There are overvaluation and excesses in many pockets of the market. This is most obvious in the IPO market, where loss-making companies have inflicted large losses on investors, observes Debashis Basu.
P-notes are issued by registered Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) to overseas investors who wish to be a part of the Indian stock market without registering themselves directly. They, however, need to go through a due diligence process. According to Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data, the value of P-note investments in Indian markets -- equity, debt, and hybrid securities -- stood at Rs 90,580 crore at April-end, compared to Rs 87,979 crore in March.
After three consecutive years of infusing huge funds, foreign portfolio investors retreated from the Indian equity markets in a big way in 2022 with the highest-ever yearly net outflow of nearly Rs 1.21 lakh crore. The huge outflow, which surpasses by a big margin the previous record of Rs 53,000 crore net withdrawal in 2008, came amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally but 2023 is expected to be better on positivity about overall macroeconomic trends in India, experts said. Apart from global monetary tightening, volatile crude, rising commodity prices along with Russia and Ukraine conflict led to an exodus of foreign money in 2022.
Gold prices have surged nearly 18 per cent, so far, in the calendar year 2022 (CY22) to around $2,050 per ounce against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and there is more headroom over the next few months, believe analysts at Goldman Sachs who expect the yellow metal to become costlier by another 25 per cent to $2,500 an ounce by the year-end. Goldman Sachs, earlier, had raised its 12-month gold price forecast to $2,150 per ounce considering that an impending US growth slowdown would lead to increased concerns of a US recession and incentivise 300 tonnes of inflows into gold ETFs. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine tensions, Goldman Sachs had suggested the resultant rally in commodities could deteriorate the developed market (DM) growth-inflation mix, increase concerns of a American recession, and push gold ETF inflows to 600 tonnes and, in turn, lift gold prices to $2,350 an ounce in 12 months.
'If the third wave of Covid infections is as bad as the second one, the market may get very polarised with a preference for blue-chips with low volatility.'
In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. Inflation has been above the targeted zone for the ninth month in a row and as per statute, the RBI will now have to explain to the government in writing why it failed to keep prices below 6 per cent.
Global markets trends, inflation, release of industrial output data and quarterly earnings will dictate movement of the equity benchmarks this week, analysts said, adding that volatility might continue amid slew of announcements of macroeconomic data at the global level too. Moreover, foreign fund movement, crude oil prices and trend in rupee would also act as major drivers for the equity market, they added. "The direction of global equity markets along with movement in dollar index and crude oil prices will continue to dominate while inflation numbers of the USA on May 11 and inflation and IIP numbers of India on May 12 will also cause volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Continuing their massive selling spree for the ninth consecutive month, foreign investors dumped Indian shares worth Rs 50,203 crore in June -- the highest net outflow in over two years -- amid aggressive rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, elevated inflation and relatively higher valuation of domestic equities. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have now pulled out around Rs 2.2 lakh crore from domestic equities in the first six months of 2022 -- the highest-ever net withdrawal by them. Before that, FPIs withdrew Rs 52,987 crore in the entire 2008, data with depositories showed.
The Fed's decision on tapering its monthly $85 billion bond-buying programme is expected later on Wednesday.
HDFC was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 1 per cent, followed by Nestle India, ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank and HDFC Bank. The NSE Nifty declined 15.35 points to 17,546.65.
BofA Securities has revised its year-end Nifty target from its earlier projection of 16,000 to 14,500 now - down over 6 per cent from the current levels. Fast tightening monetary conditions, slowing growth/fears of US recession and the likely Nifty EPS (earnings per share) cuts, BofA Securities said, are the key headwinds for the markets in the near-term. However, clarity on macro and monetary policy outlook in the US/India, it said, is the silver lining that could see markets bottom out by August/September 2022.
The sharp correction in equity markets has taken a toll on mid-and-small cap stocks that have underperformed their large-cap peers. Thus far in calendar year 2022 (CY22), the mid-and-small cap indexes on the BSE have slipped over 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, as compared to a fall of around 6 per cent in the S&P BSE Sensex. While investors dumped mid-and small-cap stocks as the markets remained choppy over the past few weeks, analysts still expect these two segments to see good investor interest from a medium-to-long term perspective.
'If you are invested in mid-cap and small-cap stocks, even if you are making losses right now, it is better to sell them now and sit on cash.'
The winter session of Parliament will commence on November 26.
Market benchmarks gave up intra-day gains to close in the red for the sixth session on the trot on Friday, capping a bruising week which saw a massive dash for safety amid rate hikes by global central banks and fears of slowing growth.
A weak dollar overseas also aided the rupee rise while fresh sell-off by foreign funds in domestic stocks capped the currency's gains, forex dealers said.
The outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and unprecedented lockdowns in China have roiled its equity market and also that of Hong Kong. After the crisis-hit Sri Lanka, China and Hong Kong are the worst-performing stock markets in Asia on a year-to-date basis.
Equity benchmarks continued their winning momentum for the third day on Thursday and jumped over 1.50 per cent, tracking an overall bullish trend in Asian equities. On the political front, the BJP headed for a second straight win in politically crucial Uttar Pradesh and dominated the trends chart in three other states. The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex opened in the green and further zoomed 1,595.14 points or 2.91 per cent to 56,242.47 during early trade.
The markets have been unable to sustain at higher levels as a rise in bond yields globally, especially in the US have dented sentiment. Surging commodity prices, especially crude oil that have now hit $70 a barrel (Brent) coupled with inflation woes and fear of sporadic lockdown across major economic hubs back home as Covid cases rise have chased the bulls away. In the short-term, analysts expect the markets to remain volatile as they react to news flow - both from overseas and developments back home. Investors, they say, need to keep a tab on how the US treasury yields move, which in turn will have a ripple effect on how big money moves across developed (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs), including India.
Gold prices may trade higher in the coming days because of weaker dollar and speculations of US Fed rate cut.
'There will be a series of rate hikes, but the pace and quantum will depend on how the economy in the US and the rest of the world behave.'
India's largest cement firm, Ultratech Cement, has joined the race to acquire the Holcim stake in Ambuja Cements and its subsidiary, ACC. UltraTech - part of the Aditya Birla Group - submitted a non-binding bid on Wednesday. Swiss multinational Holcim, which manufactures building material, is exiting India by selling its 63.19% stake in Ambuja Cements. According to banking sources, UltraTech has submitted a plan to Holcim, outlining divestiture details that would meet the norms set by anti-trust body Competition Commission of India.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said the recent interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank was not surprising for her but the timing was, asserting that the rising cost of funds will not impact the government's planned infrastructure investments. For the first time since August 2018, RBI had on May 4 delivered a blunt 40 basis points increase in key repo rate to 4.40 per cent, and also hiked the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent after an unscheduled meeting of the rate setting panel, citing increased inflation pressures following the Ukraine war and the resultant spike in crude oil prices. Retail inflation printed at 6.9 per cent in March and the April reading is forecast to top 7.7 per cent.
'There is a lot of interest from potential clients who have remained away from the markets in past years.' 'They are evaluating whether this is a good time to enter, especially since there are very few alternatives to earn meaningful returns.'
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies reached an all-time high of Rs 261.73 lakh crore on Thursday, helped by a massive rally in the equities where the benchmark Sensex zoomed 958 points to end at a fresh lifetime peak. The 30-share BSE benchmark jumped 958.03 points or 1.63 per cent to settle at its new closing peak of 59,885.36. During the day, it gained 1,029.92 points to touch an intra-day record high of 59,957.25.
On the Sensex chart, NTPC, SBI, UltraTech Cement, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv and Bjaja Finance were among the major laggards, shedding as much as 1.63 per cent.
'As we expect the economy to continue to grow above the trend line, we expect capex decisions to be taken next year when there is more certainty about the cost of funding and the economy.'
HCL Tech was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 2 per cent, followed by Infosys, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Auto and M&M. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Bank Bank, Power Grid, Sun Pharma and Asian Paints were among the laggards.
A lot of mid and small-caps are in the bubble zone and command high valuation and have corrected sharply.
HCL Tech was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying over 5 per cent, followed by L&T, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Bank, UltraTech Cement, ITC and Tata Steel. NSE Nifty rose 70.25 points to its all-time high of 15,924.20.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, 26 scrips closed with gains led by Tata Motors that zoomed 16.63 per cent after the company reported narrowing of losses in the September quarter.
Probably 35 bps. There could be even an encore in February 2023 to take the policy rate to 6.5% before the financial year ends, predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The faster-than-expected rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) shook global financial markets in early 2022. And now the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has lifted commodity prices, with Brent crude oil hitting a 14-year high of $139 a barrel in intraday trade. All these developments have sent the equity markets across the world into a tailspin.
'Rate cut should reiterate RBI's commitment in providing confidence to consumers and small business.'
The Fed interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data announcements and quarterly earnings will be the major sentiment drivers for the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Investors will also take cues from the monthly auto sales numbers to be announced on Monday. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Diwali Laxmi Pujan and on Friday for Diwali Balipratipada.
Thus far in FY21, BSE, NSE have rallied 70 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively.
HCL Tech was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding around 4 per cent, followed by Infosys, Dr Reddy's, TCS, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra and NTPC. NSE Nifty slumped 163.45 points to 14,557.85.
Investors have lost over Rs 5.55 lakh crore in four days of declines in the domestic equity markets. Rising domestic COVID-19 cases and selling in RIL and banking stocks dragged down the 30-share BSE Sensex by 562.34 points or 1.12 per cent to 49,801.62 on Wednesday. In four days, the benchamark has fallen by 1,477.89 points or 2.88 per cent. The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies has tanked by Rs 5,55,400.52 crore in four days to reach Rs 2,03,71,252.94 crore.
India will have to show more willingness to import, and since Biden will not encourage sale of oil and gas to bridge the gap, it means there has to be more meaningful duty reduction in other areas even if Delhi baulks at a Free Trade Agreement so soon after walking out of RCEP.
People may line up to see Rahul Gandhi, given he is currently, the only major politician speaking of inflation and unemployment in an India bombarded daily by Right-wing delusion. The challenge is how to transfer the goodwill into votes when the object of curiosity is surrounded by usual suspects and sycophants, observes Shyam Menon.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Investor Information - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances