The froth in the small and midcap (SMID) space is limited to a few pockets, but regulatory scrutiny could lead to sustained volatility, observe India's top-drawer wealth managers. They add that they have been advising clients to reduce their exposure to smallcaps. Anand Rathi Wealth, which manages investor wealth through mutual funds (MFs), reports that its exposure to smallcap stocks, both through MFs and directly, has decreased by nearly 7 percentage points in the past few months, now standing at 23 per cent.
The mutual fund (MF) gross inflows through the systematic investment plan (SIP) route topped the Rs 20,000 crore mark for the first time in a calendar month as investors opened a record 6.4 million SIP accounts despite a spike in market volatility. The number of accounts opened last month was almost 50 per cent higher than the registrations seen in March. "India's MF industry has reached yet another milestone with the SIP book crossing above Rs 20,000 crore in April 2024.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
The recent price correction in broader markets has hit cement companies hard. So far in the current month, smallcap firms like Visaka Industries, Andhra Cements NCL Industries, Sahyadri Industries, and KCP have lost 19.7 per cent, 14.3 per cent, 13.8 per cent, 13.5 per cent, and 11.5 per cent, respectively. On the contrary, largecap companies, while registering losses for the month, have seen a softer blow.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
Equity markets may witness a gradual up-move this week with some volatility as both election and earnings season are nearing their end, analysts said, adding that global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would hold significance in dictating investors' sentiment. Benchmark indices, which had a record-breaking rally last week, would also track global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend. The monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday may also fuel volatility in markets.
Market players attribute the rally in small and midcaps to flows from retail investors and domestic institutions.
Many senior citizens 'underestimate the impact of inflation, taxation, health-related expenses, and the heavy premium they will have to pay on health insurance.'
Retail investors now own a larger share of smallcap companies than they did a year ago, thanks to their conviction in mutual fund (MF) schemes focused on this segment. Data from Capitaline shows that MFs' average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 Index stood at 9 per cent at the end of the October-December quarter of 2023-24 (FY24), up from 7.76 per cent in the same quarter of 2022-23.
Actively managed midcap and smallcap schemes that have struggled to beat the benchmark indices in the past year have managed to outperform the indices during the downturn phase. Barring a few schemes, all active funds in the two categories have managed to arrest the decline vis-a-vis the key benchmarks.
'In phases when smaller stocks do well, an equal-weight index performs better than its market cap-weighted peer.'
'...which is possible through flexicap and multicap funds.' 'The latter has a better balance between large, mid and smallcap stocks.'
'Investors need to be stock specific and should not rush to buy stocks at the current levels.'
The country's six largest smallcap schemes would require more than 20 days to liquidate half of their holdings, despite most of them maintaining high cash levels and having considerable exposure to more liquid largecap stocks, stress tests conducted by fund houses reveal. For midcap funds, the time required to sell half of the assets of the top six schemes varies between seven and 34 days, according to disclosures made by asset management companies. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) had called for such tests in the face of strong inflows into smallcap and midcap funds, despite concerns over high valuations, to keep investors better informed.
Given gains in equity prices, it is not surprising that the earnings of asset management companies (AMCs) are growing quicker. The earnings momentum looks set to continue. Good fund performances have thus led to AMC earnings upgrades although valuations are high. Recent market performance and net flow trends have led to earnings upgrades by between 3-8 per cent for FY25-27.
Riding the wave of the equity market, the mutual fund (MF) industry experienced double-digit growth in Samvat 2079, concluding the Hindu calendar year close to the Rs 50 trillion assets under management milestone. After a subdued 6 per cent growth in Samvat 2078, the industry's assets surged over 18 per cent last year to Rs 46.7 trillion. Industry players anticipate that Samvat 2080 will also be a fruitful year for the asset management industry, given the strong inflows from retail investors, particularly through the systematic investment plan route.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has asked fund houses operating smallcap funds with a large corpus to share data on their holdings in the total free float of smallcap stocks, according to sources. This is part of the stress tests that the regulator wants fund houses to undertake amid a surge in inflows into smallcap schemes and growing concerns about valuations. Free float refers to the quantum of freely available shares for trading on the stock market.
In the Sensex pack, NTPC, Tata Steel, SBI and IndusInd Bank were among the major laggards. In contrast, Wipro, HCL Tech, Mahindra & Mahindra and Nestle were among the nine stocks that defied the trend.
Overall market reaction to the Budget was neutral. Investors absorbed the changes to the tax rates (positive for salaried class) and capital gains taxes (CGTs, negative due to the removal of indexation and increases. Other proposals largely pertain to supporting rural development, buybacks taxed as dividends, Custom duty changes that impact multiple sectors, higher outlays for clean energy, etc. There's some moderation in the growth of capex outlay across defence, fer
India's top technology companies will witness a tepid revenue expansion in the third quarter (October - December) of the current financial year (Q3FY24) - along expected lines - on the back of furloughs and no blockbuster deals, even as the momentum gained from Generative AI (GenAI) is likely to take centre stage. IT services and consulting firm Accenture's first quarter numbers in FY24 showed a significant pick up in GenAI spending. It signed new bookings to the tune of $450 million in this space, a surge from the $300 million signed in the whole of FY23.
Invest in MFs for liquidity and choice of funds. Invest in NPS for the tax benefits, tax-free rebalancing, and for earmarked savings for retirement.
ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and NTPC were among the major gainers in the Sensex pack. The five stocks that defied the trend included UltraTech Cement, Mahindra & Mahindra, Titan, Tata Motors and Nestle.
Mumbai-based developers Macrotech Developers (Lodha) and Oberoi Realty have emerged as top gainers among largecap realty stocks over the past month, with gains ranging from 29 per cent to 33 per cent. Strong ongoing sales trends in Mumbai's core market, record bookings in the January-March quarter, and healthy guidance for 2024-25 (FY25) have propelled these companies, which derive the majority of their revenues from India's financial capital.
The impending merger between Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) with HDFC Bank may create challenges for large-cap fund managers, most of whom are already grappling to match the returns generated by their benchmarks. The combined weight following the merger in the benchmark Sensex and Nifty 50 indices is likely to be much higher than permissible limits for active mutual fund (MF) schemes. This could have a bearing on the performance of large-cap funds if HDFC Bank shares outperform the markets, as the schemes will be forced to remain underweight on the stock to adhere to the single-stock cap.
Among the Sensex constituents, as many as 16 stocks closed with losses with Nestle India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserve, Titan and JSW Steel being the major laggards. Index major Reliance, Hindustan Unilever, Maruti and Tata Steel also declined due to selling pressure. In contrast, NTPC, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance bucked the trend and ended the day in green. Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors also defied the trend.
The June quarter is usually considered as a seasonally strong period for the IT sector.
'India represents one of the top opportunities with robust growth, solid fundamentals, and openness to foreign investment.'
'Investors should do proper analysis before putting in their money in NFOs as most new launches are in the high-risk thematic space.'
'Barring a temporary blip where stocks fell on verdict day, we are back to all-time highs.'
Higher valuation creation in companies beyond the top 100 has given the domestic markets a shot at a $4 trillion market capitalisation (mcap) - a club exclusive to three countries currently. On November 23, the mcap of all BSE-listed stocks finished at a new record of Rs 328.33 trillion ($3.94 trillion), despite the benchmark indices ending with losses. The mcap was propelled by gains in the broader market, including small and midcap stocks - a trend dominant this year.
Information technology (IT) companies have been on the road to revival in the past one year. From being the worst-hit sector in 2022 with a loss of 26 per cent, the Nifty IT index closed 2023 with gains of 24 per cent. So far in 2024, the index is up around 7 per cent against the nearly flat Nifty 50 benchmark index. The IT index has been on a continuous decline in the last three sessions.
Mutual funds (MFs) added systematic investment plan (SIP) accounts at a record pace in 2023 with the net additions in the calendar year surpassing 15 million - 24 per cent higher than the 2022 tally of 12.2 million, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
Among the Sensex constituents, 18 stocks closed in negative with UltraTech Cement, L&T, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance and Tech Mahindra being major laggards. Other heavyweights like Asian Paints, Maruti, Titan and JSW Steel also saw heavy selling. In contrast, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finserve, HDFC Bank, ITC and SBI bucked the trend and ended the session with a gain of up to 2.09 per cent.
Among the Sensex constituents, 20 stocks ended the session in green with HDFC Bank, Titan, Tech Mahindra, and Asian Paints being the major gainers. TCS, Maruti, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bajaj Finserve were the other gainers. In contrast, SBI, Bharti Airtel, JSW Steel, PowerGrid, ITC and Reliance closed the trading with losses.
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At a time when exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were unloading Jio Financial Services from their portfolios, some active fund managers were placing large bets on the demerged financial services arm of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), a report by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research shows. Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund and Quant Mutual Fund were the top MF buyers of the stock in August. They bought around 60 million shares each, together investing around Rs 2,800 crore.
A portfolio can be rebalanced by either selling a portion of the outperforming asset class or by buying more of the underperforming asset class.
According to data from BSE, the 4,357 companies available for trade had a combined mcap of around Rs 416 trillion on Tuesday against India's GDP at current prices of Rs 296.6 trillion in FY24.
The mutual fund (MF) industry had an action-packed 2023 as it tackled the scrapping of tax benefits for debt fund investors and surging flows into equity funds.
The improvement in the performance of actively managed mutual fund (MF) schemes is acting as a key tailwind for the nearly Rs 50 trillion industry, Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) said in a report. The report adds that the two largest listed asset management companies (AMCs) - HDFC and Nippon India - are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. "The industry has a solid track record of delivering alpha on 10-year returns (70-80 per cent of assets under management (AUM) beat the benchmark), with shorter duration performance also on an upswing.
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