WPI inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global cues would dictate trends in the stock market this week, analysts said.
Stock markets are likely to trade in a range-bound manner in a holiday-shortened week where trading activity of foreign investors, currency movement and global macroeconomic data announcements are expected to drive sentiments, analysts said. Several global markets may see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays, an expert said.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew a substantial amount from Indian equities in the first half of March, driven by geopolitical tensions, rupee depreciation, and concerns about crude oil prices.
Foreign investors fled Indian equities in 2025 at a scale never seen before, pulling out a record Rs 1.6 lakh crore (USD 18 billion) as volatile currency movements, global trade tensions, especially potential US tariffs, and stretched valuations eroded risk appetite, though flows are expected to turn sustainably positive in 2026.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 21,000 crore (around $2.3 billion) from Indian equities over the last four trading sessions amid deteriorating global risk sentiment triggered by the West Asia crisis.
Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil price fluctuations, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will significantly influence the Indian equity market this week.
A fall in the Nifty 50 to around 19,000 is not impossible, but that would likely require nuclear options to be exercised.
'The next phase of India's IPO cycle will be defined by quality, pricing discipline and investor selectivity.'
Markets regulator Sebi has proposed introducing a single window access for low risk foreign investors seeking to participate in the Indian securities market, a move aimed at simplifying compliance and enhancing the country's attractiveness as an investment destination.
Foreign investors have remained cautious ahead of the Union Budget amid expectations of limited policy changes.
Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained in a selling mode in January, withdrawing nearly Rs 36,000 crore (about $3.97 billion) as global uncertainties persisted. Meanwhile, a higher securities transaction tax (STT) proposed in the Union Budget may weigh on overseas investor participation in the near future.
The Enforcement Directorate (ED) is seeking an expedited trial against Congress leader P Chidambaram in the Aircel-Maxis and INX Media money laundering cases, having submitted the required prosecution sanction to the court.
'The day that the market realises that they've overspent (on AI) and there's a sudden collapse in the capex, then India can start outperforming again.'
Macroeconomic data, global geopolitical developments and rising concerns over AI-related disruptions are likely to dictate sentiment in the stock market next week, even as investors may remain cautious amid ongoing volatility, according to analysts.
'Uncertainty level A in the morning, uncertainty level B in the afternoon. If I answer about tariff rates now, I'll be outdated by the evening.'
Inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global trends would dictate sentiment in the stock market this week, according to analysts.
The first day of the year 2026 was positive for the debt market with foreign investors buying a net domestic debt of Rs 7,524 crore, the highest single-day inflow since May 29 last year.
Trade deals ease risks for Indian equities, but weak demand and stretched valuations raise questions over whether optimism -- especially in smallcaps -- can turn into a sustained bull run, points out Debashis Basu.
The SC has gone a step further to state that even if one were to not apply the codified GAAR provisions, the judicial GAAR would continue to apply, point out Pranav Sayta and Bhargav Selarka.
This single amendment, unfortunately, overshadows much of the Budget's promise, explains Harsh Roongta.
Global emerging market investors are sharply cutting back on India, making it the largest underweight market, as funds rotate into China, Hong Kong, and South Korea amid tariff shocks and valuation concerns.
Foreign portfolio investors have started 2026 on a cautious note, extending their selling streak from last year by withdrawing Rs 7,608 crore ($846 million) from Indian equities in the first two trading sessions of January. The withdrawal of funds followed the largest outflow of Rs 1.66 lakh crore ($18.9 billion) recorded in 2025, triggered by volatile currency movements, global trade tensions and concerns over potential US tariffs, and stretched market valuations.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty dived sharply by nearly 2 per cent on Sunday after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed a hike in the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on derivatives. Reversing the early gains, the 30-share BSE Sensex plunged sharply by 2,370.36 points or 2.88 per cent to slide below the 80,000-mark at 79,899.42 in afternoon trade as the finance minister announced a hike in STT on futures contracts to 0.05 per cent from the current 0.02 per cent.
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew over Rs 22,530 crore ($2.5 billion) from Indian equities so far this month amid rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar, continuing their selling streak from last year. This came following an outflow of Rs 1.66 lakh crore ($18.9 billion) recorded in 2025, triggered by volatile currency movements, global trade tensions and concerns over potential US tariffs and stretched market valuations.
The rupee, which was the worst performing Asian currency in 2025 and also in January, was the best performing Asian currency on Tuesday.
FPIs net sold equities worth Rs 1.7 trillion in 2025 -- the highest annual net sale on record.
Indian equities declined on Friday, with the benchmark Nifty posting its worst weekly fall since September, as foreign investor sentiment remained weak amid tepid earnings growth and little progress on the India-US trade front.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
'The trade deficit in some sectors is huge and that is an area of opportunity to localise.'
'Given that India underperformed emerging markets by 28 per cent in 2025, the worst performance in over 30 years, the timing of the sharp STT hike could have been better.'
Stock market is gearing up for an eventful week ahead where key triggers such as quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and the upcoming Union Budget for 2026-27 would grab the limelight, analysts said.
'For those in for the long haul, this is a God-given opportunity.' 'Your market is falling despite strong fundamentals, and such a clear roadmap has been announced.'
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets are expected to track Q3 corporate earnings from several blue-chip firms, including TCS and Infosys, while inflation data and global trends would also dictate investors' sentiment, analysts said.
The rupee slumped 5 per cent in 2025 as persistent capital outflows from foreign investors, alongside heightened dollar demand from importers, making it one of the worst-performing Asian currencies.
Companies are squeezing more profits from their operations relative to the capital they put to work, the highest now since 2011. Profit after tax relative to capital employed came in at 10.47 per cent in September, shows data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), higher than the 8.41 per cent seen in September last year. This is the highest since March 2010.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be major driving factors for market movement this week, analysts said. Unabated capital infusion by domestic institutional investors have supported the positive trend in the stock market last week, traders said.
I am inclined to believe that the Venezuela adventure is not an indication of American strength, alas, but rather of American weakness, points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
'The first time India has seen two consecutive blockbuster IPO years.'
A host of macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would dictate investors' sentiment in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides, auto sales data will be closely tracked, experts noted.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Investor Information - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances