June rainfall accounts for 15 percent of the total precipitation of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.
Delay in monsoon has affected the sowing operations of various crops during the kharif season, reducing the acreage of these commodities this year.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday retained its projection for retail inflation at 4.5 per cent for the current fiscal assuming a normal monsoon, while emphasising that uncertainties related to food price outlook warrant a close monitoring. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation has been projected at 4.5 per cent with quarter-wise projections at 4.9 per cent in Q1 (April-June), 3.8 per cent in Q2, 4.6 per cent in Q3, and 4.5 per cent in Q4.
Kharif foodgrains production will touch 103 million tonnes in 2003-04 compared to 90.5 million tonnes produced in the last year, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
As a panel of senior ministers deliberates on the need to review curbs on exports of some rice varieties, data shows that since outbound shipments saw restrictions in July-August last year, the non-basmati segment has suffered more than basmati exports. Sources said the panel is expected to soon deliberate on a few suggestions to ease the export curbs on some rice varieties due to higher-than-required stocks in the central pool. The panel, some observers feel, may also postpone the decision to ease the export curbs till a firm picture emerges on the latest kharif paddy sowing.
On May 15, the weather office had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 31.
Onion prices are likely to start shooting up in the retail market towards the end of August before going up further to around Rs 60-70 per kg next month due to tightened supplies, a report said on Friday. However, the prices will remain below the highs of 2020, it said. "The supply-demand imbalance is expected to reflect in onion prices towards end-August. "As per our ground interactions, prices are expected to show significant increase from early September in the retail market, reaching up to Rs 60-70 per kg during the lean patch.
"This year, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days," the India meteorological department said on Wednesday.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday revised upwards the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. "During 2024-25 so far, domestic economic activity has maintained resilience," he said, adding that manufacturing activity continues to gain ground on the back of strengthening domestic demand.
The rains after arriving over Kerala will quickly cover Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, but then might slacken a bit, which could delay its arrival over Northwest India.
India has received 20 per cent less rainfall since the start of the monsoon period on June 1, with the rain-bearing system making no significant progress between June 12 and 18, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Pulses are most vulnerable to pests and diseases if the monsoon remains patchy for the rest of the season.
The wholesale inflation rose to a 13-month high of 1.26 per cent in April fuelled by rising prices of food articles, especially vegetables, amid expectations of RBI holding interest rates in the policy review next month. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation has been rising for two months in a row.
Irrespective of the fact that the monsoon has covered most parts of the country, the next fortnight is going to be crucial for the kharif crop. Concerns over the crop size have still not receded as rain has been deficient till now.
In the coming months, globally as well as in India, rice might remain a hot potato.
'Our target will come from rural areas as there are more outlets there.'
The government on Saturday imposed a minimum export price (MEP) of $800 per tonne on onion exports till December 31 this year with a view to increase availability of the vegetable in the domestic market and contain prices. The decision will come into effect from October 29. Besides, the government has also announced the procurement of additional 2 lakh tonnes of onion for the buffer, over and above the 5 lakh tonnes already procured.
The size of Reserve Bank's balance sheet increased by 11.08 per cent to Rs 70.47 lakh crore as on March 2024, leading to the highest-ever dividend payout to the government, according to the central bank's annual report. In actual terms, the increase was Rs 7,02,946.97 crore over Rs 63.45 lakh crore as on March 2023.
The government's decision to impose a 20 per cent export duty on parboiled rice and a $1,200 per tonne minimum export price (MEP) on basmati rice has pulled down overseas shipments of the former by almost 83 per cent and around 30 per cent of basmati exports in a month. Data sourced from various trade agencies and shippers showed that between August 25 and September 20, export of basmati rice has shrunk from 342,605 tonnes in 2022 to around 241,083 tonnes in 2023. Similarly, export of parboiled rice, after the imposition of 20 per cent duty during the same period, has dropped from 1.16 million tonnes in 2022 to just around 204,190 tonnes in 2023.
Amid the ongoing festival season and ahead of the elections for five state assemblies, the Centre is closely monitoring inflation, particularly in food items, to enable it to take steps to increase their supplies. "There is a complete no-nonsense attitude when it comes to food inflation, and instructions have been issued at all levels to be very sensitive to any possible price movements in any commodity," a senior official explained. Sources have said that all departments dealing with food items have been instructed to keep a close eye on all commodities and maintain a weekly record of their price movements.
The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector has underperformed the Nifty over the past year as its 20 per cent return is trumped by 29 per cent of the benchmark index. The FMCG index saw a 2.2 per cent drop in the last session, while the Nifty lost 1 per cent. FMCG is seen as a defensive segment. The demand for staples like personal care products, groceries and snacks tend to be stable. FMCG companies are consistent dividend-payers.
The government expects onion prices to fall below Rs 40 per kilogram by January from the current average price of Rs 57.02 per kilogram, Consumer Affairs secretary Rohit Kumar Singh said on Monday. Last week, the government banned onion exports till March next year after the retail sales price of the kitchen staple crossed Rs 80 per kg in the national capital and the prices in mandis remained around Rs 60 per kg. To a query on when the onion prices are expected to fall below Rs 40 per kg, Singh said, "very soon... January"
Even before NCP-Ajit Pawar leaders came to meet in Delhi, the central government decided to buy 200,000 tonnes of onions from farmers at Rs 24.1 per quintal. This was among the highest prices at which onions have ever been bought from farmers.
The El Nino impact on the Indian monsoon typically manifests by way of extended break in rainfall.
The government has banned exports of onion till March next year with a view to increase domestic availability and to keep prices in check. "Export policy of onions... is amended from free to prohibited till March 31, 2024," the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) said in a notification. Local vendors in the national capital are selling onions at Rs 70-Rs 80 per kg.
Elections may be a few months away, but the government may get into election mode much earlier than that, predicts A K Bhattacharya.
The southwest monsoon has started on a weak note and this has delayed the sowing of kharif crops. Though a cause for concern, the situation hasn't reached a stage where it warrants any panic response. Moreover, according to meteorologists and industry players, monsoon rains will witness a revival in the coming few weeks.
The rains were being caused due to a cyclonic circulation lying over north east Arabian sea and adjoining Saurashtra and Kutch regions, the IMD said in its bulletin.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the inflation forecast for 2023-24 at 5.4 per cent, and vowed to take timely measures to prevent any spillovers of global food and fuel price shocks. Stressing that the Reserve Bank has identified high inflation as a major risk to macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth, Governor Shaktikanta Das said the September retail inflation number may be lower than August and July prints. The headline inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated to 4.6 per cent in first quarter of 2023-24 as compared to 7.3 per cent in the same period a year ago.
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
The ruling Congress is seeking to retain power in Chhattisgarh by banking on the welfare schemes of the Bhupesh Baghel government, while the Bharatiya Janata Party is hoping to corner it on the issues of alleged corruption, religious conversions and unfulfilled poll promises.
Trade and market players have already started factoring in at least 10 million tonnes drop in production in rice in the kharif season as compared to last year due to delayed sowing.
'Due to rural stress, volumes continue to remain an issue for the industry, and we are yet to see any revival in demand.'
Automobile retail sales in India rose by 9 per cent in August aided by sales growth in all segments, including passenger vehicles and two wheelers, dealers' body FADA said on Tuesday. The total retail sales across segments rose to 18,18,647 units last month, up 9 per cent, from 16,74,162 units in August 2022. Passenger vehicle registrations increased by 7 per cent to 315,153 units last month from 295,842 units in August 2022.
Against predictions by most exit polls that the ruling Congress had an edge in the state, the BJP banked heavily on the charisma of the PM.
'They just say we agree to your demands in the meetings, which is lip service. But on the ground they do not implement anything.'
The state was asked not to publicise the disbursement during the poll code as part of the condition.
Kharif crops were sown in only 4.15 lakh hectares against the target of 28.27 lakh hectares till July 21 or only in 14.71 per cent of the arable land.
The government on Thursday imposed a 20 per cent export duty on non-Basmati rice except for parboiled rice to boost domestic supplies amid a fall in area under the paddy crop in the current Kharif season. According to a notification by the revenue department, an export duty of 20 per cent has been imposed on 'rice in husk (paddy or rough)' and 'husked (brown) rice'. The Central Board of Indirect Taxes & Customs further said the export of 'semi-milled or wholly-milled rice, whether or not polished or glazed(other than Parboiled rice and Basmati rice)' will also attract a customs duty of 20 per cent.
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