Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 22,420 crore from the Indian equity market so far this month, owing to high domestic stock valuations, increasing allocations to China, and the rising US dollar as well as Treasury yields. With this sell-off, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have recorded a total outflow of Rs 15,827 crore in 2024 so far. As liquidity tightens, FPI inflows are expected to remain subdued in the short term.
Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
Falling for the fifth day in a row on Monday, equity benchmark BSE Sensex tumbled over 1 per cent to drop below the crucial 75,000 level, tracking a US market trend and unabated foreign fund outflows amid concerns over US tariffs. The 30-share BSE benchmark tanked 856.65 points or 1.14 per cent to settle at 74,454.41. During the day, it plummeted 923.62 points or 1.22 per cent to 74,387.44.
The markets need not tank every time the rupee depreciates sustainably over months.
US-based Citigroup is likely to allocate more global roles to India than to any other centre it operates in due to the country's strong talent pool, said Jane Fraser, chief executive officer of Citigroup, on Wednesday in an interaction with CNBC-TV18. Fraser also expressed confidence that India will remain the world's fastest-growing economy.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 26,533 crore from the Indian equity market this month so far owing to increasing allocations to China, concerns over muted corporate earnings and elevated valuation of domestic stocks. While the sell-off continues, the quantum of net outflows has significantly reduced compared to October, when Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) withdrew Rs 94,017 crore ($11.2 billion) on a net basis.
Global funds have pulled out Rs 1.54 trillion from domestic stocks in fiscal 2024 - 25 (FY25), the highest-ever outflow recorded so far, according to the data compiled by Business Standard. The last time the global funds exited Indian shores in droves was back in 2022, when they sold a net Rs 1.41 in the backdrop of Covid-19.
Global fund managers witnessed one of their largest-ever declines in assets under custody (AUC) during the ongoing correction in the Indian markets, as stocks came under pressure from foreign outflows and the weakening rupee.
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
From Sensex shares, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, ITC, Power Grid, NTPC and Reliance Industries were the major laggards. Among the gainers, Bajaj Finance jumped over 5 per cent. Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel and Maruti also ended higher.
US President Donald Trump has said that the newly proposed 'gold card' initiative will allow American companies to hire Indian graduates from top US universities like Harvard and Stanford. Trump on Wednesday unveiled the 'gold card' initiative for wealthy foreigners, giving them the right to live and work in the country and offering a path to citizenship in exchange for a $5 million fee.
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
Shares reserved for Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIB), including banks and mutual funds in the LIC's public offer were subscribed fully on Monday morning, taking the overall subscription of the issue to a little over 2 times. Against 3,95,31,236 reserved, 4,61,62,185 bids were received, reflecting a subscription of 1.17 times, according to data posted on stock exchanges at 12:12 pm. Non institutional investors' portion was subscribed 1.38 times.
Equity markets will take cues from the US tariff related developments, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors this week, analysts said.
Fifteen companies have launched their initial public offerings (IPOs) in December 2024, making it the best month for public offerings since 1996. Collectively, they have raised Rs 25,425 crore, which also made December the best month in terms of the quantum of funds raised. In December 1996, 33 companies had raised Rs 931 crore.
Investors' wealth tumbled by Rs 9 lakh crore on Friday, in tandem with a sharp decline in the domestic equity market, where the benchmark Sensex plunged 1,414 points following a bearish trend in global equities. Fresh tariff threats that ignited global trade war fears and relentless foreign fund outflows dented investor sentiment, analysts said.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has deferred the diktat requiring foreign investors to disclose their mobile number, email addresses and income details to depositories, a move believed to be aimed at curbing practices such as round tripping and money laundering. "Based on the representations received from MIIs (market infrastructure institutions), Sebi has decided to extend the deadline for making 6-KYC attributes mandatory for new accounts opened by 1 month to July 1, 2021. "Participants are accordingly requested to take note of the above and ensure compliance," NSDL said in a note on Tuesday. The regulator is also meeting custodians this week to thrash out a solution and address investors' concerns.
On average, stocks that debuted last year are down 37 per cent from their peak levels.
'Even if India is attractive, FPIs currently lack the funds to invest, as money is being redirected to the US.'
Equity benchmark indices are facing massive corrections, with the NSE Nifty declining over 14 per cent from its lifetime high hit in September last year due to several negative triggers like stretched valuations, foreign fund exodus, disappointing quarterly earnings and rising global trade tensions dragging markets lower. The BSE benchmark Sensex hit its record peak of 85,978.25 on September 27 last year, and the Nifty also reached a lifetime high of 26,277.35 on the same day.
'Expect FPIs to continue selling for several months until the rupee stabilises.'
In an eventful week ahead, stock market investors will take cues from major events like the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the upcoming Union Budget and Q3 earnings, analysts said.
India and the US are expected to have smooth trade negotiations after US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a productive meeting during Modi's visit to the White House last month, Stephen A Schwarzman, chairman, chief executive officer, and co-founder of one of the world's largest alternative investment firms, Blackstone Group, said in Mumbai on Wednesday.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India have crossed the $1 trillion milestone in the April 2000-September 2024 period, firmly establishing the country's reputation as a safe and key investment destination globally. According to data from the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), the cumulative amount of FDI, including equity, reinvested earnings and other capital, stood at $1,033.40 billion during the said period.
'Expect India to keep doing well irrespective of geopolitics.'
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) $10 billion US dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction for three years received bids worth $16.23 billion on Friday, reflecting robust demand amid persistent liquidity deficit in the banking system. This was the second swap auction by the central bank after it infused $5 billion via six month-swap on January 31.
Mutual funds (MFs) are likely to surpass foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in terms of anchor investments in initial public offerings (IPOs) for the second consecutive year. In calendar year 2023 so far, MFs have invested Rs 5,577 crore as anchor investors, compared to the Rs 5,417 crore invested by FPIs this year. In 2022, MFs put in Rs 9,026 crore as anchor investment, 21 per cent higher than the FPI tally of Rs 7,105 crore. This marked the first time since 2014 that MFs had outpaced FPIs in anchor investments.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Sun Pharma, Reliance Industries, Infosys, Tata Motors, Infosys, Titan, Maruti and NTPC were among the major laggards. Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
Expected cut in withholding tax for debt investments.
Trading activity of foreign investors and global trends will be the major driving factors for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. Leading stock exchanges BSE and NSE have declared a trading holiday on November 20 for assembly elections in Maharashtra. Elections to the 288-member state legislative assembly will be held on November 20, and votes will be counted on November 23.
Corporate earnings from blue-chips like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Donald Trump's swearing-in as the US President, and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors to drive equity markets this week, analysts said. Trump will be sworn in as the US president for a second term on Monday. This week, several key Nifty-50 companies, including BPCL, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Dr Reddy's, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel and ICICI Bank are scheduled to announce their financial results.
RBI's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings and global cues would be the major driving factors for equity markets this week, analysts said adding that the impact of the Union Budget could linger on this week. Trading activity of foreign investors will also be a key driver for the markets, experts noted. "US and India's manufacturing PMI for January to be released on Monday, will be the key macro data to watch out for.
Stock market participants would track global trends and foreign investors' trading activity in a holiday-shortened week ahead, amid lack of any major domestic trigger in sight, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Christmas.
Investors will take cues from the December quarter corporate earnings, with blue-chips like Infosys, Reliance Industries scheduled to report their results this week, in addition, inflation data and trading activity of foreign investors will also be crucial in dictating market trends, analysts said.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports jumped over 5 per cent. NTPC, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Zomato, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, IndusInd Bank and Maruti were among the other big gainers. From the 30-share pack, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and UltraTech Cement were the other laggards.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato cracked nearly 7 per cent. Power Grid, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma and UltraTech Cement were the other major laggards. In contrast, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consultancy Services and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
Quarterly earnings of corporates, trading activity of foreign investors and inflation data are the key factors that are expected to drive the momentum in the equity markets this week, analysts said.
Alternative Investment Fund refers to any fund established or incorporated in India which is a privately pooled investment vehicle that collects funds from sophisticated investors, whether Indian or foreign.
Equity markets this week will take cues from global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings, with TCS kick-starting the results calendar on Thursday, analysts said.
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