Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week, according to analysts.
'As we navigate uncertain waters, a conservative approach to largecap investing could provide a strategic advantage.'
Widespread use of crypto assets, including stablecoins, can have a negative impact on the macroeconomic and financial stability of a country, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday. In its Financial Stability Report (FSR), the banking regulator highlighted that excessive use of crypto assets can reduce effectiveness of monetary policy, worsen fiscal risks, circumvent capital flow management measures, divert resources available for financing the real economy and threaten global financial stability.
Invest with a 5 to 7 year horizon so that you are able to ride out price volatility and benefit from the long-term trends of demand and macroeconomic shifts.
Invest in these funds through the SIP route with at least a seven-year horizon.
Value mutual funds have witnessed robust investor interest, garnering Rs 22,757 crore in inflows in 2024, nearly double the amount seen in 2023, fueled by impressive returns generated by the segment. This surge reflects a shift in investor focus towards fundamentally strong yet undervalued stocks.
Equity markets this week will take cues from global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings, with TCS kick-starting the results calendar on Thursday, analysts said.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the 11th time in a row but sharply lowered the GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal, as against earlier projection of 7.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the status quo on interest rate despite July-September quarter GDP growth falling to 7-quarter low of 5.4 per cent, as against its own projection of 7 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
Automobile dispatches from companies to dealers rose 12 per cent last year compared to 2023 on the back of positive consumer sentiments which aided robust demand for two-wheelers, industry body SIAM said on Tuesday. Total wholesales across categories rose to 2,54,98,763 units in 2024 against 228,39,130 units in 2023, a growth of 11.6 per cent.
Macroeconomic data announcements, trading activity of foreign investors and global trends will guide equity market movement this week, which would also mark the beginning of the new calendar year and month, analysts said.
The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
With India overtaking China in terms of weightage in the Morgan Stanley emerging markets IMI, Indian equities could see inflows of about $4.5 billion (Rs 37,000 crore), according to estimates. This week, Morgan Stanley announced that India has overtaken China in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (MSCI EM IMI). The weight of India in MSCI EM IMI stood at 22.27 per cent compared to 21.58 per cent of China.
Equity mutual funds witnessed an inflow of Rs 35,943 crore in November, marking a drop of 14 per cent on a month-on-month basis, amid heightened volatility in stock markets driven by various macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events and US election results. Despite this, it marked the 45th consecutive month of net inflows into equity-oriented funds, reflecting the growing popularity of mutual funds among investors, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) released on Tuesday.
'We will be very, very proactive in providing whatever liquidity requirements are needed.'
Macroeconomic data announcements, the last batch of Q1 earnings and global trends are the major factors that would influence trading sentiments in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors would also be a crucial factor in dictating movement in the market. Equity markets would remain closed on Thursday for Independence Day.
"The new structure will substantially reduce taxes on the middle class and leave more money in their hands, boosting household consumption, savings and investment," Sitharaman said presenting what was dubbed as 'reformist' budget for the next fiscal in Lok Sabha.
RBI interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends would guide markets' movement this week, analysts said. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors and the last batch of Q1 earnings announcements would also guide trends in equities. HSBC PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) for the services sector is scheduled to be announced on Monday.
The time is ideal for a 'Dream Budget' akin to the 1991 reforms that sparked high growth and unlocked significant gains in productivity, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
The cumulative rate hikes of 2.5 percentage points by the central bank since May 2022 negatively impacted headline inflation by 1.60 per cent, a paper by senior RBI staffers said on Monday. "Policy rate increases have anchored inflation expectations and modulated aggregate demand, generating disinflationary responses," the paper by Deputy Governor Michael Patra, Indranil Bhattacharyya, Joice John and Avnish Kumar, said.
Retail sales of vehicles across categories in India grew by 11.21 per cent at 32,08,719 units in November, as compared to 28,85,317 units in the same month last year riding on two-wheeler demand, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations said in Monday. Retail sales of two-wheelers were at 26,15,953 units last month, as compared to 22,58,970 units in November 2023, a growth of 15.8 per cent buoyed by the festive spillover.
The Indian market remains an attractive place to do business for the nation's entrepreneurs, with 75 per cent of them operating domestically.
Indian IT hiring landscape is at a pivotal juncture as it transitions from a year of decline towards a more hopeful future. The focus on specialised skills, particularly in AI and data science, combined with geographical shifts towards Tier 2 cities, indicates a transformation within the sector.
The rating agency official did raise concern about the banks' non-performing assets.
The primary market will remain abuzz with more than half a dozen companies, including Hyundai Motor India, Swiggy, and NTPC Green Energy, lined up initial public offerings over the next two months to raise around Rs 60,000 crore, merchant bankers said. Apart from these three firms, Afcons Infrastructure, Waaree Energies, Niva Bupa Health Insurance, One Mobikwik Systems, and Garuda Construction are among the companies planning to launch initial public offerings (IPOs) during October-November, they added. Together, these firms are looking to raise Rs 60,000 crore through their IPOs.
Global factors and FII activity will dictate trends in domestic equity markets this week while assembly poll results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand may impact stocks on Monday, say analysts. Stock markets witnessed a spirited recovery on Friday with benchmark Sensex and Nifty notching the best single-day gains in more than five months and offering relief after weeks of correction.
The finance minister, in her Budget speech, should focus more on what she is directly responsible for, rather than on programmes where her role is largely supportive, notes Nitin Desai.
The US Fed interest rate decision, ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data and FII trading activity are the major triggers that will drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Investors would also track global market trends and the movement in global oil prices for further cues. "This week, the focus will shift to global cues, particularly the US markets," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd said.
India's manufacturing sector growth fell to a joint 11-month low of 56.5 in November, restricted by competitive conditions and inflationary pressures amid a softer increase in factory orders, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 57.5 in October to 56.5 in November, signalling a softer improvement in the health of the sector. However, the pace of growth remained above its long-run average.
Indian economy is in a sweet spot, with a mix of solid growth and moderating inflation, Moody's Ratings said, forecasting a 7.2 per cent GDP growth in the 2024 calendar year and 6.6 per cent in the next. In its Global Macro Outlook 2025-26, the rating agency said the global economy has shown remarkable resilience in bouncing back from supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, an energy and food crisis after the Russia-Ukraine war began, high inflation and consequent monetary policy tightening.
Finance ministers of states demanded an increase in allocation under 50-year interest-free loan scheme, while fiscally stressed states like Punjab and Kerala pitched for a special package and borrowing flexibility, sources said on Friday. In a pre-budget meeting with Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, states have also urged for higher borrowing limits to support fiscal activities, besides additional funds for Jal Jeevan Mission.
Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $3,150 per ounce in the international market by December 2025, up around 19.1 per cent from its current level of $2,645, according to a recent report in Business Standard. Domestically, gold is trading at Rs 76,018 per 10 grams after delivering a remarkable 21.9 per cent return in the past year.
The sharp pullback in mid and smallcap stocks signals a cooling-off period in segments that previously attracted considerable investor interest.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India have crossed the $1 trillion milestone in the April 2000-September 2024 period, firmly establishing the country's reputation as a safe and key investment destination globally. According to data from the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), the cumulative amount of FDI, including equity, reinvested earnings and other capital, stood at $1,033.40 billion during the said period.
'In addition, we have geopolitics and politics and all the other things that will affect commodity prices.'
Reliance Industries' (RIL's) oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business is likely to remain under pressure for the remaining of the current financial year, according to analysts and company executives. "Management guides for softness for the next couple of quarters in both retail and O2C businesses," analysts at BOB Capital Markets noted in an after-results report on RIL. For the July-September quarter (Q2) of 2024-25 (FY25), RIL's O2C business reported a 5.1 per cent year-on-year increase in revenue to Rs 1.55 trillion.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said the FY25 Budget demonstrated the government's ongoing commitment to reducing fiscal deficit and ensured policy continuity during the NDA government's new term. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday presented the first Budget of the Modi 3.0 government in which she revised the deficit target for current fiscal lower to 4.9 per cent of the GDP, from 5.1 per cent projected in the interim Budget.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
