A neutral monetary policy stance, heavy government borrowing, and issuers adjusting to a higher-for-longer yield environment have set the stage for a largely stable corporate bond market in 2026.
This Budget positions India's taxation ideology as not merely a revenue source but as a strategic catalyst for growth, inclusion and long-term confidence.
Uncertainties over the impact of the United States' (US') tariffs on India, along with the ongoing transmission of past rate cuts, prompted the members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain the status quo during the August meeting, the minutes showed. While some of the external members highlighted their concern over growth, the internal members cited the one-year headline inflation rate overshooting the 4 per cent target.
'We believe the truth is in the middle, and that India is at an important crossroads.'
The quarterly manufacturing index by the industry body Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (Ficci) rose to an all-time high in the third quarter of financial year 2025-26 (Q3FY26), with 91 per cent of respondents reporting either higher or same production levels, against 87 per cent in the previous quarter.
'India has the potential to grow at more than 7%, with the monetary policy providing a supportive hand.'
The transmission of the February and April rate cuts is now complete, validating the central bank's monetary stance and contributing to a revival in credit growth, said Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday. "We now have preliminary figures for June credit rates, and we find that for new loans, the rates are lower by at least 50 basis points (bps)... within two months of our 50-bp cut, we are in June, and the whole of the monetary policy transmission has happened.
Strong domestic growth will continue to draw foreign investment into the Indian economy, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Tuesday. He said this was reflected in recent free trade agreements and investment commitments by large technology companies.
The banking sector could see better loan growth in the third quarter of financial year 2026 (Q3FY26) with improved net interest margins (NIMs), though the full impact of latest rate cuts will be largely felt in the fourth quarter. There may be lower slippage in unsecured loans and microfinance institutions (MFIs) along with steady recovery trends, which should lower credit cost.
Bank lending to companies is expected to go up in the coming quarters because the difference in interest rates between corporate bonds and bank loans has narrowed. In addition, recent policy reforms by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), including allowing domestic banks to do acquisition financing, are expected to give further support to corporate lending, analysts said.
Foreign investors fled Indian equities in 2025 at a scale never seen before, pulling out a record Rs 1.6 lakh crore (USD 18 billion) as volatile currency movements, global trade tensions, especially potential US tariffs, and stretched valuations eroded risk appetite, though flows are expected to turn sustainably positive in 2026.
India has managed high government debt-to-GDP, a slowing domestic revenue engine, lower household savings and a more hostile geopolitical environment separately in the past. But together, they threaten to undo the growth narrative on which today's optimism rests, warns Debashis Basu.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday delivered a 25 basis point (bps) repo rate cut analysts expected, driven by the strong 8.2 per cent GDP growth in the September quarter. However, analysts do not expect a runaway market rally as the impact of US tariffs continues.
Silver prices extended their record-breaking rally for a sixth straight session on Monday, surging 6 per cent to touch a lifetime high of Rs 2,54,174 per kilogram in futures trade amid strong investor demand and bullish global trends. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), silver futures for March delivery surged Rs 14,387, or 6 per cent, to hit a new record of Rs 2,54,174 per kilogram.
Private sector lender IDFC First Bank has lowered its savings account rates and introduced new slabs for small and medium balance categories, effective January 9, 2025, as per its website. The interest slabs and rates for higher balance accounts remain unchanged. Despite the revision, the bank continues to offer one of the highest savings account interest rates in the industry among mid-sized banks.
India was being evaluated for a potential weight of around 1 per cent in the index, an allocation that could have translated into $25 billion of inflows, spread over roughly 10 months.
With lower GST rates taking effect, fast-moving consumer goods players face challenges in setting reduced prices for their products in round figures, but expect the magical price points to be restored within two months.
'Rate cut looks unlikely and there is reason to believe that the cycle is over.'
Retail inflation rose to a three-month high of 1.33 per cent in December 2025 mainly due to higher prices of kitchen essentials, including vegetables and protein-rich items.
'Retail portfolios were going nowhere even as headline indices moved higher, prompting investors to sell holdings and shift money to IPOs, attracted by listing-day gains.'
Gold ETFs attracted around Rs 11,700 crore, the highest in a calendar month.
The government should refrain from raising income tax surcharge on the super-rich and reintroducing wealth tax in the upcoming 2026-27 Budget, as the move could prompt persons in high-income brackets to leave the country for low-tax jurisdictions, according to tax experts.
The first day of the year 2026 was positive for the debt market with foreign investors buying a net domestic debt of Rs 7,524 crore, the highest single-day inflow since May 29 last year.
Reserve Bank will "wait and watch" the evolving situation before deciding on any further rate cut, Governor Sanjay Malhotra has said as he emphasised that both growth and price stability are equally important. With inflation on a downward trend, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has been reducing the benchmark repo rate and has adopted a neutral stance, which also gives the flexibility to either cut or hike the rate going forward. The central bank has cummulatively reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points since February.
Lower rates effectively increase disposable income, strengthen purchasing capacity, and support broader consumption growth.
Gold and silver prices are poised to maintain their record-setting rally in the coming week as investors focus on global inflation data and key macroeconomic indicators that shape central bank policy paths, analysts said.
Equity markets fell on Monday, with benchmark indices recording their worst session in over two months amid caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed's) policy announcement and renewed uncertainty over the US-India trade deal. Sustained selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) also weighed on sentiment.
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Axis Bank and Infosys were among the major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Asian Paints emerged as the laggards from the pack.
With the interest rate cut cycle nearing its end, several debt fund managers are shifting their focus towards interest income rather than betting on duration in anticipation of capital gains.
Rural India outpaced urban centres in passenger vehicle sales in 2025, recording a growth of 12 per cent compared with 8 per cent in cities.
Among Sensex firms, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Adani Ports, Sun Pharma, Tech Mahindra, Eternal, Axis Bank and Maruti were the major laggards. However, ITC, UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel and HDFC Bank were among the gainers.
Among the Sensex constituents, Eternal, Trent, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consultancy Services, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Larsen & Toubro and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles were the laggards. However, Tata Steel, Sun Pharmaceuticals, ITC, NTPC, Reliance Industries, HCL Technologies, PowerGrid, and Asian Paints were among the gainers.
Among the Sensex constituents, Eternal, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, Maruti Suzuki India, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Infosys, Trent, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries and HCL Technologies were the gainers. However, Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, PowerGrid, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and Titan were among the laggards.
Sanjay Malhotra has made structural changes to banking regulation to bring down costs and increase efficiency. Plus, he kicked off a benign interest regime. But there are challenges ahead.
The stock of automative major Eicher Motors hit its all-time high on Wednesday, capping the year with gains of about 52.7 per cent. It has comfortably outperformed its sector index, the Nifty Auto, which jumped 22.7 per cent, as well as the benchmark Nifty, which rose 10 per cent during this period.
From the 30-Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics, Power Grid, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Asian Paints, Reliance Industries, and Bajaj Finserv were among the biggest gainers. However, HCL Tech, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, and Sun Pharma were the laggards.
Net direct tax collection grew 8 per cent to over Rs 17.04 lakh crore this fiscal till December 17 on slower refunds and higher advance taxes from corporates, the income tax department data showed on Friday.
The core dilemma remains: Why provide further stimulus to an economy that is already booming at an 8 per cent growth rate? asks Rajeswari Sengupta.
The consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation hitting an all-time low in October would encourage the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the policy repo rate in its upcoming December 3-5 meeting. However, the July-September GDP growth, expected to be above 7 per cent, may act as a deterrent.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.4 per cent, from 6.9 per cent, on increased consumer spending and improved sentiment boosted by GST reforms.
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