Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
Indian equities on Dalal Street saw volatility as global market trends and fresh tariff concerns linked to Donald Trump impacted investor sentiment. Track Sensex, Nifty50 movement and key market drivers for Feb 24, 2026.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline, primarily driven by a selloff in IT stocks due to concerns about AI disruption and renewed worries over global trade.
The rupee declined 31 paise to settle at 90.65 against the US dollar on Friday, weighed down by geopolitical uncertainties over the US-Iran talks, and a sharp rise in global crude oil prices.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply by nearly 1 per cent on Monday, driven by strong buying in power, banking, and financial stocks.
Bharat Electronics, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, InterGlobe Aviation, ICICI Bank and UltraTech Cement were among the other major gainers. Axis Bank, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Trent and Titan were the laggards.
The latest decision of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, commonly known as Opec+, to boost output is being seen as an attempt to regain market share lost to the US, Brazil, and other oil producers, who have been increasing production recently.
The rupee appreciated 13 paise to close at 90.34 against the US dollar on Thursday, on trade deal optimism and overnight decline in commodity prices, even as the upside remained capped as investors look for more clarity on the India-US trade deal.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
The rupee appreciated 53 paise to close at 89.67 against the US dollar on Friday, supported by corporate dollar inflows and easing crude oil prices. Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities and Brent crude oil prices hovering near $59 per barrel supported the domestic unit at lower levels.
Market sentiment is likely to remain cautious as investors position themselves for the upcoming Union Budget and the US Fed's interest rate decision, where expectations are muted.
The fiscal tilt towards capex benefits companies in investment-related sectors like capital goods, defence equipment, engineering & construction and metal & mining. The planned cut in revenue expenditure will weigh on companies in consumption sectors like FMCG, consumer durables and retail.
'We believe the truth is in the middle, and that India is at an important crossroads.'
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets are expected to track Q3 corporate earnings from several blue-chip firms, including TCS and Infosys, while inflation data and global trends would also dictate investors' sentiment, analysts said.
India could save $1 billion in crude oil imports annually if the country switches 10 per cent of its diesel usage in the transport sector to liquefied natural gas.
'The immediate impact for India will be very minimal as the share of Venezuela in our total overseas production is very low.'
State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has reported a 10 per cent decline in its June quarter net profit on lower oil prices and stagnant production from its aging fields. The company reported a net profit of Rs 8,024 crore in the first quarter of 2025-26 fiscal year, compared to Rs 8,938 crore earning in the same period last year, a company statement said.
The US government, under President Trump, justifies the intervention as a security necessity rather than a resource grab. The primary official reasons include: narco-terrorism charges, national security and migration crisis.
Baghaei also alleged that recent unrest in Iran was fuelled by foreign interference, claiming riots were triggered by "very evident" interventionist remarks by US and Israeli officials.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
Shares of tyre manufacturers have outperformed broader equity benchmarks, buoyed by multiple tailwinds. Softer raw material prices, an uptick in demand from automakers following the reduction of the goods and services tax (GST) rates, and steady replacement demand have lifted sentiment toward the sector.
The rupee breached 90-levels against the greenback for the first time on Wednesday, falling 6 paise to 90.02 in early trade, as banks kept buying US dollars at higher levels and FII outflows continued.
Stock markets are likely to trade in a range-bound manner in a holiday-shortened week where trading activity of foreign investors, currency movement and global macroeconomic data announcements are expected to drive sentiments, analysts said. Several global markets may see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays, an expert said.
The Indian rupee, swaying through multiple headwinds, tiding over global trade disruptions and massive foreign fund outlfows, is unlikely to arrest its descent until tariff impact overhangs, notwithstanding robust domestic macroeconomic tailwinds. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which sees the rupee's depreciation as a silver bullet to offset the tariff shock, expects the currency to find its stable course once India reaches a trade deal with its largest trading partner, the US.
The rupee fell 23 paise against the greenback to settle at a new all-time low of 91.01 (provisional) on Tuesday, weighed down by relentless foreign fund outflows, no breakthrough in India-US trade deal, and persistent US dollar buying.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
From the Sensex pack, Sun Pharma, Eternal, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank and Bajaj Finserv were among the major laggards. In contrast, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Asian Paints and Maruti were among the gainers.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have updated their outlook for the Indian markets, and they now expect the Sensex to hit the 107,000 mark by December 2026 in a bull-case scenario, translating into an upside of 26 per cent from current levels.
Asian Paints reported a good performance for the second quarter (July-September) of 2025-26 (Q2FY26), with some help from base effects, despite strong competition and extended monsoon. Volume grew in low double digits in the key domestic decorative paints, and value in that segment grew by 6 per cent. Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) grew 21 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), and PAT (profit after tax) grew 14 per cent. Asian Paints also defended market share better after several quarters where it had lost ground to Birla Opus.
Notwithstanding global headwinds, the Indian economy saw further momentum in October on the back of goods and services tax (GST) rate rationalisation and festival spending, as indicated by high-frequency indicators, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monthly State of the Economy report said.
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Axis Bank and Infosys were among the major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Asian Paints emerged as the laggards from the pack.
India's decision to import LPG from the US helps it to diversify sources as it reduces almost full reliance on West Asian countries for supply of the country's primary cooking fuel.
The best way for India to prepare is by preserving and strengthening the RBI's hard-won credibility, point out Rajeswari Sengupta and Vaishali Garga.
Sanctioning Russian oil would have led to a sharp surge in oil prices to above $80 per barrel levels, which would impact pump prices in the US ahead of midterm elections next year.
Stock market sentiment is likely to remain optimistic going ahead, though some consolidation cannot be ruled out after the recent sharp rally in the benchmarks, analysts said. According to experts, the Nifty and Sensex could indeed move towards new record highs before the end of the year, if global cues stay supportive, crude oil prices remain benign and there is continued domestic earnings momentum.
Whether Trump will actually press ahead with the oil sanctions remains unclear, since keeping Russian oil out of the world market risks high oil prices which could boomerang on the US economy and be damaging politically for Trump, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
Saudi Arabia's steep cut in LPG benchmark prices has pushed India's household LPG underrecoveries to their lowest level in over two years, slashing oil companies' losses from Rs 200-250 per cylinder last year to about Rs 20-40 now.
Equity market investors would track global trends, foreign fund movement and quarterly earnings in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock exchanges BSE and NSE will conduct a special Muhurat trading session on Tuesday, October 21.
Packaged food major Nestle India posted better than expected September quarter results led by strong volume growth across its key segments. While there were margin pressures due to elevated raw material costs, there could be some relief with easing prices in the near term.
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