Credit quality of Indian corporate is expected to be stable in the second half of the current financial year (H2FY26), supported by easing monetary cycle, and declining inflation, coupled with income-tax relief and rationalisation of the goods and service tax (GST) rates, among others.
The growth of India's services sector eased in September from the recent high in August, as new business and activity expanded at slower rates, according to a monthly survey released on Monday.
India's economic growth slowed to near two-year low of 5.4 per cent in the July-September quarter of this fiscal due to poor performance of manufacturing and mining sectors, but the country continued to remain the fastest-growing large economy, data showed on Friday. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 8.1 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2023-24 fiscal. The previous low level of GDP growth at 4.3 per cent was recorded in the third quarter (October-December 2022) of financial year 2022-23.
Whether Trump will actually press ahead with the oil sanctions remains unclear, since keeping Russian oil out of the world market risks high oil prices which could boomerang on the US economy and be damaging politically for Trump, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
For the time being, the RBI is done with the cuts. A cut in October, which many are still predicting, is not certain. Of course, if growth nosedives, the script will be different, expects Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Indication of a potential US Federal Reserve rate cut may trigger optimism in the domestic equity market, with investors' attention shifting to the looming deadline for additional US tariffs on Indian goods in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Motors jumped the most by 5.54 per cent, followed by Kotak Mahindra Bank, Trent, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, and ICICI Bank. However, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Tata Steel were among the laggards.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said the world is facing "profound imbalances" in trade and energy security, and is undergoing a structural transformation, with India standing out as a 'stabilising force' that can withstand external shocks.
India's economy is likely to grow by 6.5 per cent in the current and the next financial year, an EY report said, attributing lower than anticipated expansion in the September quarter to fall in private consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation. Real GDP growth eased to a seven-quarter low of 5.4 per cent in July-September -- the second quarter of the current 2024-25 fiscal year.
Equity markets this week would keenly track the upcoming GST Council meeting, macroeconomic data announcements and trading activity of foreign investors for further movement, analysts said. Moreover, developments related to tariff negotiations, global market trends and auto sales data would also drive investors' sentiment.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said economic activity in some sectors have picked up pace during October-November and a GDP growth of 6.5-7 per cent in the current fiscal is feasible.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the 11th time in a row but sharply lowered the GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal, as against earlier projection of 7.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the status quo on interest rate despite July-September quarter GDP growth falling to 7-quarter low of 5.4 per cent, as against its own projection of 7 per cent.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall for most parts of India during the post-monsoon season (October to December), except for some areas in the northwest. The southwest monsoon season ended with the country recording eight per cent above normal rainfall.
From mobilising protests to choosing the interim prime minister -- Discord, Bitchat became virtual control rooms, even as familiar platforms like TikTok, Reddit, Instagram, etc. played their part.
The decision to hike US H-1B visa application fee to $100,000, trade talks and the GST rate cut will be the key drivers for stock market movement this week, analysts said.
Since items in the 12% category account for only about 5% of total GST, the additional boost to consumption may not be significant, points out M Govinda Rao.
'The central bank has highlighted that the slowdown in growth has been limited to a few sectors and overall growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.'
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani on Thursday termed the second-generation GST reforms as a big booster to consumption-driven growth while his firm promised to pass on the benefit of the cut in tax rates to consumers.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from northwest India around September 15. This year's monsoon covered the country earlier than usual, resulting in surplus rainfall and extreme weather events.
Multiple tailwinds for the automobile sector, including a cut in goods and services tax (GST) rates, are keeping analysts bullish on auto stocks from a long-term perspective, even as they see the rally running its course in the near term.
India posted a current account surplus of $13.5 billion or 1.3 per cent of GDP in March quarter 2024-25 as compared with $4.6 billion in the year-ago period mainly on account of surge in services exports and higher remittances, according to RBI data released on Friday.
The fiscal deficit for FY25 has been pegged at 4.8 per cent of GDP and at 4.4 per cent for FY26, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Saturday. Presenting the Budget 2025-26, she said net market borrowings are estimated at Rs 11.54 lakh crore for next fiscal year.
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
The government is working to make India's automobile industry number one in the world within five years, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari said on Monday. Inaugurating the 'International Value Summit 2025', Gadkari said the automobile sector pays maximum GST revenue to the government and generates employment opportunities.
To those who ask, "Is all this really worth it? Why can't domestic demand fill the gap?", it is important to remind them that only 13 economies since the Second World War have grown at 7 per cent or more for 25 years -- like India needs to. They all had one thing in common: Strong export growth underpinned by strong global engagement, explains Sajjid Z Chinoy.
These changes certainly bring India's GST a lot closer to what an ideal GST would look like, points out Karan Bhasin.
The Centre's fiscal deficit stood at 17.9 per cent of the full-year target at the end of June, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Thursday. It was at 8.4 per cent of Budget Estimates (BE) of 2024-25 in the first three months of the previous financial year.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday asked India Inc to take advantage of the policies and reforms undertaken by the government and no longer hesitate to invest more and expand capacities. Sitharaman also asked the industry to partner with the government for skilling the youth and also to engage with the government throughout the year, and not just before the Budget.
'India may never fully participate in the AI hype cycle, but we can position ourselves to benefit from its inevitable disenchantment and the cycle of disillusionment,' alerts Akash Prakash.
The Ambani family, headed by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, possesses a wealth of Rs 28 lakh crore, more than double that of the Adani family at Rs 14.01 lakh crore, a report said on Tuesday. The 300 most valuable Indian families have a wealth of over $1.6 trillion (over Rs 140 lakh crore), or more than 40 per cent of the country's GDP.
'Indian markets may underperform global peers for the next two quarters.' 'But beyond that, India should catch up and resume its long-term growth path.'
'I do believe there will be a resolution in the next couple of months on the penal tariff and hopefully on the reciprocal tariff also.'
The Indian services sector growth touched a 15-year high in August, driven by a sharp rise in new orders and output, amid substantial improvement in demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index was up from 60.5 in July to 62.9 in August, indicating the steepest rate of expansion since June 2010.
The Congress party has criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi's handling of GST reforms, calling them inadequate and demanding an apology for the tax imposed on essential items. They argue that the reforms are merely a 'band-aid' solution and that the government should address the states' demand for extended compensation.
'Returning Indians can leverage their international skills and the strong funding environment for start-ups here.'
India's net revenues from the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rose at a three-month high pace of 10.7 per cent in August even as growth in gross collections slowed to 6.5 per cent from 7.5 per cent in the previous month, thanks to a nearly 20 per cent decline in refunds to taxpayers during the month.
The more things change, the more they remain the same for corporate India. In the April-June 2025 period (Q1FY26) - for the ninth consecutive quarter - listed companies witnessed only single-digit revenue growth, while their core earnings, excluding other income and one-time gains, contracted for the second time in four quarters. This comes as firms brace for the impact of 50 per cent US tariff on Indian goods.
Domestic rating agency Icra on Wednesday said India's real GDP growth for the September quarter is likely to decline to 6.5 per cent due to heavy rains and weaker corporate performance. The agency, however, maintained its FY25 growth estimate at 7 per cent on expectations of a pick up in economic activity in the second half of the fiscal.
Reliance Industries Ltd has consistently remained compliant with international sanctions and is expected to adhere to upcoming measures on Russian oil, analysts said, estimating that oil sourced from Russia contributes just 2.1 per cent to its consolidated EBITDA. Reliance operates the world's largest single location refining complex, with more than half of the capacity exclusively dedicated for exports.
India is set to become the world's fourth-largest economy in 2025, but slow income growth, lack of structural change, and rising inequality highlight the gap between progress and real transformation.
