Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
India's retail inflation, which has stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent target in recent times, is likely to remain benign in the coming months, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said in a speech, on Friday, which was uploaded on the central bank's website on Tuesday. Headline inflation dipped to multi-year lows of around 1.5-2.8 per cent in late 2025.
Opposition MPs in the Rajya Sabha criticised the Modi government's economic policies, citing the LPG crisis, lack of energy security, and concerns over the Economic Stabilisation Fund.
Remittances from West Asia in March rose sharply amid the conflict in the region, with industry insiders estimating inflows to be 20-30 per cent higher than what is usual in a month.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday revised upward its growth estimates for the current fiscal year to 6.8 per cent and lowered its inflation projection to 2.6 per cent based on an above-normal monsoon and the rationalisation of GST rates.
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for current fiscal year, from 6.5 per cent earlier, citing strong June quarter growth and domestic consumption-led demand.
'After the Galwan clash, the rules of engagement changed with the army commanders allowed to use any means at their disposal as they deem fit for tactical operations.'
Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday warned that India's limited crude oil reserves of about 100 million barrels - sufficient for only 40-45 days of consumption - leave the country particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war in West Asia.
The aggregate net worth of the country's 176 dollar billionaires dropped to $984.2 billion during 2025, down from a record $1,036.2 billion at the end of December 2024.
Of the donations, 48% is in kind -- such as food, clothing, or other household goods -- followed by cash (44%) and volunteering (30%) with non-profits, religious institutions, or community groups.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the key policy rates will remain at low levels for a long period and may go down even further.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
The idea of back-loading the target of fiscal consolidation is perhaps guided by the government's desire to be prepared for any adverse developments in the coming year, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The Union Budget for 2026-27, presented by Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday, which was a first, had an excellent domestic macro backdrop. According to the first advance estimates, gross domestic product (GDP) in constant prices is projected to grow 7.4 per cent in the current financial year, against 6.5 per cent in 2024-25.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
The Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM) is advocating for the termination of the moratorium on customs duties for electronically transmitted digital products, arguing that it hinders self-reliance, causes revenue losses, and restricts India's ability to tax emerging technologies like AI.
Deloitte India on Thursday projected India's economy to grow 6.7-6.9 per cent in the current fiscal amid buoyant demand and policy reforms. Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal.
The Indian rupee crashed to a record closing low against the US dollar due to rising global crude oil prices, a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Gold prices are expected to remain volatile next week as investors track geopolitical developments in the Middle East and key macroeconomic data releases that could shape the sentiment in the domestic market, analysts said.
India is on track to exceed the $4 trillion milestone in 2025-26 (FY26), surpassing the $3.9 trillion gross domestic product (GDP) mark recorded at the end of March 2025, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
Indian economy grew by 7.8 per cent in April-June -- the highest in five quarters -- before the disruptive US tariffs were imposed.
When it comes to raising funds, women entrepreneurs receive a disproportionately small share.
'The real risk is not that AI will fail to transform India's economy.'
'The risk is that it already is -- while our measurement systems continue to look the other way,' observes Nishant Sahdev, a theoretical physicist at the University of North Carolina.
The finance minister said that consolidation of state-owned banks could proceed at any time without waiting for the recommendations of the proposed high-level committee on banking.
India has managed high government debt-to-GDP, a slowing domestic revenue engine, lower household savings and a more hostile geopolitical environment separately in the past. But together, they threaten to undo the growth narrative on which today's optimism rests, warns Debashis Basu.
'If you go by the capital expenditure, this is a good defence budget. But we will have to see if the government can keep defence spending at 2 per cent or higher in 2027-2028.'
'We believe the truth is in the middle, and that India is at an important crossroads.'
Highlights of the Economic Survey 2025-26
Indian equity markets experienced a volatile trading day, with the Sensex and Nifty closing almost flat. Market sentiment was influenced by global cues, US-Iran talks, and profit-booking activities.
India's services sector experienced a slight moderation in growth during February, according to the HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index, with new order growth slowing and inflation picking up.
Sensex and Nifty post steepest weekly loss in over a year, falling nearly 3 per cent.
Benchmark lending rates unchanged with repo rate at 5.25%
Budget 2026 is an intentional and ambitious one - From manufacturing growth to services supremacy, from technology consumption to AI-powered transformation. This is the blueprint for a $7 trillion economy built on intelligence, not just scale.
Union Minister JP Nadda accuses the West Bengal government of sheltering infiltrators, leading to demographic changes and hindering development.
After a 25 basis point rate cut in December, the RBI on Friday decided to pause on the policy rate front amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 22,615 crore into Indian equities in February, marking the highest monthly inflow in 17 months, driven by factors such as the interim India-US trade deal, correction in domestic market valuations, and strong corporate earnings.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
