India's industrial production rose by 7.1 per cent in November 2022 after contracting in October, according to official data released on Thursday. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 1 per cent in November 2021.
Retail inflation breached the RBI's comfort zone and rose to a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January, mainly on account of a spike in food prices, as per government data released on Monday. The inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 5.72 per cent December and 6.01 per cent in January 2022.
Retail inflation rose to three-month high of 4.81 per cent in June, mainly on account of hardening prices of food, according to the government data. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.31 per per (revised upward from 4.25 per cent) in May and 7 per cent in June 2022. The inflation, however, remains within the RBI's comfort level of below 6 per cent.
India's industrial production rose 1.9 per cent in March 2022, according to official data released on Thursday. As per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the manufacturing sector's output grew 0.9 per cent in March 2022. Mining output climbed 4 per cent, and power generation increased 6.1 per cent.
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
Retail inflation cut short its three-month declining trend and inched up to 7 per cent in August mainly due to higher food prices, according to official data released on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation was 6.71 per cent in July and 5.3 per cent in August 2021. The CPI inflation has remained above the RBI's comfort level of 6 per cent for the eighth month in a row.
Industrial output grew by 7.1 per cent in April on better performance by power and mining sectors, as per government data released on Friday. Manufacturing sector recorded a growth of 6.3 per cent in the first month of the current financial year, as per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO). It further said growth rates over corresponding period of the previous year are to be interpreted considering the unusual circumstances on account of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020.
In a double delight, retail inflation eased to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent - staying below the upper tolerance limit for two months in a row, while factory output rose sharply to 7.2 per cent on the back of healthy growth in manufacturing. The retail inflation numbers based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide some room for the Reserve Bank to further moderate the quantum of hike in key interest rate or even press a pause button. The RBI has been on a rate hiking spree since May 2022 in its bid to tame inflation, having raised the repo rate by a cumulative 225 basis points (bps).
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Thursday. India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
India's urban unemployment rate declined in Q4FY23 to 6.8 per cent - the lowest in over four years -- after it stagnated at 7.2 per cent in the previous October-December quarter, reflecting improvement in the labour market, according to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Monday. The unemployment rate in current weekly status (CWS) terms for all ages in the March quarter was the lowest recorded in more than four years, from the time the NSO released India's first quarterly urban jobless rate for the December quarter in 2018. The jobless rate in urban areas had been on a continuous decline since the peak of 20.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of FY21.
Retail inflation declined to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent in December 2022, mainly due to softening prices of food items, according to official data released on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 5.88 per cent in November 2022 and 5.66 per cent in December 2021.
In the jobs created in 2022, the share of those in the age group 18-25 increased to at least a five-year high of 56 per cent. A Business Standard analysis of the monthly Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) payroll data shows in 2018 the share of youths among the new EPFO subscribers was 50.9 per cent. The National Statistical Office is releasing the monthly EPFO payroll data since April 2018 as part of the government's effort to track formal-sector employment by using payrolls as an instrument.
The government may be staring at a modest slippage in fiscal deficit for 2022-23 (FY23), with the Ministry of Finance seeking parliamentary approval for additional spending through a second and final tranche of supplementary demands for grants. On Monday, as the Budget session of Parliament resumed, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman sought Parliament approval for additional gross spending of Rs 2.7 trillion in FY23 (which ends on March 31). While net cash outgo is pegged at Rs 1.48 trillion, the rest will be matched by savings or enhanced receipts, the finance ministry said.
Retail inflation declined to an 18-month low of 4.7 per cent in April mainly due to falling prices of vegetables, oils and fats, and came closer to Reserve Bank's target of 4 per cent, showed government data released Friday. It was for the second month in a row that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation remained within the RBI's comfort zone of below 6 per cent. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.
Retail inflation rose marginally to 4.91 per cent in November, mainly due to an uptick in food prices, government data showed on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 4.48 per cent in October 2021 and 6.93 per cent in November 2020. As per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), food inflation was at 1.87 per cent in November this year compared to 0.85 per cent in the preceding month.
The Indian economy is estimated to grow at 7 per cent in the 2022-23 fiscal, down from 8.7 per cent a year ago, mainly due poor performance of mining and manufacturing sectors. As per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday, the manufacturing sector output is estimated to decelerate to 1.6 per cent in the current fiscal from 9.9 per cent in 2021-22. Similarly, mining sector growth is estimated at 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal as against 11.5 per cent in 2021-22.
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
The central government is likely to further consolidate its fiscal deficit by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.9 per cent in FY24 from 6.4 per cent in FY23, according to a recent report released by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday. In the current fiscal year, there is going to be an upside of 0.5 per cent on the receipts side due to higher nominal GDP growth, and higher tax buoyancy because of the formalisation, the report said. The upside to expenditure is mainly going to come from incremental subsidies (0.8 per cent of GDP), in both food and fertilizer, it said. The upcoming pre-election Budget will carry forward the trend of the increased capital expenditure seen in recent years.
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
Mining output climbed 23.3 per cent and power generation increased 7.5 per cent in May. The IIP had contracted 33.4 per cent in May 2020. Industrial production has been hit due to the coronavirus pandemic since March last year when it had contracted 18.7 per cent. It shrank 57.3 per cent in April 2020 due to decline in economic activities in the wake of the lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus infections. The IIP had registered a growth of 5.2 per cent in February last year.
India's economy grew 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, pushing up the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent, official data showed on Wednesday.
India's industrial production contracted by 4 per cent in October, the sharpest fall in 26 months, mainly due to decline in output of manufacturing and subdued performance of mining and power generation sectors, according to official data released on Monday. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had grown 4.2 per cent in October 2021. The previous low was (-) 7.1 per cent in August 2020.
Retail inflation eased to 4.06 per cent in January, mainly on account of a decline in vegetable prices, as per government data released on Friday. The inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 4.59 per cent in December 2020.
Retail inflation fell to a 15-month low of 5.66 per cent in March, mainly due to a decline in food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The inflation figure in March is within the RBI's comfort zone as it is below 6 per cent. The retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.44 per cent in February 2023 and 6.95 per cent in the year-ago period.
As a percentage contributor to nominal GDP, PFCE's share was 60.1 per cent in FY23, compared with 59.6 per cent and 60.8 per cent in the two preceding fiscal years. "Although PFCE is expected to grow 7.7 per cent in FY23, we believe it is still short of a broad-based recovery. "The current consumption demand is highly skewed in favour of goods and services consumed largely by the households falling in the upper income bracket. "A broad-based consumption recovery, therefore, is still some distance away," said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist with India Ratings.
'The government should act proactively to instil confidence in the private investors, and also boost the purchasing power of people directly or indirectly by ensuring minimum wages.'
India's economy grew by 6.3 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal, official data released on Wednesday showed.
Lead indicators suggest that domestic current account deficit (CAD) is likely to reduce in 2023, while macro-economic stability has received a boost from inflation being brought back to the official tolerance band, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) January 2023 Bulletin. "With the merchandise trade deficit reaching an all-time high of $83.5 billion in a quarter, and a rise in net outgo from the income account, the current account deficit increased to 4.4 per cent of GDP in Q2FY23," the State of the Economy article in the bulletin said. "It is noteworthy, however, that the CAD for Q1 was revised down from 2.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent on account of downward adjustment in Customs data.
Claims of a spike in poverty and inequality in India during the Covid-19 pandemic are patently false as such claims are based on uncomparable different surveys, according to a paper co-authored by eminent economist Arvind Panagariya. The paper also noted that inequality fell in the country during Covid years, both in rural and urban areas as well as nationally. Panagariya, Columbia University Professor and former vice chairman of NITI Aayog and Vishal More of Intelink Advisors, New Delhi have co-authored a detailed paper 'Poverty and Inequality in India: Before and After Covid-19'.
'We should look at is full year's growth rather than quarter numbers.'
The country's GDP is likely to grow at 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21 and may see a contraction of around 7.3 per cent for the full financial year, according to an SBI research report 'Ecowrap'. The e-National Statistical Office (NSO) will release the GDP estimates for the March 2021 quarter and provisional annual estimates for the year 2020-21 on May 31. "Based on our 'nowcasting model', the forecasted GDP growth for Q4 would be around 1.3 per cent (with downward bias) as against NSO (National Statistical Office) projection of a negative (-)1 per cent," the research report said.
India's economic growth surged to 20.1 per cent in the April-June quarter of this fiscal, helped by a low base of the year-ago period, despite a devastating second wave of COVID-19. The gross domestic product (GDP) had contracted by 24.4 per cent in the corresponding April-June quarter of 2020-21, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. The government had imposed a nationwide lockdown at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic last year.
India's economic growth slowed down to 4.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2022-23 mainly due to poor performance of the manufacturing sector. In October-December 2021, the economy grew by 11.2 per cent and by 6.3 per cent in the July-September 2022 quarter, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday.
India's economy grew by 13.5 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal, mainly due to the base effect, official data showed on Wednesday. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 20.1 per cent in the corresponding April-June period of 2021-22, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO). Many analysts had projected the Indian economy will expand at a double-digit growth rate due to the base effect.
Sounding a note of caution, former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has said that India is "dangerously close" to the Hindu rate of growth in view of subdued private sector investment, high interest rates and slowing global growth. Rajan said that sequential slowdown in the quarterly growth, as revealed by the latest estimate of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last month, was worrying. Hindu rate of growth is a term describing low Indian economic growth rates from the 1950s to the 1980s, which averaged around 4 per cent.
The economic growth may have slowed to 3.5 per cent in fourth quarter of 2021-22 from 5.4 per cent in the previous three-month period due to the impact of higher commodity prices on margins, decline in wheat yields and on higher base, Icra Ratings said on Monday. The agency said the hiccups in the recovery of the contact-intensive services attributable to the third wave of Covid-19 in the country may have also affected the economic growth in the quarter. Even the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) in Q4 FY2022 seems to have eased to 2.7 per cent from 4.7 per cent in Q3 FY2022, it said.
'80% of the rural and urban population don't have enough purchasing power.'
Retail inflation softened to 6.71 per cent in July due to moderation in food prices but remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the seventh consecutive month. With retail inflation continuing to remain high despite a fall in prices of vegetables and edible oils, among other commodities in July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might go for another rate hike in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 7.01 per cent in June and 5.59 per cent in July 2021. It was above 7 per cent from April to June this fiscal.
Retail inflation dropped marginally to 7.01 per cent in June mainly due to slight easing in prices of vegetables and pulses, though it still remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level for the sixth month in a row. The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation stood at 7.04 per cent in the preceding month of May and 6.26 per cent in June 2021. Inflation in the food basket in June 2022 was 7.75 per cent, compared to 7.97 per cent in the previous month, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Tuesday.
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