Institute of Economic Growth on Friday said domestic interest rates are set to rise in the short term due to surging inflation and hike in international rates.
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With concern on food inflation ebbing with the monsoon progressing well, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is warming up to the idea of a change in stance to "neutral" from "withdrawal of accommodation", according to economists. In his speech on Thursday during the annual event of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry-Indian Banks' Association, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said: "The balance between inflation and growth is well-poised."
Doubling standard deduction to Rs 1 lakh, increasing tax break on interest paid on housing loan and rationalisation of capital gains tax regime are some of the expectations that consultancy firm KPMG has from the Budget 2024-25 to be unveiled on July 23 in Parliament. There has been a significant rise in medical expenses, fuel costs and overall inflation.
State Bank of India chairman A K Purwar said on Friday that interest rates will remain stable in the short term despite rising inflation, and may not remain soft in the medium and long term.
>According to the latest RBI data, PPF receipts have already experienced a decline between April 2023 and February 2024. Other schemes like the Sukanya Samriddhi Account and National Savings Certificate are also witnessing reduced inflows.
The EPFO Board will for the third time meet in New Delhi on Tuesday to decide on the interest to be offered to its three crore subscribers this year, even as trade unions' demand higher returns.
The wholesale inflation rose for the third consecutive month in May at 2.61 per cent on account of rise in prices of food articles, especially vegetables, and manufactured items. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation was 1.26 per cent in the previous month. It was (-) 3.61 per cent in May 2023. "Positive rate of inflation in May, 2024 is primarily due to increase in prices of food articles, manufacture of food products, crude petroleum & natural gas, mineral oils, other manufacturing etc," the ministry of commerce & industry said in a statement on Friday.
'I don't think we have ever seen such alignment of everything that we need in the banking sector.'
In order to boost growth amid some softening of inflation, RBI earlier this month cut the key interest rate by 0.25 per cent. It is scheduled to announce its mid-quarter policy review on June 17.
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'Despite the current uncertainties, the long-term outlook remains constructive due to strong fundamentals, government initiatives, and a stable banking sector.'
State Bank of India has hiked the interest rates offered on non-resident Indian deposits with effect from Friday.
"As long as the global window is open, growth will happen and interest rates will remain stable," ICICI Bank CEO K V Kamath said on Monday.\n\n
With the absence of any major immediate domestic trigger in sight, investors would focus on global trends and trading activity of foreign investors for further cues in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the market. "This week is a truncated one with no major triggers expected. However, we anticipate sector-specific movements amid budget-related buzz.
The interest rates for lending as well as on deposits should be brought down further to reduce the cost of funds for industry and consumers in the country, Union Minister of State for Finance Anandrao Adsul said on Saturday.
'This has become a necessity now to kick start the investment cycle'
The Central Board of Trustees of Employees Provident Fund is likely to defer a decision on interest rate to be given to its more that 4 crore (40 million) employees this fiscal.
Following a review of peer-to-peer (P2P) platforms, certain issues -- including high non-performing asset levels, significantly high balances in escrow accounts, and non-compliance with net owned fund and disclosure requirements -- came to the RBI's attention.
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
The Reserve Bank of India, for the second straight time, on Thursday kept its key policy rate unchanged at 5.15 per cent, maintaining its accommodative policy stance as long as it was necessary to revive growth. The central bank retained GDP growth at 5 per cent for 2019-20 and pegged it at 6 per cent for the next fiscal.
From the Sensex pack, Tata Motors slumped over 7 per cent. Adani Ports, Tata Steel, SBI, Power Grid, JSW Steel and Maruti were the other big laggards. However, Hindustan Unilever and Nestle ended in positive territory.
The finance ministry has voiced the opinion that there was no need for the RBI to increase the key rates that could impact the banks lending rates.
Reserve Bank Governor D Subbaro on Tuesday said there is scope for banks to lower lending rates further, but most top bankers maintained that interest rates will remain the same in the near term and could even rise after 3-4 months.
The core inflation is down and there is a need to push growth.
United Bank of India on Friday said it had decided to bring down interest rates on domestic term deposits of various tenures by 25 to 50 basis points with effect from Saturday.
The apex bank in its monetary policy for 2010-11 hiked the repo and the reverse repo to 5.25 per cent and 3.75 per cent, respectively, and the CRR to 6 per cent.
Attractive investment options available in the current market for retail investors.
Opinions vary, but fund managers remain bullish.
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Customers who possess gold jewellery but are either being denied a personal loan or are being asked for a high interest rate due to their poor credit profile may consider a gold loan.
The Bank of Japan on Friday hiked interest rates from virtually zero (0.069 per cent) to 0.25 per cent.
Liquidity will be tight and inflation would be about 4.4.5 per cent. In this scenario, the 10-year yield is unlikely to stabilise below 6.25 per cent.
'If you look at where inflation (headline and core) is today in India and where the rates are, there's clearly room to cut rates.'