The reason: The consensus was that the US economy was headed for a slowdown. The global economy is unlikely to slow down significantly.
The Indian economy is likely to post better than anticipated growth in the second quarter (July-September) owing to robust urban consumption and expansion in services, a Business Standard analysis of high-frequency indicators showed. While gross domestic product growth in the September quarter is expected to come below the 7.8 per cent print in the June quarter due to a favourable base fading, analysts say the print will be much closer to 7 per cent than the 6.5 per cent anticipated earlier. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated 6.5 per cent growth for July-September, last month Governor Shaktikanta Das said the growth figure would surprise on the upside.
The government has exhausted only 39 per cent of its fiscal deficit target in the first half of FY24.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors rose to a 14-month high of 12.1 per cent in August 2023 against 4.2 per cent a year ago, mainly due to expansion in production of coal, crude oil, and natural gas, according to the official data released on Friday. The expansion in August is the highest since June 2022, when it was 13.2 per cent. The production of refinery products, steel, cement and electricity also grew in August, the data showed.
South Asia has the highest gender inequality in the world, says Kalpana Kochhar.
A step away from nuclear weapons being used in conflicts, warns Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
With the economy heading for a double-digit inflation due to the spiralling food prices and costlier fuels and manufactured articles, the Reserve Bank is expected to hike its key policy rates next month, say leading economists.
A piece of slightly negative news can cause a serious setback, warns Debashis Basu.
Old ideas contained in the heads of old economists still dominate. That's not good, asserts T C A Srinivasa Raghavan.
India needs to cuts interest rates and expand public expenditure if it wants to boost growth rate, says Sunanda Sen.
The Rs 2,000 note withdrawal decision and response to it so far suggest that the move can help boost FY24 GDP growth to beyond 6.5 per cent estimated by the RBI, a report said on Monday. The real GDP growth for the first quarter of FY24 will come at 8.1 per cent with an upward bias and the Reserve Bank of India's 6.5 per cent estimate can also be exceeded, economists at the country's largest lender SBI said. "We expect Q1 FY24 GDP growth at 8.1 per cent with an upward bias due to the impact of Rs 2000 note withdrawal event...this reinforces our projection that FY24 GDP could be higher than 6.5 per cent, basis the RBI estimate," a note said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday met prominent US personalities from different walks of life, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk who asserted that India has more promise than any other large country and that he is incredibly excited about its future.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
Even if no statistical jugglery is afoot, only to warn that the 'noise' in the numbers should be eliminated in order to hear the underlying music, without distortion, warns T N Ninan.
Jean Dreze, who is also member of the Central Employment Guarantee Council, Ritika Khera and Anirban Kar - all from the Delhi School of Economics -- have pointed out that though bank payment of wages is seen as a magic solution to delayed payment and non-payment of wages under the Rs 25,000-crore (Rs 250-billion) scheme, making bank payments mandatory is a step taken without necessary precautions.
'Fear is also a great impetus to push people in the right direction.' 'So, everyone who has touched black money is scared and I'm very happy about it.'
With not much hope on robust tax collections and disinvestment, economists peg the gap between the government's expenditure and receipts to be between six and seven per cent for this financial year.
'Had they agreed to our demands that we raised two years ago, we would have never started our agitation again.'
Indian economists hope national elections produce a stable government committed to strong growth, privatisation, infrastructure investment and outsourcing.\n\n\n\n
Eminent economist Prabhat Patnaik has contested government's argument that value added tax will be revenue-neutral in the long run, saying the very nature of the new tax system is such that the states are sure to lose revenue.
India will catch up with China by the year 2020 in terms of economic growth on the strength of its better efficiency of investments, an Asian Development Bank economist has said.
The judiciary, the police, the lawyers and the public will have to know the new laws. It will also endanger settled jurisprudence on the old laws and open up all sorts of minor and major problems that currently do not exist. Whose then was asking for the change? Not the judges or police or lawyers or citizens, points out Aakar Patel.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
''The outcome of the state polls may lead to some strategy-related permutations and combinations and the markets may extrapolate it to the likely outcome in the general elections.'
Rajan was expected to join the search committee to appoint three external members of a new six-member RBI Monetary Policy Committee
The ongoing financial sector crisis in the United States and its repercussions on developed markets worldwide will result in lower capital inflows into emerging markets like India, economists and government officials said on Thursday.
It is thanks to the policy of liberalisation conceived by Manmohan Singh and enforced by P V Narasimha that the Indian economy has now become the world's 5th largest economy by nominal GDP, asserts Dr Sudhir Bisht.
Economists expect the Reserve Bank to hike its key short-term lending and borrowing rates on July 27 to tame rising inflation, which is already in double-digits.
Despite high headline numbers, the output of one-third of the segments in the manufacturing sector in August stood below even that in the same month in 2011-12, when the new index of industrial production (IIP) series started. This is despite the fact that manufacturing grew 9.3 per cent in the month, driving up IIP growth to a 14-month high of 10.3 per cent. Part of it is due to the devastation of these product categories by lockdowns induced by Covid waves and subdued export conditions, while part of it needs to be assessed further.
The 12th Finance Commission on Monday held a meeting with leading economists and economic administrators in Chennai to elicit their views on current issues concerning inter-governmental resource transfers.\n\n\n\n
However, the finance ministry is hopeful of keeping its fiscal deficit under control.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased for the eighth consecutive month to 4.73 per cent in January on easing prices of manufactured items, fuel and power. The wholesale price-index (WPI) based inflation rate was 4.95 per cent in December 2022 and 13.68 per cent in January 2022. Inflation in food articles, however, rose to 2.38 per cent in January, from (-) 1.25 per cent in December, 2022.
'Our study finds that only about 20% of Indians are vegetarians and the rest of the 80% are non-vegetarians or meat-eaters.'
India showed revival signs in the March quarter.
RBI had reduced the key policy rate, the repo, in consecutive policy meets, in January and in March, by 25 basis points each.
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Thursday. India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
Suddenly, demand-supply mismatch is no longer offered as the standard plausible explanation.
While the country's unemployment rate is falling, the quality of employment seems to have taken a hit. The pace of formalisation slowed in the five months of the current financial year (April-August) with more than half a million fewer formal jobs created in the period compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO). The payroll data showed that cumulatively 4.92 million new subscribers joined the social security organisation between April-August this year, compared to 5.51 million subscribers in the same period in the previous year, reflecting a 10.7 per cent decline in the number of new payrolls created.
Reserve Bank of India's former governor Raghuram Rajan on Wednesday joined Rahul Gandhi during the Congress-led Bharat Jodo Yatra in Rajasthan.
The general elections in April/May 2024 are expected to add volatility to the Indian markets, keeping investors on their toes.
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