Fitch Ratings has warned that India's oil marketing companies (OMCs) could face significant credit pressure if crude oil prices remain elevated, leading to eroded earnings and increased working capital needs due to delayed fuel price pass-through.
Global oil prices fell on Thursday to their lowest levels since before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, offering a significant economic tailwind for India, the world's third-largest crude importer, by easing inflation risks, reducing the import bill and improving the government's fiscal position.
The Indian government has restricted industrial, commercial, and institutional users from purchasing petrol and diesel from retail petrol pumps, directing them to bulk sale points instead. This move, which can last up to 90 days, aims to address abnormal demand growth and prevent localised shortages caused by a significant price difference between retail and bulk fuel prices.
The Indian government has issued a stern warning to industrial users who are reportedly procuring cheaper retail fuel instead of industrial-grade fuel, leading to significant losses for state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) and potential local shortages. This diversion, driven by a substantial price difference between retail and bulk diesel, is adversely impacting OMCs, which are absorbing daily losses of approximately 550 crore to keep retail prices stable.
India's total automobile retail sales recorded a significant 9.55 per cent year-on-year growth in May, reaching an all-time high of 25,31,067 units, driven by strong performances in three-wheelers, passenger vehicles, and tractors, despite prevailing heatwave conditions and fuel price pressures.
Domestic cooking gas (LPG) prices have increased by Rs 29 per cylinder, marking the second hike in three months due to rising global energy costs. This follows broader fuel price increases for petrol, diesel, and CNG, with state-owned retailers still incurring significant losses despite the revisions.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Monday launched a scathing attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the latest fuel hike, saying mehangai manav has struck again and he has just one job of making promises during elections and attacking people's pockets at other times.
Oil-marketing companies (OMCs) are set to significantly expand the sale of flex fuel (E85) across India, with plans to reach 5,000 outlets in major cities by the end of next year, according to Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. This move aims to boost ethanol demand, reduce crude oil imports, and cut carbon emissions, coinciding with the launch of India's first flex-fuel vehicles by Maruti Suzuki and Hero MotoCorp.
Flex fuel motorcycles can deliver "3 per cent higher torque and 7 per cent higher peak power".
The government will lift restrictions on the sale of petrol and diesel to commercial and industrial consumers from July 1, easing emergency measures imposed to manage fuel supplies.
Petrol price has been increased by 87 paise in Delhi from Rs 98.64 to Rs 99.51 per litre. Diesel rates have gone up by 91 paise from Rs 91.58 to Rs 92.49.
Fuel prices have risen by about Rs 7.5 per litre since May 15, as global crude oil prices surged due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia and supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased by Rs 3 per litre each, marking the first rate hike in over four years. This decision follows a period of stable prices during recent state elections, despite rising global crude oil prices and significant losses for fuel retailers.
India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation surged to 9.68 per cent in May, up from 8.26 per cent in April, primarily due to significant increases in the prices of fuel and power, manufactured goods, and food items.
India's retail inflation marginally increased to 3.4 per cent in March, up from 3.21 per cent in February, primarily due to an uptick in certain food items and the initial impact of the West Asia crisis on fuel prices, according to government data.
The government has dismissed speculation of an imminent increase in petrol and diesel prices, assuring citizens that there are no plans for a hike despite rising crude oil costs.
The Reserve Bank of India has increased its retail inflation projection for 2026-27 to 5.1 per cent, up from an earlier estimate of 4.6 per cent. This revision is primarily attributed to mounting input costs, driven by the pass-through of higher global energy prices to domestic petrol and diesel rates, which have seen significant increases since May.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have seen their fourth increase in less than two weeks, pushing cumulative hikes to nearly Rs 7.5 per litre since May 15, reaching their highest levels since May 2022. This surge, driven by global crude oil costs and the Iran conflict, is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures and raise transportation costs across the economy.
The Indian government has reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel to mitigate the impact of rising global crude prices, triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This move aims to provide relief to consumers and oil companies amidst volatile international oil markets.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased for the second time in a week, following a long freeze on revisions. The increase comes as global crude prices surge and state-run oil firms look to recoup losses.
'PM Modi is trying to reduce the volume of fuel consumed instead of raising prices sharply.'
India has significantly reduced Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices for international airlines by 27% due to easing global fuel benchmarks, while simultaneously increasing commercial LPG and 5-kg cylinder prices to record highs.
Petrol and diesel prices have been increased by Rs 3 per litre each, marking the first hike in over four years, as state-run fuel retailers pass on some of the impact from surging global crude prices, which have been exacerbated by the Iran war.
"There is a sharp jump that we have seen in bookings of EVs... The jump, at least in our case, in just two months, it is about 2 to 2.5 times of what it used to be"
India possesses two months of fuel stockpiles and faces no supply concerns despite global energy disruptions, according to Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. However, state-run fuel retailers are incurring losses of up to Rs 1 lakh crore in a single quarter due to elevated crude prices and unchanged retail fuel prices, raising questions about the sustainability of these losses.
Kerala is facing increased inflationary pressure due to recent hikes in petrol and diesel prices, according to Chief Minister V D Satheesan. The state's economy is also impacted by the decline in remittances from the Gulf and higher oil prices.
Private bus operators in Sri Lanka warn of potential service disruptions and a nationwide strike due to significant fuel price increases, impacting public transport and raising concerns about inflation.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, is expected to significantly ease India's crude oil supply risks, lower freight costs, and reduce inflationary pressures, as global oil prices have already dropped.
State-run Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) plans a significant capital expenditure of 25,000 crore for the financial year 2026-27, primarily for ongoing expansion projects. The company also stated that the recent 4-per-litre price hike in petrol and diesel has provided some financial relief amidst volatile crude oil prices and mounting losses.
India's consumption stocks, which have outperformed the broader market, are now facing significant pressure due to a gradual rise in fuel prices and the potential for higher inflation. Analysts warn that companies may be forced to pass on increased input costs to consumers, potentially hurting demand across both staples and discretionary categories, with a looming threat of deficient monsoon rainfall further exacerbating inflationary concerns.
Nayara Energy, a private fuel retailer in India, has increased petrol and diesel prices following a surge in global oil prices due to Middle East tensions. This move contrasts with state-owned retailers who continue to freeze prices.
Indian oil marketing companies are incurring significant losses, selling petrol at a Rs 14 per litre loss and diesel at Rs 18 per litre, as elevated global crude oil prices, exacerbated by the West Asia crisis, outpace capped retail fuel rates, according to rating agency Icra.
Major life insurers in India reported close to double-digit growth in the value of new business (VNB) last financial year, primarily driven by increased sales of high-margin protection and non-participating (non-par) products.
The Essar group has also closed down 275 outlets across the country. The two companies could not withstand 'unfair competition' from government-backed companies which are compensated for selling fuel at subsidised rates.
Government sources indicate a potential increase in petrol and diesel prices due to rising global crude oil costs and losses incurred from a prolonged freeze on retail rates.
Despite international crude oil rates crossing USD 100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions, the Indian government plans to maintain current petrol and diesel prices, ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply across the country.
RBML - the joint venture of Reliance Industries Ltd and supermajor BP - has told the government that fuel retailing for the private sector in India has become unsustainable after market-controlling public sector firms frequently froze petrol and diesel prices at rates way below the cost, sources said. Despite a surge in oil prices, state-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) first froze petrol and diesel rates for a record 137 days beginning early November 2021 when five states including Uttar Pradesh went to the polls, and last month again went into a hiatus that is now 47 days old. "They (Reliance BP Mobility Ltd) has written to the petroleum ministry over the fuel pricing issue," a highly placed source in the government, who didn't want to be quoted, told reporters.
Reliance Industries is expected to report largely flat performance for its fourth quarter (January-March, Q4) of FY26, with weakness in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business and muted retail growth likely to offset steady gains in the telecommunications segment.
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 3.48 per cent in April, up from 3.40 per cent in March, primarily due to a surge in prices of gold and silver jewellery, as well as certain kitchen staples like tomatoes and cauliflower.
'There is no shortage of fuel whatsoever.' 'India is stock surplus as far as petrol and diesel are concerned.'
