Under its new chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has gravitated towards greater transparency and ease of doing business, setting an objective of "effective and optimum" regulation. On Monday, during its first board meeting under Pandey, the regulator has decided to constitute a high-level committee (HLC) to review conflicts of interest and unveiled initiatives to simplify regulatory processes.
A combination of strong earnings and economic growth, and hopes of the Federal Reserve ending the rate-hike cycle have pushed gross buying of Indian equities by foreign portfolio investors (IPO) to a new high. In 2023, FPIs have been gross buyers of shares worth Rs 25.5 trillion, the highest ever in a calendar year. FPIs also sold shares worth Rs 23.9 trillion. On a net basis, they were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1.6 trillion, the highest since 2020.
Shares worth over Rs 50,000 crore (or approximately $6 billion) are set to become freely tradable between now and April 10. Historically, such substantial volumes have been absorbed by a buoyant block-deal market.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 14,790 crore ($1.8 billion) from financial stocks in the first half of August, driven by global risk aversion sparked by US recession fears. Additional factors contributing to the decline in banking stocks included subdued earnings growth in the June quarter, concerns about slowing deposit growth, and stricter liquidity norms imposed by the Reserve Bank of India.
Domestic investors are tightening their grip on the ownership of listed companies. The gap between the shareholding of domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) narrowed to 13.11 percentage points at the end of the September 2023 quarter. At the peak, the gap was nearly 50 percentage points in March 2015, according to an analysis by Prime Database, a leading provider of data on the capital market.
Foreign investors have continued selling in the Indian market, pulling out a massive Rs 85,790 crore (around $10.2 billion) from equities this month due to Chinese stimulus measures, attractive stock valuations, and the elevated pricing of domestic equities. October is turning into the worst-ever month in terms of foreign fund outflows. In March 2020, FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities.
Mutual funds (MFs) have stepped up equity purchases after staying on the fence for over two months. Their net equity investments reached a four-month high of Rs 7,700 crore in July, rising for the fourth consecutive month after withdrawing a net of Rs 5,100 crore in April 2023. This trend continued in August, with net investments of Rs 3,400 crore in the first three trading sessions, according to data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India.
Seasoned bureaucrat and a stickler for rules Finance Secretary Tuhin Kanta Pandey will be at the helm of capital market regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), for three years. The 1987-batch Odisha-cadre Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer, Pandey, would replace Madhabi Puri Buch, whose three-year term ends on Friday.
Equity benchmark indices are facing massive corrections, with the NSE Nifty declining over 14 per cent from its lifetime high hit in September last year due to several negative triggers like stretched valuations, foreign fund exodus, disappointing quarterly earnings and rising global trade tensions dragging markets lower. The BSE benchmark Sensex hit its record peak of 85,978.25 on September 27 last year, and the Nifty also reached a lifetime high of 26,277.35 on the same day.
Equities in India saw record FPI inflows of $16.8 billion in November and December, taking the benchmark indices to new highs.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continues unabated, as they withdrew Rs 64,156 crore ($7.44 billion) this month so far on depreciation of the rupee, rise in the US bond yields and expectation of a tepid earning season. This came after an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continued unabated, as they withdrew over Rs 7,300 crore (about $840 million) in the first week of this month due to global trade tensions, with the US imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China. This came following an outflow of Rs 78,027 crore in the entire January. Before that, they invested Rs 15,446 crore in December, data with the depositories showed.
After declining for three consecutive quarters, the value of FPI investment in Indian equities rose 8 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $566 billion in the July-September period, according to a Morningstar report on Wednesday. A fast-changing global macroeconomic landscape, sentiments and opportunities that the Indian equity markets have to offer impacted the direction of flows by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs). Through the quarter, the value of the FPI holdings in domestic equities surged by 8 per cent to $566 billion from $523 billion recorded in the previous quarter.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 44,396 crore from Indian equities this month, driven by strength of the dollar, rising bond yields in the US, and expectations of a weak earnings season. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the month of December, data with the depositories showed.
Equity investors will track the trading activity of foreign investors, global trends and ongoing earnings results for further cues, and benchmark indices may continue to witness consolidation in a holiday-shortened week amid the monthly derivatives expiry, analysts said. Markets fell sharply last week amid massive foreign capital outflows and dismal Q2 earnings so far. Weakness in the markets might continue in the near term amid cautiousness among investors ahead of the US presidential election early next month, an expert said.
The last time this happened was in 1996.
A special court in Mumbai has directed the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) to register a first information report (FIR) against former Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch and five other officials in connection with alleged stock market fraud and regulatory violations.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
India's stock markets are experiencing a shift in investor sentiment, with a 30 per cent surge in Chinese stocks, prompting investors to move money from domestic markets to China. This reversal of fortunes is a notable change from the past three years, where China's losses benefited India.
The new proposal comes close on the heels of six measures introduced by Sebi to curb frenzy in index derivatives.
Deteriorating ties between India and Canada could have a bearing on flows into the domestic capital markets. At present, Canada is the seventh largest country for foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows into India. According to the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL), the assets under custody (AUC) of FPIs domiciled in Canada stood at nearly Rs 1.8 trillion ($21 billion) at the end of August. Almost 85 per cent of these investments are in listed equity, while the remaining in debt and hybrid instruments.
'The market's sharp decline recently has shaken the confidence of retail investors, leading to increased selling.'
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, withdrawing shares worth Rs 58,711 crore in the month so far owing to escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the strong performance of the Chinese market. The outflow came following a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities, after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
'Stay disciplined, and remain invested.' 'Volatile times are the best to invest in structural opportunities at the right price.'
Net flows from domestic institutional investors crossed Rs 5 trillion for the first time during a calendar year.
Fifteen companies have launched their initial public offerings (IPOs) in December 2024, making it the best month for public offerings since 1996. Collectively, they have raised Rs 25,425 crore, which also made December the best month in terms of the quantum of funds raised. In December 1996, 33 companies had raised Rs 931 crore.
The exodus of foreign investments from Indian equity markets continued unabated, with FPIs pulling out nearly Rs 20,000 crore in the last five trading sessions on higher valuations of domestic stocks and shifting their allocation to China. As a result, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net sellers in the equity market, with total outflows reaching Rs 13,401 crore for 2024 so far. Going ahead, the FPI selling trend is likely to continue in the near term till data indicate the piossibility of a trend reversal.
Other measures being considered include relatively stringent KYC norms and a separate standard operating procedure for approval, renewal, and fresh investment from India's neighbouring countries.
The value of foreign portfolio investors' (FPI) holdings in domestic equities reached $654 billion in three months ended December 2021, a drop of nearly 2 per cent from the preceding quarter, according to a Morningstar report. This was largely on the back of a massive sell-off by foreign investors and a correction in the Indian equity markets, especially in the large and mid-cap sectors. "At the end of the quarter ended December 2021, the value of FPI investments in Indian equities fell to $654 billion, which was lower than $667 billion recorded in the previous quarter, a fall of around 2 per cent," the report noted.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
Illustration: Uttam Ghosh/Rediff.com After a brief respite at the year's start, FPIs have dumped shares worth more than $5.7 billion (Rs 42,596 crore), taking the cumulative net outflows since October to $10.5 billion (Rs 78,466 crore), and adding to the volatility on the bourses. The figure would have been a lot worse had it not been for net purchases to the tune of $5.7 billion in the primary market from October to date.
Front-running is a fraudulent practice where traders exploit advance knowledge of large client orders for personal profit.
Foreign investors continued their relentless selling in the Indian equity markets in August, offloading shares worth Rs 21,201 crore due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, recession fears in the US and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. This came after an inflow of Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, data with the depositories showed.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has notified stricter timelines of just seven working days for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to disclose vital information. This could include informing their custodians about any false or misleading information about the fund or disclosing any change in structure or common ownership, or control of the investor group. The new changes have been brought into effect from March 14 through a notification amending the Sebi (FPIs) Regulations.
Around Rs 1 trillion, or a fifth of the investments made by alternative investment funds (AIFs) are questionable in terms of the intent behind the investments and are under the scanner for circumvention of regulations, said Ananth Narayan, whole-time member of Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). AIFs are pooled investment vehicles that invest in a variety of assets including real estate, startups, unlisted companies, and derivative strategies in the listed space.
Mutual funds (MFs) reinforced their record monthly inflows in October with an investment of Rs 87,000 crore (up to October 29), softening the downside pressure on domestic markets. Their prior record for monthly inflows was Rs 48,139 crore in May. This unprecedented monthly buying partially countered record monthly sales by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) of Rs 1.1 trillion last month.
The group, headed by former RBI deputy governor H R Khan, has also pitched for liberalised investment cap, review of prohibited sectors for foreign investment for FPIs, permitting FPIs for off-market transactions and review of restriction on sovereign wealth funds for investment in corporate debt securities.
After two months of net outflow, foreign investors turned buyers in June, infusing Rs 26,565 crore in Indian equities, driven by political stability and a sharp rebound in markets. Looking ahead, attention will gradually shift towards the budget and Q1 FY25 earnings, which could determine the sustainability of FPI flows, Vipul Bhowar, Director, Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
Banking and financial stocks got more than their fair share of foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows in February. Overseas investors pumped in $3.56 billion into domestic equities last month. Of this $1.96 billion went into financial stocks, data analysed by Edelweiss shows. "The sector now has 34.8 per cent of FPI assets, up from 33.8 per cent in January.
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