The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the major factors that would dictate terms in the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. From the global front, interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan would also influence market trends.
'From a risk-return perspective, large-cap funds may generate lower-than-historical average returns in 2024, whereas mid-, and small-cap funds hardly have any upside left.'
India's inclusion in JP Morgan's bond index can channel billions of dollars into India. How will the government securities market handle it?
With the first quarter earnings season coming to an end, the domestic equity markets would be driven by global trends and trading activity of foreign investors this week, analysts said. The movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee against the dollar would also drive trends in the market. "Macroeconomic indicators, trends in global stock markets and FII activities will be pivotal in shaping market trends in the coming days," Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
Brokerages believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) stronger-than-expected showing in state elections reduces political risks for the domestic markets going into 2024. However, after the short-term excitement, the focus will soon shift to earnings, global liquidity conditions, and the interest rate trajectory. "BJP's win in the three state elections is much better than what exit polls suggested and reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win in the 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of 300+ seats for the BJP.
Now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the Budget could be a good starting point, argues Rajesh Kumar.
Titan, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Power Grid, NTPC and Tata Motors were among the among the major gainers. Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Nestle, JSW Steel, Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra and Maruti were the major laggards.
While the corporate sector has benefited from massive capital expenditure, leading to sky-rocketing stock prices, investors would do well to keep an eye on the macroeconomic picture and government finances, not just corporate profits, for signs of trouble, alerts Debashis Basu.
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The real requirement for the finance minister's explanatory speech is to explain the measures taken in the Budget to influence inflation and growth not just through the announcement of a deficit goal, but more broadly through the impact on money supply, consumer demand, foreign trade and investment, explains Nitin Desai.
Higher valuation creation in companies beyond the top 100 has given the domestic markets a shot at a $4 trillion market capitalisation (mcap) - a club exclusive to three countries currently. On November 23, the mcap of all BSE-listed stocks finished at a new record of Rs 328.33 trillion ($3.94 trillion), despite the benchmark indices ending with losses. The mcap was propelled by gains in the broader market, including small and midcap stocks - a trend dominant this year.
Stock markets this week would take cues from global trends, the announcement of domestic macroeconomic data such as GDP numbers and foreign fund movement, analysts said. Besides, monthly auto sales and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for manufacturing and services sectors would also influence trading in the market, they added. Benchmark BSE Sensex tumbled 1,538.64 points or 2.52 per cent last week amid concerns that the US Federal Reserve might raise interest rates further to curb inflation.
TCS saw its headcount reduced by 6,333. Infosys' headcount decreased by almost 7,500, and HCLTech saw its employee numbers shrink by 2,299.
After falling 10 per cent against the greenback in 2022, the rupee staged a comeback in 2023 as it appreciated, albeit marginally, on the back of strong portfolio inflows, in addition to timely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India. The Indian unit appreciated by 0.16 percent in six months until June 28. The rupee stood in third place in terms of appreciation against the US dollar among the 12 Asian currencies and in 12th place of the 23 emerging-market currencies.
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
Even though Bharat Forge's performance in the July-September quarter broadly met Street estimates and defence orders are on the rise, the subdued outlook for its global business has prompted some brokerages to adopt a cautious stance on the company. Analysts have reduced the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates to account for the slow recovery of its overseas subsidiaries. Valuations are also trading at long-term averages, which could limit potential upsides.
'We have focused on it quarter after quarter and started to build the pipeline.'
The net leasing of Grade-A commercial office space in India will stagnate this financial year at 32-34 million square feet, with global uncertainties brewing caution among key tenant categories, according to the latest Crisil Ratings report. Major seven cities in India - Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), National Capital Region (NCR) and Pune - had Grade-A office space with an operational stock of around 705 million square feet as of March 2023. India's commercial office space is dominated by technology companies, with information technology (IT) and IT-enabled services (ITeS) companies occupying 42-45 per cent of the operational stock.
Diesel sales in India fell 3 per cent in September as a receding monsoon continued to dampen demand and slowed industrial activity in some parts of the country, preliminary data of state-owned firms showed. While diesel sales by three state-owned fuel retailers fell year-on-year, petrol sales rose in September. Consumption of diesel, the most consumed fuel in the country -- accounting for about two-fifths of the demand, fell to 5.81 million tonnes in September from 5.99 million tonnes demand in the same period a year ago.
Strong macroeconomic headwinds causing turbulence in the $245-billion Indian IT industry are yet to calm down. Top Indian IT services companies are likely to post a decline or just marginal growth in sequential revenue in Q1FY24 because of a soft discretionary spending environment. Though the first quarter is seasonally strong for IT firms, "June 2023 will be an exception", according to analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities.
The government is "extremely disappointed" with the latest report of the Moody's rating agency on India's economic outlook. The report, a senior government official said, was highly contradictory and called the rating agency's credibility into question. Referring to the Moody's statement that "India's fiscal strength remains a key weakness in the sovereign credit profile...", the official remarked: "How can my strength be my weakness? Moreover, they are unwilling to have a like-to-like comparison with India."
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms jumped to an all-time high of Rs 304.53 lakh crore on Wednesday, buoyed by an unprecedented rally in equities where the BSE benchmark Sensex ended over the 67,000-mark for the first time ever. Rallying for the fifth day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 302.30 points, or 0.45 per cent, to end at its lifetime closing high of 67,097.44 points. During the day, it jumped 376.24 points, or 0.56 per cent, to reach its all-time intra-day peak of 67,171.38 points.
From the Sensex pack, Power Grid, Infosys, Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra, HCL Technologies, IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank and Titan were the major gainers. Tata Steel and Bharti Airtel were the laggards.
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One of the key factors contributing to the decline in the value of the rupee against the US dollar is the tightening yield spread between the 10-year India government bond and the US government bond. The yield on 10-year Indian government bonds is now only 295 basis points higher than that of US 10-year treasury bonds, the lowest since January 2007. Lower spread means lower incentive for foreign investors to invest in rupee assets, which adversely affects foreign capital inflows into the country and weighs on the rupee-dollar exchange rate.
We must use the crisis to find the sensible middle ground between finance fetishism on the one hand, and status quo statism on the other.
Flipkart, the e-commerce company owned by Walmart, is intensifying its efforts to achieve profitability as it is eyeing a valuation of approximately $60 billion at the time of its initial public offering (IPO), now planned in 2025-2026, instead of this year, according to people familiar with the matter. The firm might consider listing in the US or any other geography, including India. The company, which counts the likes of Amazon and Reliance's JioMart among its competitors in India's burgeoning e-commerce market, had also contemplated launching an IPO in 2022-2023.
The recovering valuations, will lead to enhanced optimism among investors about funding startups.
The move comes barely a week after fellow crypto unicorn CoinDCX laid off 12 per cent of its workforce - an estimated 80 employees - amid challenging macroeconomic conditions and regulatory uncertainty in the sector. CoinSwitch has 519 employees, according to its LinkedIn profile. This means around 8 per cent of its workforce were shown the door.
From the Sensex pack, ITC, Titan, Asian Paints, Reliance, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Nestle and ICICI Bank were the major gainers. Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, HCL Technologies, State Bank of India, Bharti Airtel and Tata Motors were among the laggards.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
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Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pumped in Rs 43,838 crore in Indian equities in May, the highest level in nine months, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, and reasonable valuations. FPIs continued the buying stance in June too, and invested Rs 6,490 crore in just two trading sessions of the month, data with the repositories showed. VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said that inflow by FPIs will continue in the current month since the latest GDP data and high-frequency indicators reflect a robust economy gaining further strength.
The unprecedentedly poor macroeconomic numbers for 2011 are the price of government mismanagement.
From the Sensex pack, NTPC, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, State Bank of India, Tata Motors, ITC, Power Grid and Larsen & Toubro were the biggest gainers. IndusInd Bank climbed 2 per cent after the company on Tuesday reported a 30 per cent jump in consolidated net profit in April-June quarter at Rs 2,124.50 crore, helped by core income growth and lower bad loan provisions.
The finance ministry has cautioned that global and regional uncertainties and domestic disruptions may keep inflationary pressures elevated in the coming months, warranting "greater vigilance" by the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). "Russia's decision to terminate the Black Sea grain deal, along with dry conditions in major wheat-growing areas, caused a price spike in cereals. Domestic factors like white fly disease and an uneven distribution of monsoon exerted pressure on vegetable prices in India," the ministry said in its latest Monthly Economic Report for July, released on Tuesday. However, the report maintained, the recent price surge in certain food items "is expected to be transitory". "Tomato prices are likely to decline with the arrival of fresh stocks by the end of August or early September.
Given the uncertain macroeconomic conditions, most brokerages have turned slightly cautious on the pace of growth in State Bank of India's (SBI's) earnings going ahead. While they don't see any significant risk arising for now, its sheer balance sheet size and systematic importance has nudged them to cut earnings estimates for fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24) and 2024-25 (FY25) up to 5 per cent. India's largest state-owned bank, on Thursday, reported standalone net profit of Rs 16,694.51 crore for Q4FY23.
India's trade account could come under pressure and there could be an inflation push if crude oil prices remain above the $90 per barrel (Brent) for a prolonged period since India imports over 85 per cent of its oil and roughly 50 per cent of its gas. A rebound in economic activity is bound to lead to higher fuel demand. While India is the third-largest importer of crude, it is a net exporter of refined products, which helps to compensate to some degree.
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