Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty pared early gains to settle lower on Wednesday due to late selling in index major Reliance Industries, ITC and HDFC Bank even as the RBI took the first step towards a rate cut in its monetary policy review. Erasing its early gains, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 167.71 points or 0.21 per cent to close at 81,467.1. During the day, it surged 684.4 points or 0.83 per cent to hit an intra-day high of 82,319.21.
From the 30 Sensex firms, NTPC, Nestle, Titan, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Maruti, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel and HDFC Bank were the biggest gainers. HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Adani Ports, Larsen & Toubro, JSW Steel, State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards from the pack.
Commercial banks in India reported a sixth consecutive year of rise in their net profits in 2023-24 while bad loans continued to fall, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) annual publication "Trends and Progress of Banking in India", released on Thursday. "Banks' profitability rose for the sixth consecutive year in 2023-24 and continued to rise in H1:2024-25 with the return on assets (RoA) at 1.4 per cent and return on equity (RoE) at 14.6 per cent," the report said.
After heavy selling in the past two months, foreign investors have staged a strong comeback to Indian equities with a net investment of Rs 24,454 crore in the first week of December amid stabilising global conditions and expectations of potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This revival follows significant outflows in the preceding months, with foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulling out a net Rs 21,612 crore in November and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October - the worst monthly outflow on record.
Gold prices slumped for the second straight session by Rs 1,150 to Rs 78,350 per 10 grams in the national capital on Monday on frantic selling by stockists and retailers, the All India Sarafa Association said. The precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity closed at Rs 79,500 per 10 grams on Friday.
The performance of banking and information technology (IT) stocks has had a significant impact on the composition of diversified mutual fund (MF) portfolios. Over the past two months, these sectors have become increasingly dominant, now constituting nearly 30 per cent of the total allocation in many diversified MF portfolios.
'We have to retain some fiscal headroom without compromising on the promised fiscal consolidation roadmap.'
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said the decision to tweak policy rates was not in his hand as he himself is driven by the situation on the ground. In April, the Reserve Bank in a surprise move hit the pause button and decided to keep the key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent. Prior to it, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was on a rate hiking spree, raising the repo rate by 250 basis points since May 2022.
'Market corrections are a natural part of investing, so it's essential to remain focused on long-term financial goals.'
Bankers on Wednesday asserted that interest rates were unlikely to go up in the immediate future. They said this on the eve of a crucial meeting of state-owned bank chiefs with Finance Minister P Chidambaram, where the government is expected to signal a bias towards a soft interest rate regime.
'Future market gains will likely depend primarily on earnings growth.'
Wholesale price based inflation declined to a 3-month low of 1.89 per cent in November on cheaper food items, and experts predicted a 0.25 per cent interest rate cut by the RBI in the policy review in February. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.36 per cent in October 2024. It was 0.39 per cent in November, last year. In August, 2024, it was 1.25 per cent.
Foreign investors have adopted a cautious stance and infused Rs 7,320 crore in the Indian equities in August owing to high valuation of stocks and the unwinding of the Yen carry trade after Bank of Japan raised interest rates. This investment was way lower than Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, according to data with the depositories. While September is likely to see continued interest from FPIs, the flows would be shaped by a combination of domestic political stability, economic indicators, global interest rate movements, market valuations, sectoral preferences, and the attractiveness of the debt market, Vipul Bhowar, Director Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
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'Of the 20 trading days of January till January 28, FIIs have been selling for 19 trading days'. 'When did FIIs withdraw money with this kind of intensity?' 'It never happened. It's the first. It did not happen even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis when Lehman went under.' 'Even then you did not have like a 19-day selling spree from the FIIs.'
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Retirement fund body EPFO on Thursday lowered the interest rate on Provident Fund deposits to 8.5 per cent for the current financial year, Labour Minister Santosh Gangwar said on Thursday.
The bank will give 3.25 per cent interest on savings bank deposits with a balance exceeding Rs 100,000. At present, the interest rate is 3.5 per cent.
The recent depreciation of the rupee along with sharp fall in the country's foreign exchange (FX) reserves has sparked a debate whether stability of the exchange rate is necessary and desirable. The rupee was one of the least volatile currencies among peers for almost two years before the current downward pressure started in September after the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rate.
The central bank fears the Asian market may impact interest rate derivatives.
MMFs invest in fixed-income instruments maturing in less than one year, minimising interest-rate risk.
ICICI Bank chief K V Kamath today said interest rates in the country were "moderating" but could put pressure on the economy if they rise further.
Amid mounting inflationary pressures, escalating material costs, and rising operational expenses, luxury carmakers Mercedes-Benz India and BMW India have announced price increases of up to 3 per cent on their entire model ranges effective from January 1, 2025. Mercedes-Benz India will revise ex-showroom prices by Rs 2 lakh to Rs 9 lakh, depending on the model. This adjustment will impact vehicles such as the GLC SUV and the high-end Mercedes-Maybach S 680 limousine.
A reversal of policy at this juncture could jeopardise the recent gains on inflation
Release of key macroeconomic numbers, monthly derivatives expiry, and global cues are likely to drive stock market movement this week, according to analysts. Markets will also be reacting to remarks made by the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they said. "This week, we expect the market to witness a gradual up-move with stock-specific action.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das has been ranked as the top central banker globally for the second consecutive year by US-based Global Finance magazine. "Happy to announce that for the 2nd consecutive year, RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta has been rated 'A+', in the Global Finance Central Banker Report Cards 2024," the RBI said in a post on X.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
'Someone posts a job on LinkedIn and there are a thousand resumes in an hour? This is not the America IT professionals are used to.' 'Once they lose their job, it's impossible to get a job.'
Among the 30 Sensex firms, HCL Technologies, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, Tech Mahindra, JSW Steel, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro and Tata Consultancy Services were the biggest gainers. Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank, Maruti and Hindustan Unilever were among the laggards.
The bank said that it has retained interest rate on savings bank deposit at 3 per cent for customers with balances above Rs 100,000. Customers with SB balance up to Rs 100,000 will continue to get the rate of interest at 3.50 per cent despite cut in the repo rate by the RBI earlier this month.
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The wholesale price inflation rose to 1.84 per cent in September as food items, especially vegetables, turned costlier, as per the government data released on Monday. The wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation was 1.31 per cent in August. It was (-)0.07 per cent in September last year.
Bankers expect interest rates to remain stable in the short to medium term, as there is enough liquidity in the market.
Dalal Street had a roller coaster ride in 2024 from shattering record after record to facing heavy correction off-late but equity markets still rewarded investors with positive returns, driven by a surge in domestic fund flows and a resilient macro landscape. The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, according to Motilal Oswal Wealth Management.
The week's losses wiped out investor wealth worth Rs 18.43 trillion, with the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms now at Rs 441 trillion.
Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, NTPC, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv and Larsen & Toubro were also among the laggards. However, Power Grid, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services and ICICI Bank were among the gainers.
Bankers expect a stable interest rate this year after Finance Minister P Chidambaram promised to keep government borrowings lower than the budgeted Rs 1,00,836 crore (Rs 1008.36 billion) during 2005-06.
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