GST Network, with finance minister of AAP-ruled Punjab Harpal Singh Cheema on Tuesday saying it amounts to 'tax terrorism' and scaring small business. The finance ministry, through a notification, brought in an amendment to the provisions of Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002, as per which GSTN, which handles the technology backbone of Goods and Services Tax, has been included in the list of entities with which ED will share information. At the 50th GST Council meeting on Tuesday, Aam-Aadmi Party ruled Delhi and Punjab voiced concerns over the notification and demanded a discussion.
The life insurance industry reported a 25.28 per cent decline in new business premium income in November 2023 to Rs 26,494.83 crore from Rs 34,588.8 crore recorded a year ago. The fall in group premium and change in taxation norms for policies with a higher ticket size dragged the premiums of the state-run Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and private insurers, respectively. According to the data released by the Life Insurance Council, the premium of private insurers slipped 9.33 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 10,360.29 crore from Rs 11,426.73 crore as a result of a change in product mix due to the measures taken to counter the impact of tax imposed on the premiums of Rs 5 lakh.
From the Sensex pack, Reliance Industries jumped the most by 3.78 per cent. Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, ICICI Bank and Tata Motors were the other biggest gainers. Titan, HCL Technologies, Power Grid, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank and Nestle were among the major laggards.
The number of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in August that involved private equity (PE) funds was the lowest in nearly three years. There were 26 such deals last month, according to data from tracker Refinitiv (part of London Stock Exchange Group). The last time monthly deal numbers were so low in recent times was January 2021 when Covid cases were picking up during the second wave of the pandemic.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over Rs 12,000 crore from Indian equities this month so far, mainly due to a sustained rise in US bond yields and the uncertain environment resulting from the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, the story takes an intriguing turn on observing FPI activity in Indian debt as they have infused over Rs 5,700 crore into the debt market during the period under review, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, the trajectory of FPIs' investments in India will be influenced not only by global inflation and interest rate dynamics but also by the developments and intensity of the Israel-Hamas conflict, Himanshu Srivastava, associate director - manager research, Morningstar Investment Adviser India, said.
'Unless the government comes up with the rulebook, the technical requirements will not be clear to us.' 'Going by the Act, non-technical provisions can be complied with within six months.' 'But we need up to 24 months for provisions like parental consent.'
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday marginally lowered its inflation projection for the current financial year to 5.1 per cent, as Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank's monetary policy actions are yielding the desired results. In April, the Reserve Bank had estimated the consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation at 5.2 per cent during the fiscal 2023-24. CPI inflation fell sharply to 4.7 per cent in April 2023, from 6.4 per cent in February, on the back of favourable base effects, with softening observed across all the three major groups.
Retirement fund body EPFO has recorded the highest net member addition of 18.75 lakh in July 2023, according to the payroll data released on Wednesday. The labour ministry in a statement said that the addition of 18.75 lakh during the month is the highest since the first publishing of EPFO payroll data from April 2018 covering the period of September 2017 onwards. A growing trend has continued for the last three months with an increase of around 85,932 net members over the previous month of June 2023.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, NTPC, Power Grid, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and UltraTech Cement were the major laggards. IndusInd Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, HCL Technologies, Asian Paints, Wipro, HDFC and Maruti were among the major gainers.
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