Against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) projection of 7.1 per cent, India's first quarter (Q1) 2024-25 (FY25) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.7 per cent. This is in line with market expectations and significantly lower than the 7.8 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2023-24 (FY24) and 8.2 per cent in Q1FY24. The quarter witnessed decreased government consumption and investment spending due to the parliamentary election.
Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
The stock of mall developer and commercial real estate major, The Phoenix Mills (Phoenix), is up 26 per cent since its business update in the third week of January. The gains came on strong December quarter performance and the consumption boost in the Budget which is expected to help the company sustain its growth trends.
However, the meeting of the company's board of directors, through video conferencing, started at 1.30 pm and ended only at 11.50 pm on Tuesday, according to a filing made to BSE at 12.51 am on Wednesday. In the 2024 December quarter, the airline, which had been facing multiple headwinds, raised Rs 3,000 crore from qualified institutional investors.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) caution on inflation, highlighted during the recent monetary policy meeting, may put investors' faith in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks to test, analysts said. They, however, believe FMCG stocks may ride through this near-term investor anxiety as related companies are, typically, well-equipped to handle inflation due to their pricing power and steady demand for essential goods.
The GDP growth is expected to be about 6.3 per cent in the current fiscal year, a tad lower than the government's estimate of 6.4 per cent, owing to several factors such as weak demand, SBI research report said on Wednesday. According to the first advance estimates (FAE) of National Income for 2024-25 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), released on Tuesday, India's economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in 2024-25, because of poor showing by the manufacturing and subdued investments.
News reports that GE Aerospace has delivered the first of 99 F404-IN20 engines ordered by Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) for the Tejas Mk-1A has revived interest in the HAL stock.
IT services major Infosys on Thursday reported 11.46 per cent increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 6,806 crore for December quarter FY25 and raised its guidance on the back of growth in financial services and manufacturing. The company had logged a profit of Rs 6,106 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.
The Indian rupee depreciated a modest 2.9 per cent in the first nine months of the current fiscal, performing better than other currencies like the Canadian Dollar, South Korean Won and the Brazilian Real, according to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament on Friday. The value of the Indian Rupee (INR) is market-determined, with no target or specific level or band.
HDFC Bank on Wednesday reported a 2.3 per cent year-on-year rise in its consolidated net profit to Rs 17,657 crore for the October-December quarter, restricted by slower loan growth. On a standalone basis, the largest private sector lender's net profit came at Rs 16,735.50 crore for the period, up from Rs 16,372.54 crore in the year-ago period, but marginally down from the preceding quarter's Rs 16,820.97 crore.
Whether the ambitious targets are achievable is a moot question as India's earlier target was 20,000 MW of nuclear power by 2020.
The market responded positively to the Q1 results of oil marketing companies (OMCs), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) despite numbers being weaker than consensus. BPCL's reported gross refining margin (GRM) was in line at $7.9 per barrel (bbl) in Q1FY25, which implies marketing margin stood at Rs 4.8 per litre. Standalone profit after tax or PAT at Rs 3,000 crore was down versus consensus due to under-recoveries in LPG business.
India's electric vehicle (EV) industry hit a new milestone in 2024, with sales surging 26.5 per cent year-on-year to 1.94 million units as of December 29, according to Vahan data from the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH).
After Chennai, it is Coimbatore, Madurai, and Tiruchirappalli, that are emerging as manufacturing hubs. Coimbatore is India's top Tier-II city in terms of the number of GCCs, according to a report by Cushman & Wakefield.
Exports to eight out of India's top 10 destinations, including the Netherlands, the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK), witnessed positive growth during the first six months of FY25, despite muted global demand amid geopolitical challenges, commerce department data showed.
The mutual fund industry's QAAUM (Quarterly Average Assets Under Management) was up 37 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) (9 per cent Q-o-Q) to hit Rs 59 trillion (end Q1FY25). The equity segment grew 55 per cent Y-o-Y and equity formed 56 per cent of total AUM, up 49 per cent in Q1FY24. Sequentially, AUM grew by Rs 5 trillion.
The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance's (Chola) share has yielded one of the best returns in the last month. The company has sustained assets under management (AUM) growth at 7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), and 35 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q1FY25. Scaling up of new businesses now contributes to 13 per cent of loans (vs 10 per cent in Q1FY24).
After lagging behind benchmarks and broader indices over the past five years, real estate investment trusts (Reits) have outperformed them since the start of 2024. The four listed Reits have posted an average return of 16 per cent year-to-date, compared to 9.9 per cent for the S&P BSE Sensex and 11 per cent for the National Stock Exchange Nifty.
India's smartphone exports have set a new benchmark, surging past the $2 billion mark in October - the highest monthly total ever recorded. This milestone, according to estimates from the Indian Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA), an industry body representing both global and domestic mobile device manufacturers, underscores the country's growing prominence in global mobile supply chains.
The filing of Swiggy's DRHP has led to direct comparisons with Zomato, which is a direct competitor in food delivery and the fast-growing quick-commerce segment where Blinkit (owned by Zomato) faces off against Instamart (and Zepto). In Q-commerce, Flipkart, Amazon, Reliance and Big Basket are all entering the space. All of them have deep pockets, hence competitive intensity will rise going forward.
In Debasish Panda's last board meeting as chairperson of the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai), the regulator approved the "R2" licence for Kamlesh Goyal and Prem Watsa-backed Value Attics Reinsurance, making it the first private-sector Indian reinsurer after GIC Re, the public-sector reinsurer. "The authority reviewed and approved the R2 application of Value Attics Reinsurance, making it the first private-sector reinsurer after GIC Re, the public-sector reinsurer.
The Centre's fiscal deficit touched 74.5 per cent of the annual target at the end of January 2025, according to the data released by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Friday.
'Our AI strategy -- AI in Everything, Everything for AI, and AI for Everyone -- is now in action.'
Escalating trade tensions amid a tariff war after Donald Trump took over as President of the United States (US) could adversely impact global growth and fuel inflation, an article on the "State of the Economy" in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monthly bulletin said.
Despite gross domestic product (GDP) growth being lower-than-expected for the July-September quarter, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not cut the policy repo rate in the review meeting scheduled for next week due to high inflation in October, according to experts. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation breaching the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band in October (6.2 per cent year-on-year) is not a favourable backdrop for the MPC to commence the easing cycle, even as the growth outcome disappointed the MPC's expectations," said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays, who expects the policy repo rate to be kept unchanged in the December meeting.
The RBI under new Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday cut interest rate for the first time in nearly five years as the central bank pivoted the policy stance to support a shuttering economy. The 25 basis points rate cut to 6.25 per cent comes after last rate reduction in May 2020. The last revision of rates happened in February 2023 when the policy rate was hiked by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent.
There has been a sharp slowdown in revenue and profit growth in the cement sector in recent quarters but it is yet to show in the share prices of cement companies. On the contrary, there has been a rally in cement stocks and a re-rating of their equity valuation in the past three years despite an earnings contraction during the period.
Concerns have been raised over Marico's exposure to Bangladesh in the wake of turmoil in that country. However, the management reiterated expectations of growing domestic business at double digits and maintaining international growth. Marico scaled up its food business by 4 times between FY20-24 and aims to double it again in the next three financial years.
India has set an ambitious target of textile exports worth $100 billion by 2030, but the recent data released by the Ministry of Textiles pertaining to India's textile and apparel trade puts achievement of the goal in jeopardy.
Bharti Airtel is expected to see its highest revenue growth, and subscriber addition during the third quarter (October-December) of FY25 among telcos, said analysts. The telco's top line in Q3 may see the fastest sequential growth at 5 per cent compared to 3 per cent for Reliance Jio and Vodafone Idea (Vi). Airtel's annual mobile revenue growth would rise to 16 per cent, IIFL Capital said in an analyst note.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
State Bank of India (SBI) is planning to recruit over 15,000 people in 2024-25, increasing the strength of those in the field for marketing. The recruits will be also for deployment in the bank's operations subsidiary and expanding the branch network. The operations subsidiary - State Bank Operations Support Services - became functional last year.
'The Budget must be pro-growth, focusing on infrastructure creation while also managing the fiscal deficit.'
The Centre may overshoot the Rs 56,260 crore target for dividend receipts from central public-sector enterprises (CPSEs) set for FY25 and is likely to end up getting around Rs 65,000 crore this financial year, according to a senior government official. This excludes dividend from nationalised banks and financial institutions. As on October 21, the Centre collected Rs 28,913 crore as dividend and other investment from CPSEs, accounting for over 50 per cent of the Budget Estimate for FY25.
The news of Dixon Technologies (India)'s tie-up with HP in addition to its existing Lenovo and Acer partnerships has led to a 5 per cent stock uptick since the start of the week. Dixon can target roughly 60 per cent of India's addressable IT hardware market with these contracts. Dixon targets Rs 48,000 crore in revenue from IT hardware under the PLI scheme over the next six years.
Indian economy to grow at 6.3-6.8 pc in FY26, against 6.4 pc in FY25
Whether nominal or real, India's investment rate needs to increase by 3 to 4 percentage points of GDP to support 8 per cent real growth, recommends Nikhil Gupta.
In FY24 alone, 1.34 million fraud cases were reported, amounting to losses of Rs 1,087 crore.
The hospitality industry has around 212,000 rooms, with an industry size of about Rs 82,000 crore. The industry could grow at an annual rate of 10.5 per cent for the next three financial years, despite a quiet Q1FY25. The demand will be driven by domestic travellers, who will contribute roughly 50 per cent of the growth, while foreign tourists will account for 30 per cent.
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