Showing the effect of the slowdown in global economic activity, the equity foreign direct investment (FDI) into India declined sharply to $13.9 billion in April-July 2023 from $22.04 billion a year ago. The net FDI, inflows minus outflows, declined from $17.28 billion in April-July 2022 to $5.70 billion in April-July 2023 on account of moderating gross FDI and a rise in repatriation. Gross FDI into India moderated to $22.0 billion during April-July 2023 from $29.6 billion a year ago, according to Reserve Bank of India data.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global cues, macroeconomic data announcements and the ongoing quarterly earnings are the major triggers that will dictate trends in stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked. "All eyes are on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for November 1, particularly due to the multi-year high levels of the US bond yields.
'More than investors, fund houses, and advisors have raised caution and limited flows on small-and mid-caps.'
The government has approved the 'Terms of Reference' for the 16 Finance Commission, which makes recommendations on sharing of tax revenues between the Centre and states. The recommendations would cover a five-year period commencing April 1, 2026, Information and Broadcasting Minister Anurag Thakur said on Wednesday, giving details about the decisions taken at the Cabinet meeting last evening. The commission would submit its report by October 31, 2025, Thakur said.
Quarterly earnings from IT majors Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide the movement in the equity market this week, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee will also influence trading in the markets. "All eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the second quarter of the current fiscal year. TCS is slated to unveil its Q2 results on October 11, with HCL Technologies and Infosys following suit on October 12.
Mumbai accounts for the largest share of electoral bonds sold since inception.
In numerous instances, family members are unaware of an insurance policy's existence, let alone its details.
The relatives have lodged a complaint with the police alleging that the instant loan app's depraved tactics to recover a loan borrowed by the family is likely to have led to them taking the extreme step.
'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
Closely watched by the world for any escalation, the Iran-Israel conflict is already showing early signs of stress for India Inc - longer deliveries, doubling freight rates, extended working capital cycles, and higher costs. For those yet to feel the heat, there is growing apprehension and nervousness over future developments, observed industry executives.
Domestic equity markets will be driven mainly by quarterly earnings, global trends, and the movement in crude oil prices in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Investors would also keep an eye on the Middle East amid the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict and the trading activity of foreign investors. Markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Dussehra.
Do not shop around for loans immediately after getting a secured credit card. Such loan enquiries can also pull down credit score, as they are treated as a sign of credit-hungry behaviour.
'Valuations of midcaps and smallcaps have reached very high levels, and hence to that extent leave little margin of safety.'
It has mostly been a one-way street for smallcap stocks that have taken it on their chin thus far in February. The Nifty Smallcap 250 index has shed 3.2 per cent in the current month as compared to the 1.8 per cent decline in the Nifty Midcap 100 and the 0.5 per cent drop in the Nifty 50 index, data showed. Technically, the index has slipped below its 20-day moving average (DMA) placed at 14,800 levels on Monday, and is currently testing the 50-DMA, and is placed at 14,278 levels.
Banks are likely to see their net interest margins (NIM) - broadly the difference between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits - shrink by another 30 basis points (bps) over the next few quarters. After hitting a peak of 3.3 per cent in the third quarter (Q3) of the financial year ended March 31, 2023 (FY23), NIMs have been on a downward trajectory, touching 3.13 per cent in Q2FY24 on higher cost of funds, according to capital markets firm CARE Ratings. Banks are still grappling with the Reserve Bank of India's policy rate increases - that have made deposits costlier as the interest payable to customers has increased - and the regulatory actions on unsecured lending.
Uttam Ghosh riffs on a quote from Rushdie's double Booker Prize-winning novel Midnight Children to remind us what Freedom of Expression should mean to every human being.
Uttam Ghosh offers his take on the Rajya Sabha firman.
The number of frauds in the banking sector during the first half of the current financial year has increased substantially to 14,483 cases, although the amount involved is only 14.9 per cent of the previous year's amount, according to a RBI report. The report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2022-23, underlined the need to protect the banking system and the payments system from the risks of fraud and data breaches emanating from cyber threats. As many as 14,483 frauds were reported involving an amount of Rs 2,642 crore in the first half of current financial year, as compared to 5,396 cases (Rs 17,685 crore) in the same period a year ago.
India may be 15th among the top 25 Artificial Intelligence nations, but it has the 'the greatest upward potential' according to research by Tufts University's business school, the Fletcher School. At the top is the US, followed by China, fighting for global leadership in AI followed by the UK, Japan, and Germany. In the 15th spot, India is ahead of Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia and Thailand.
Bankers said the outlook of M&As in India in 2024, especially in the second half after the Lok Sabha election, seems relatively better.
The ongoing second quarter earnings, movement of oil benchmark Brent crude and the uncertainty in the Middle East would dictate terms in the domestic markets this week, analysts said. Furthermore, the activities of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will also influence trading in the markets. "A slew of earnings reports from heavyweights expected this week will significantly impact market direction.
Wilful defaulters owe SBI Rs 80,000 crore. 10 nationalised banks are owed another Rs 1.5 trillion.
Foreign banks and private credit funds are queuing up to fund acquisitions by Indian companies who are buying out their local rivals. The Adani Group, Torrent Group, and the Hindujas have approached several foreign banks and private equity (PE) firms to fund their acquisitions. Global investors have about $2 trillion of funds to invest, and about $100 to $150 billion is set aside for India, according to an estimate by JP Morgan.
Funds raised by India Inc. through offshore loan syndication hit a 15-year high in 2023 with companies and banks raising $21.4 billion, the highest since 2007. The momentum is expected to continue in 2024 as well with over $4 billion fund raising expected in the first three months of this year. Companies raise funds, both onshore and offshore, depending on interest rates and activities. Funds raised offshore can be deployed in overseas activities.
A buoyant equity market, coupled with an improved performance of mutual funds (MFs) on the returns chart, has heightened retail investors' appetite for equities. In the past few months, equity MF schemes have seen a surge in fresh investments through both lump sum (one-time investments) and systematic investment plan (SIP) routes. During the August-September 2023 period, equity MF schemes recorded net lump sum investments of Rs 35,270 crore, compared to just Rs 5,550 crore in the previous three months, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
Uttam Ghosh offers his take on Kapil Sibal's revelation that he quit the Congress, a party of which has been a member of for 30 years, last week.
Uttam Ghosh offers his take on the upheavals in the sub-continent this past week.
Global financial firm J P Morgan has said that it plans to include Indian government bonds (IGBs) or government securities (G-Secs) into its benchmark Emerging Market index from next year, a move that will bring down borrowing cost for the government. The inclusion of the IGBs will be staggered over a 10-month period from June 28, 2024 to March 31, 2025, indicating one per cent increment on its index weight. "India's weight is expected to reach the maximum weight threshold of 10 per cent in the GBI-EM Global Diversified, and approximately 8.7 per cent in the GBI-EM Global index," J P Morgan said in a statement on Friday.
As the policy rate has seen a steady increase since May 2022, the percentage of loans offered at interest rates below 8 per cent have declined sharply, dropping from 53 per cent in March 2022 to 18 per cent by June 2023, according to a report by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The share of bank loans with interest rates of 10 per cent or higher rose from 22 per cent to 34 per cent during this period, reflecting the impact of a 250 basis point (bps) hike in the policy repo rate by the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee. In response to the rise in repo rate, 32 domestic banks have made corresponding upward revisions to their repo-linked external benchmark-based lending rates (EBLRs), aligning them with the magnitude of the rate hike.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) selling spree continued as they dumped Indian equity worth over Rs 5,800 crore this month so far on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
Uttam Ghosh offers his take on the brutal political violence in Mamata Banerjee's Bengal.
As Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra travels across Maharashtra, Uttam Ghosh/Rediff.com captures scenes from the walkathon to spread kindness and harmony from Nanded.
Uttam Ghosh offers his take on the daily increase in the prices of petrol and diesel.
Uttam Ghosh offers his take on Russia's terrifying nuclear threats.
Retail investors now own a bigger slice of smallcap companies than at the start of 2023-24 (FY24), underscoring their growing conviction about investing in this red-hot space. Data from Capitaline shows mutual funds' (MFs') average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 rising to 9.26 per cent from 8.67 per cent during the first six months of FY24, with the number of companies with over 20 per cent MF holdings increasing from 24 to 28. In comparison, MF holdings in Nifty50 companies have gone up only marginally, from 9.67 per cent to 9.75 per cent.
Average housing prices have increased in the range of 13-33 per cent in the last three years across seven major cities on high demand, according to real estate consultant Anarock. Hyderabad's Gachibowli recorded the highest 33 per cent increase in average residential prices in the past three years. In Gachibowli, the average residential prices as of October 2023-end stood at Rs 6,355 per square feet as against Rs 4,790 per square feet in October 2020.
Which entrepreneur would willingly part with her or his hard-earned money for grasping, self-serving politicians? asks Debashis Basu.
Uttam Ghosh offers his take on Russia's Invasion of Ukraine.
To offer additional support at the low end of the income ranges, the Centre will consider a large-scale jump in exemption rates under the old income-tax regime in the vote on account, or interim Budget, according to a senior official in the know. Those will include an extension of the income tax exemption rates close to Rs 7 lakh and additional measures for women farmers.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
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