Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
In 2025-26, the government allocated Rs 6,81,210 crore for defence budget.
Gold prices are likely to trade firm next week as traders await key economic data, including US inflation numbers, for fresh cues on interest rate outlook, while silver may remain volatile amid shifting risk sentiment and speculative activity, analysts said.
From the 30-Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics surged nearly 9 per cent post its December quarter earnings. Eternal, Bajaj Finance, Power Grid, Trent, Mahindra & Mahindra and UltraTech Cement were the other major gainers. Maruti, Sun Pharma, Infosys and Bharti Airtel were among the other laggards.
State debt is rising because revenues are disappointingly weak. Ten states have debt ratios exceeding 30 per cent. In 2023-2024, states were borrowing simply to meet day-to-day expenses, points out Debashis Basu.
The recent correction suggests that while precious metals hedge geopolitical tension and inflation, they are not immune to sharp short-term corrections and profit-booking.
'Global uncertainty is something which definitely occupies the minds of officials when we are preparing for the Budget.'
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says India and the EU are close to a 'historic trade agreement' that could create a market of two billion people and account for almost a quarter of the global GDP.
India's state-level fiscal rules have improved headline deficits, but the gains are fragile and uneven with major states still grappling with high debt levels, a World Bank report submitted to the 16th Finance Commission (FC) said. According to the report, despite nearly two decades of adoption of fiscal responsibility laws (FRLs), debt levels have not converged.
India clarified its absence from a South Africa-initiated naval wargame, stating it was not an institutional BRICS activity. The exercise involved navies from China, Russia, Iran, and others, amid rising tensions in Iran.
The core dilemma remains: Why provide further stimulus to an economy that is already booming at an 8 per cent growth rate? asks Rajeswari Sengupta.
The fiscal tilt towards capex benefits companies in investment-related sectors like capital goods, defence equipment, engineering & construction and metal & mining. The planned cut in revenue expenditure will weigh on companies in consumption sectors like FMCG, consumer durables and retail.
Interestingly, with 83 per cent of entrepreneurs being first-generation founders, the list reflects India's growing spirit of entrepreneurship and leadership.
'Only four or five original companies remain; the rest have been replaced every decade as sectors evolve or leadership shifts.' 'Companies that fail to adapt -- like many textile mills from the 1970s and shipping firms from the 1980s -- disappear.' 'Benchmark indices reward those who reinvent themselves in line with economic demands.'
India is the second-most-preferred destination among chief executive officers planning international investments - up from the fifth spot last year, according to PwC's 29th Annual Global CEO Survey released on Tuesday. The United States is their first choice.
The consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation hitting an all-time low in October would encourage the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the policy repo rate in its upcoming December 3-5 meeting. However, the July-September GDP growth, expected to be above 7 per cent, may act as a deterrent.
The BSE Smallcap index hit an over eight-month low of 47,627.96, falling 3 per cent in Tuesday's intraday trade amid selling pressure due to ongoing tariff-related concerns and rising geopolitical tensions.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday participated in a traditional 'halwa' ceremony, marking the final stage for the preparation of the Union Budget 2026-27, to be unveiled on February 1 in the Lok Sabha.
Wholesale price inflation extended upward momentum for the second straight month, recording at 0.83 per cent in December 2025, driven by an uptick in prices of food, non-food articles, and manufactured items on a month-on-month basis, government data showed on Wednesday. Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation returned to positive in December, after witnessing a deflationary trend in the previous two months.
Fund managers advise conservative investors to cap midcap exposure at 10 to 15 per cent of their equity portfolio.
'The trade deficit in some sectors is huge and that is an area of opportunity to localise.'
Like the realisation on the failure of development, we have also internalised the failure on democracy, argues Aakar Patel.
In the wake of the FTA between India and the European Union, the United States has described the Europeans as 'very disappointing', saying they were unwilling to join Washington, DC in putting tariffs on New Delhi for its purchases of Russian oil because of this trade deal.
Stock market is gearing up for an eventful week ahead where key triggers such as quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and the upcoming Union Budget for 2026-27 would grab the limelight, analysts said.
Trading pattern in the stock market this week will largely depend on the ongoing Q3 earnings announcement from corporates, global trends, and foreign fund movement, analysts said. Moreover, geopolitical developments and any update on trade negotiations would also be keenly tracked by investors, experts noted.
The 25 per cent US tariffs, plus a penalty for Russian imports, could dent India's GDP growth by 30 basis points in the current fiscal, but the higher duty is unlikely to significantly affect India's domestic demand-driven economy, Barclays said on Thursday. If the 25 per cent tariff, announced by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, is implemented from August 1, the effective average US import tariff on Indian goods will rise to 20.6 per cent in trade-weighted terms, as per Barclays estimates.
Foreign portfolio investors have started 2026 on a cautious note, extending their selling streak from last year by withdrawing Rs 7,608 crore ($846 million) from Indian equities in the first two trading sessions of January. The withdrawal of funds followed the largest outflow of Rs 1.66 lakh crore ($18.9 billion) recorded in 2025, triggered by volatile currency movements, global trade tensions and concerns over potential US tariffs, and stretched market valuations.
Asia takes the lead, boasting four Indian cities on the list, according to the 2024 Savills Growth Hubs Index.
'Instead of one or two families controlling 10% to 15% of GDP, it has to be broad based. Then, the resilience of the economy also will be higher.' 'Then, if something happens to one business, it will not hurt the economy badly.'
In a world fractured by uncertainty, India stands out for its policy consistency, paired with sustained ambition, points out Pritam Banerjee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday delivered a 25 basis point (bps) repo rate cut analysts expected, driven by the strong 8.2 per cent GDP growth in the September quarter. However, analysts do not expect a runaway market rally as the impact of US tariffs continues.
Sustaining 8 per cent-plus growth rates is necessary if we are to reach high-income status by 2047, points out Amitabh Kant.
Stock markets are likely to trade in a range-bound manner in a holiday-shortened week where trading activity of foreign investors, currency movement and global macroeconomic data announcements are expected to drive sentiments, analysts said. Several global markets may see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays, an expert said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday announced the signing of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA), saying it accounts for 25 per cent of global GDP and one-third of global trade.
Investment proposals for around Rs 1.88 trillion through 35 major agreements, spread across deep tech, green energy, and aerospace, were the hallmark moment of the first day of the two-day "Telangana Rising Global Summit", which started on Monday.
India and the European Union are set to announce on January 27 the conclusion of negotiations and finalisation of a free trade agreement, which is aimed at boosting economic ties between the two regions amid disruptions in global trade due to US tariffs, an official said.
India's real GDP growth in FY26 will slide further to 6.2 per cent in FY26 from 6.5 per cent in FY25, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday. In a research report, Nomura said there is a "divergence" between the growth in GST collections and across other high-frequency growth indicators like auto sales and bank credit growth.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its Financial Stability Report (FSR), cautioned that stress tests indicate two scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) may have to dip into their capital conservation buffers (CCBs), unless stakeholders infuse capital, under a scenario involving a gradual slowdown in domestic GDP growth and a moderate rise in inflation, with limited policy easing space available to the central bank.
India's services sector growth moderated in December, as the rates of expansion in incoming new work and output eased to the slowest in 11 months, and companies refrained from recruiting additional staff, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from 59.8 in November to 58.0 in December, indicating the slowest rate of expansion since January.
