Moody's Ratings has reduced India's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 6 per cent, citing subdued private consumption, capital formation, and industrial activity due to higher energy costs and global uncertainties.
India's economy in FY26 saw significant momentum from investment demand, with gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerating to 8.2 per cent, while private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) also grew steadily, according to provisional estimates.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected a 6.9 per cent GDP growth for the current financial year, citing concerns over commodity prices and supply chain disruptions stemming from the West Asia crisis.
A new report suggests that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could significantly impact India's GDP growth and inflation.
India's economy registered a robust 7.7 per cent growth in the fiscal year 2025-26, an increase from 7.1 per cent in the previous year, with the January-March quarter alone seeing a 7.8 per cent expansion.
The IMF on Monday raised India's growth projection to 7.3 per cent for fiscal 2025-26, up 0.7 percentage point from its October forecast, on the back of better-than-expected performance of the economy. The Washington-headquartered multilateral lending agency has also revised India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast to 6.4 per cent for fiscal year 2026-27 beginning April 1, 2026, from its earlier estimate of 6.2 per cent.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.4 per cent, from 6.9 per cent, on increased consumer spending and improved sentiment boosted by GST reforms.
The Indian economy recorded a six-quarter high growth of 8.2 per cent in July-September, as factories churned out more products in anticipation of a consumption boost from the GST rate cut, according to government data.
Moody's Ratings on Wednesday said India's economic growth will exceed 6.5 per cent in the next fiscal, up from 6.3 per cent this year, on higher government capex and consumption boost from tax cuts and interest rate reduction. Projecting a stable outlook for the banking sector, Moody's said although the operating environment of Indian banks will remain favourable in the next fiscal, their asset quality will deteriorate moderately after substantial improvements in recent years, with some stress in unsecured retail loans, microfinance loans and small business loans.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6.6 per cent from an earlier 6.9 per cent, primarily attributing the change to elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. Despite this moderation, India is still expected to remain the world's fastest-growing major economy.
The OECD projects India's GDP to grow at 7.6% in the current fiscal year and 6.1% in 2026-27, despite global economic challenges stemming from the Middle East conflict and energy price volatility.
India's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward to 6.3 per cent, and despite a projected moderation, the country remains one of the fastest-growing large economies, supported by resilient consumption and government spending, the United Nations has said.
The Reserve Bank of India has marginally increased its GDP forecast for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent while slightly lowering the inflation projection to 5 per cent. The central bank noted that while domestic economic activity shows resilience, global turbulence, particularly re-escalating conflicts and volatile oil prices, continues to pose risks to the inflation outlook.
Stating that an economic recession gripped global economy following the lockdowns due to COVID-19 pandemic, Fitch Ratings on Friday said the initial disruptions to regional manufacturing supply chains in China have now broadened to include local discretionary spending and exports.
Industry lobby groups on Tuesday said the slowdown in India's GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2010-11 was mainly on account of high interest rate regime, aimed at taming inflation.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections for 2025 to 6.3 per cent, from 6.5 per cent, saying economies globally will see a slowdown on account of heightened US policy uncertainty and trade restrictions.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept its outlook for India's economic growth unchanged at 7 per cent for the current fiscal year while forecasting a weaker-than-previously expected pace for developing Asia. ADB's 7 per cent growth projection for fiscal 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023), unchanged from its September forecast, compares to 8.7 per cent GDP growth in 2021-22. For 2023-24, the GDP growth has been kept unchanged at 7.2 per cent.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's sovereign credit rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, acknowledging robust growth prospects and strong external finances. However, the agency highlighted concerns over elevated government debt, lagging structural metrics, and potential fiscal spending pressures due to rising youth unemployment.
India's digital economy is projected to constitute nearly 20 per cent of the nation's GDP by 2030, fuelled by a growth rate twice as fast as the overall economy, according to a senior government official.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday revised upward its growth estimates for the current fiscal year to 6.8 per cent and lowered its inflation projection to 2.6 per cent based on an above-normal monsoon and the rationalisation of GST rates.
Global banking major, HSBC has retained its India GDP growth forecast of 6.2 per cent in FY10 but hiked the outlook for next fiscal by 0.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent given the economic recovery.
S&P also cut China?s GDP growth forecast to 7.5%t and that of rest of Asia.
Headline growth was quite weak heading into the Covid period but averaged 6.4 per cent and 6.7 per cent in the five years between FY16 and FY20 for GVA and GDP respectively, points out Abhishek Upadhyay.
Former Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy V Subramanian outlines India's strategy to become a USD 55 trillion economy by 2047. The plan hinges on leveraging its young demographic in AI, dominating sunrise sectors like space and defence tech, attracting FDI, and achieving sustained 8% GDP growth.
'I will not be surprised if there is a 7 per cent handle in front of the decimal place for the full financial year.'
India's economy experienced a growth of 7.8 per cent during the October-December quarter of 2025-26, according to the new series of national accounts with 2022-23 as the base year.
Voicing concerns on overheating, Crisil Ratings on Monday said rising interest rates and liquidity constraints would push down India's GDP growth in the range of 7.9-8.4 per cent in 2007-08.
The US' move to raise the tariff on most Indian goods to 50 per cent could drag India's GDP growth for FY26 by 35 to 60 basis points, according to various economists. One basis point (bp) is equal to 0.01 per cent.
Base revisions are technical exercises, but history shows they can significantly reshape the narrative around India's growth performance.
S&P Global Ratings has affirmed India's sovereign credit rating at 'BBB' with a stable outlook, citing the country's dynamic and fast-growing economy, strong external balance sheet, and stable institutions that ensure policy predictability.
India's real GDP growth in FY26 will slide further to 6.2 per cent in FY26 from 6.5 per cent in FY25, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday. In a research report, Nomura said there is a "divergence" between the growth in GST collections and across other high-frequency growth indicators like auto sales and bank credit growth.
Economists highlight that resolving domestic policy bottlenecks, particularly through land reforms and improving the ease of doing business, will be critical for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'next-generation reforms' and India's economic transformation towards its 'Viksit Bharat' vision for 2047.
Domestic rating agency Icra on Wednesday said India's real GDP growth for the September quarter is likely to decline to 6.5 per cent due to heavy rains and weaker corporate performance. The agency, however, maintained its FY25 growth estimate at 7 per cent on expectations of a pick up in economic activity in the second half of the fiscal.
India's economy is likely to grow by 6.5 per cent in the current and the next financial year, an EY report said, attributing lower than anticipated expansion in the September quarter to fall in private consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation. Real GDP growth eased to a seven-quarter low of 5.4 per cent in July-September -- the second quarter of the current 2024-25 fiscal year.
Credit Suisse First Boston, a leading investment banker, has scaled down India's GDP growth from 5.7 per cent to 5.4 per cent for the financial year 2002-03.\n\n\n\n
Production growth in India's eight core infrastructure sectors slowed to a three-month low of 2.3 per cent in February, impacted by contractions in crude oil, natural gas, and refinery products output.
Analysts predict that the Indian stock market's sentiment this week will be primarily influenced by the domestic GDP data announcement, crude oil prices, and the crucial US non-farm payrolls report.
S&P Global Ratings has increased India's GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal year to 7.1 per cent, citing private consumption, investment, and exports as key drivers. However, the agency also cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East could strain India's fiscal position due to higher energy prices.
However, the World Bank has projected India's GDP growth rate at 7.5 per cent for the next three financial years, including the current one.
