New Delhi's timing couldn't have been worse, both for India's fledgling electric vehicle (EV) sector and prospective electric bike buyers. It was hard to miss the perfect storm brewing for India's EV industry since early 2022. On one hand, you had several accidents involving battery fires that unnerved consumers; on the other, uncertainty had crept in over subsidies.
Smaller players manufacturing electric two-wheelers (E2Ws) are unlikely to raise prices of their models initially in 2024 in order to ensure volumes do not drop. The prices of E2Ws range from Rs 90,000 to Rs 1 lakh, the players being Lohia Auto, Godawari Electric, Emobi, etc. As India's E2W sector gears up to go past one million in 2024, manufacturers are likely to maintain price stability, underpinned by strategic independence from subsidies under Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric (and Hybrid) Vehicles II (FAME II), localisation efforts, sustainability initiatives, and a focus on affordability.
Ratings agency ICRA on Wednesday revised downwards growth forecast for the domestic passenger vehicles industry to 8-11 per cent in the ongoing fiscal from the earlier estimate of 14-17 per cent on account of the ongoing semiconductor shortage. Similarly, for the two-wheeler segment, it said the volumes are expected to contract by 1-4 per cent in FY2022 against an earlier prediction of 6-8 per cent growth as affordability and demand sentiments of target clientele was hit sharply by the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. With around 5 lakh units of production lost by various automakers in the passenger vehicles segment due to the semiconductor shortage, ICRA said the earnings loss for the OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) could be around Rs 1,800 crore to Rs 2,000 crore for the ongoing fiscal.
India will have 30 per cent of its two-wheeler industry turning electric by 2030 as new manufacturers lead the shift, said a report on Monday. Passenger vehicles will be 15 per cent electric and the three-wheeler segment 75 per cent electric by 2030, said the report by BNP Paribas called 'India Autos-Electric vehicles: Minutes to midnight'. "We see FY22 as the year of inflection for the two-wheeler EV industry, with an accelerated EV adoption helped by incentives, wider availability, model launches, rise in crude prices and improved general awareness. We see 30 per cent of the 2W industry turning electric by 2030; the pace of incentive withdrawal presents an upside/downside risk," the report (India Autos - Electric vehicles: Minutes to midnight) said.
Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicle (SMEV) on Thursday said sales of EVs in India fell 20 per cent in the financial year 2020-21 to 236,802 units. In 2019-20 sales of electric vehicles (EVs), including electric two-wheelers (E2W), electric three-wheelers (E3W) and electric four-wheelers (E4W), stood at 295,683 units. For FY21, the E2W segment sales declined by 6 per cent to 143,837 units, as compared to 152,000 units in FY20, SMEV said in a statement, adding that the FY21 E2W sales included 40,836 high-speed and 103,000 low-speed E2W. The E3W segment registered sales of 88,378 units as against 140,683 units sold in FY20.
The EV industry is at an inflection point and batteries will play a critical role ahead -- batteries and related components typically constitute 35-45 per cent of an EV's costs.
Nearly a decade ago, the first fully electric vehicle (EV) caught fire on the road in the US. It was a model from Tesla, the world's most admired EV maker. A metal fragment punctured the underbelly of the vehicle, penetrating its battery pack, leading to a fire. Indian lawmakers and automakers have had nine years to study the incident (in fact, three Tesla Model Ss caught fire in two months in 2013) but seem to have learnt little.
as the FAME II deadline of March 31, 2024, nears, EV manufacturers are worried about their investments and future plans.
Sales of total electric vehicles in India are expected to be around 10 lakh units this year, equal to what was sold collectively in the last 15 years, mainly riding on the good traction witnessed by electric two-wheelers, Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles (SMEV) said on Thursday. In 2021, the sales of electric two-wheelers (E2Ws) in the country jumped over two-fold at 233,971 units driven by a good traction of high-speed scooters as compared to 100,736 units in 2020, SMEV said in a statement. "We haven't seen better days than the last few months in the entire EV journey.
'Through volume numbers and unit sales one can see, we are not making a loss'
Subsidies have been stopped for several manufacturers that are under investigation for alleged violations of local-sourcing rules.
With just a month left in this financial year, electric two-wheeler sales, so far, are at just 62 per cent of the ambitious target of 1 million units set for 2022-23 by the NITI Aayog. According to VAHAN data, compiled by the Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles (SMEV), 620,006 units of electric two-wheelers were sold across the country in FY23 until February 21. Though the industry may miss the 1-million target, sales in FY23 are already up 146 per cent from 249,621 units sold in FY22.
Passenger Vehicle makers are likely to see their cumulative earnings at an operating level erode by Rs 1,800-2,000 crore in the year ending March 2022 on account of the shortage of semiconductors, rating agency Icra said at a webinar on Wednesday. The industry, it pointed out, is estimated to lose production of 500,000 units at the end of FY22 due to the chronovc shortage the chip, which is critical in safety, entertainment and the various other smart features of a car. "In absence of the chip crisis, the industry volumes are likely to have exceeded the all-time peak annual volumes." Icra has pared its growth estimates for the PV market from the earlier 10-14 per cent to 8-11 per cent now in FY22.
'I have personally been very keen on investing in lithium ion battery technology for some time.'
